Quebec 2014 - another election that never was

[RogueBeaver]

Given the numerous leaks of recent weeks, I figured a thread might as well be started. (Credit to lilTommy for the layout) The minority PQ government of Premier Pauline Marois, barely a year in office, is increasingly likely to call a snap election for Dec. 9 or 16. The National Assembly would be dissolved after provincewide municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 4. PQ is gearing up for a possible campaign, with campaign offices rented, candidate nominations set to begin shortly, and everyone primed for a green light. PQ is tied with the Liberals in the polls, but detailed breakdowns suggest a jump-ball minority of either party - more likely the PQ, given their advantages among Francophone and rural voters, plus the very strong pro-incumbent trend of recent years. The PQ has come under fire for their highly controversial Charter of Quebec Values and poor economic performance, while corruption issues have dogged the Liberals consistently for several years.

National Assembly standings:

PQ: 54
PLQ: 48
CAQ: 18
QS: 2
IND: 1
VAC: 2

[DC Al Fine]

Damn, I thought an election had actually been called

[MaxQue]

Damn, I thought an election had actually been called

None will be before the municipal elections on November 3.

[Leftbehind]

Any progress for QS likely?

[DC Al Fine]

Any progress for QS likely?

QS is polling a few points above their previous result. They might pick up another seat in Sainte Marie-Saint Jacques where they came 10% behind the PQ last time.

[DL]

The conventional wisdom is that a Quebec election this fall is now much LESS likely. The roll out of the charter has gone very badly for the PQ what with Marois' plans being condemned by THREE former PQ premiers and public support being much much weaker than the PQ had been counting on. Polls have been very mixed and there is more and more fear that a snap election would boot Marois out of power...so I think they will sit tight.

[RogueBeaver]

What conventional wisdom? Nothing I'm reading in the French papers. As for the premiers, they take the CAQ's position. Marois wants flash polarization in the doughnut and certain rural areas. Granted this is from 2 weeks ago, but look at the intensity gap: in Montreal RMR 31% "completely agree" to 13% "completely disagreeing", while rural areas support it 2-1, with a 38/14 intensity gap in favour.

[DL]

The Charter is turned into a wet fire cracker and it has not led to any "bounce" in PQ support - why would she risk losing power in a snap election when by holding off she can have her limousine and extra pay as a premier for another year or more?

[RogueBeaver]

I can see your argument, but the final decision will be whether they think there's a good enough shot of winning a majority. Waiting till later could mean an economic ballot question when less than 100 net new jobs have been created over the past year. We need some new polling: last CROP had a 35/30/18 spread, from mid-September. If an election were held today I'd guess a PQ minority based on the reasons mentioned earlier. Plus the PLQ has more corruption clouds over their head with UPAC and CAQ's bad polls/Duscheneau libel suit. All in all I'd say slightly better than even odds.

The PQ's reasoning, cribbed from the JdM:

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My guess is that the opposition parties would fight on the economy as usual, especially the PLQ given their inherent disadvantage in identity fights.

[MaxQue]

I agree with Rogue. I have seen no signs of what DL is talking.

[DL]

There is no question that Marois cynical plan was to rev up xenophobic sentiments and go for an election in December - the problem is it doesn't seem to be working. Polls still have her behind and when all is said and done - politicians do not call elections any earlier than they have to unless they think they are almost certain to win - right now polls indicate that Marois would probably lose. Maybe she figures that a 25% chance of winning in December is better than a 5% chance of winning in 2014 - but we shall see.

[RogueBeaver]

Last polls suggested a jump-ball minority of either party, which isn't anywhere near good enough, as you said. Can only wait a few weeks and find out.

[MaxQue]

There is no question that Marois cynical plan was to rev up xenophobic sentiments and go for an election in December - the problem is it doesn't seem to be working. Polls still have her behind and when all is said and done - politicians do not call elections any earlier than they have to unless they think they are almost certain to win - right now polls indicate that Marois would probably lose. Maybe she figures that a 25% chance of winning in December is better than a 5% chance of winning in 2014 - but we shall see.

It is working, when you go outside of the insulated world of Montreal (which is not relevent to the result of the election, as most seats are safe for the moment).

[DL]

First of all, even outside of Montreal, opinion on the charter is still quite divided and a lot of people seem to like the idea of it "in theory" but also think it goes too far. However, I also have my doubts to as to how many Quebecers will see the Marois charter as a "vote determining issue". The people who are totally against it certainly will - but most of those people were anti-PQ to begin with...I think that outside Montreal you have a lot of people who i would describe as "passively pro-charter in theory" - when asked they would rather not have to have any of those yucky Muslim women and their garb falling into their field of vision - but I don't think this is all that big an issue for most people - especially when the Quebec economy is going off a cliff and the PQ government has been a total failure on almost every level. 

