Absolute best case scenario for him would be that he loses 3 to 1 among blacks.
This is extremely optimistic. Bush got around 16% in 2004? If Christie got 25% of the black vote, and kept the white vote in the upper 50's, he'd be looking at about 61% of the popular vote and at least winning 40 states.
Were talking about the gubernatorial (governor) election here, not a presidential election.
But lets say we kept all the 2012 numbers the same and only changed the black vote to 25% republican.
Lets say:
White (72%): 59% Christie, 39% Dem
Black (13%): 74% Dem,
25% ChristieHispanic (10%): 71% Dem, 27% Christie
Asian (3%): 73% Dem, 26% Christie
Other (2%): 58% Dem, 38% Christie
That would give us:
49.97% Christie
48.15% Dem
Only a 1.82% win for Christie. Think of it this way, the best racial group the republicans do best with would obviously be whites, if whites only go 59% for republicans, than how would it go 61% overall including with the massive defeat republicans get among other groups? If 2012 numbers were the same (including blacks at 93%), republicans would have to get
78% of the white vote to get 61% nationally.
74% with them getting 25% of the black vote and nothing else changed from 2012. However, I suspect republicans will do better in the future with Hispanics and Asians, so realistically the white vote would be lower than 78% in a 61% national win.