[MaxQue]

The Charter is a success, the goal was to bring back populists who left for the CAQ.

[DL]

The Charter is a success, the goal was to bring back populists who left for the CAQ.

I have yet to see any evidence that this has happened...if anything most polls show that defectors from CAQ are going Quebec Liberal over PQ by about a 2-1 margin.

[RogueBeaver]

On another subject, Radio-Canada reporting that PKP hasn't ruled out entering politics. Things could be arranged if need be, even with the base. Not now, not immediately, but maybe. He did reconcile with them a decade ago but wasn't ready to join in those days. If he ran it would be as an economic spokesman to boost the party there. One of the core elements of this rumour is that he'd be Marois' dauphin. Michel David also discussed it in his column, as did Hebert in hers. David says that he could be parachuted into the Cabinet from outside, for which there is precedent. Bouchard brought in Legault in the '90s and Levesque brought in union leader Francine Lalonde, who was thumped by Bourassa in the by-election.

[DL]

The PQ used to try to bill itself as a progressive social democratic party with close ties to unions in Quebec. it would be quite amusing to see them give a major role to PKP who is an ultra rightwing anti-union business tycoon who could best be described as the Quebec equivalent of Rupert Murdoch!

[Kevinstat]

politicians do not call elections any earlier than they have to unless they think they are almost certain to win

If you're a majority government, I'd agree with that.  But if you can't count on being able to serve a full term and think your chances are better now than a year from now when the other parties might decide to pass a no-confidence resolution then I could see someone chancing it.  I'm sure British Labourites wish James Callaghan had called an election in the summer of 1978.  Of course a 1978 election would have only been a year +/- before the deadline so it wasn't quite the same situation.  But basically, when you don't have exclusive control of when the next election is, the calculations you have to make are different.

Oh, now I see you had already alluded to that possible analysis of Marois's below:

Maybe she figures that a 25% chance of winning in December is better than a 5% chance of winning in 2014 - but we shall see.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed 100% w/this.

[RogueBeaver]

Public school graduation rates continue dropping: now down to 63% provincewide, 75% for Anglo public schools and 62% for Francophones. On Montreal Island that number is 46%. Now that's what I call a 5-alarm fire, politically speaking. Private school rate is 87%, FWIW.

New Leger is out. Some highlights: PQ leads 41-26-19 among Francophone voters, PLQ leads 41-30 in Montreal RMR and 42-28 in Quebec City, PQ leads 39-30 in ROQ. For the charter, topline is 46/41 approve but 53/33 among Francophones and 52/34 in ROQ. 45% say the economy's the same, 41% say it's deteriorated. TCTC projects that as 60-58-5-2, detailed projections here.

More from the Journal on why Marois wants to go now, ballot question and polls aside: retirements, worry that a full CAQ collapse would benefit the Liberals, and not wanting to blow their window like Charest did.

[njwes]

Why are the Francophone public schools' grad rates so shockingly low? (My French reading skills aren't quite up to snuff)

[RogueBeaver]

Why are the Francophone public schools' grad rates so shockingly low? (My French reading skills aren't quite up to snuff)

It varies across the province. For instance one of the Quebec City boards has a 75% graduation rate, a major Montreal Anglo board 75%. I misquoted a bit: two of the Montreal boards have a 46% rate, not the island as a whole. The numbers are improving a bit but only if you extend it to those who take 6-7 years to graduate instead of the usual 5. Then there's 65% of girls graduating on time and 50% of boys. Overall the number's declined 1% in the past 2 years, so while not awful still going in the wrong direction.

[urlhttp://www.mels.gouv.qc.ca/en/dossiers-majeurs/student-retention-and-student-success/action-stategy-on-student-retention-and-student-success/a-rising-success-rate/]Here's an old Ministry of Education report [/url] - their projections about graduation rates were incorrectly optimistic (predicted 75% in 2010, in reality 63.5% in 2011), but they do mention some groups in need of help. 30% of boys drop out, 20% of girls, 35% disadvantaged and 40% of immigrants. All those numbers are provincewide from 2010. I don't expect those numbers have changed. As for solutions... I haven't seen any. Certainly throwing more money won't do it.

[njwes]

Still though, the Francophone rates for the province as a whole seem terrible. Is there any particular reason? Economic/social/cultural etc? How does that compare to other provinces' graduation rates?

[RogueBeaver]

From 2008: Alberta 68%, Ontario 70%, 75% nationally. So we're only a bit behind Alberta and Ontario. No reason why we can't pass them.

Meanwhile the top-rated public and private schools are mostly French.