Election Night 2014...Wait What?

[PolitiJunkie]

This is going to be a short timeline of Election Night 2014. Each race will be treated based on its current state (i.e. any candidate who has already declined to join a certain race will not be in the race, and any candidate who has already entered a certain race will be in the race).
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Good evening, I'm Wolf Blitzer, and thank you for tuning into CNN's coverage of Election Night 2014. Tonight, Democrats are expected to make narrow gains in the House and in the Governorships, but the general consensus is that Republicans will still hold the House and a majority of Executive Mansions. The real contest tonight lies in the Senate races, of which control looks like a complete toss-up. Several races that looked like easy Republican pick-ups or holds have tightened within the last several months. At the same time, however, Democrats are playing defense in several states, including a few they did not think they would have to. The first polls close in ten minutes, but we expect many races will remain too close to call for several hours.

7 PM
It is now 7 PM, and polls have just closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. And right away, CNN is ready to make some projections. First, we'll look at the Senate races.

In Georgia, a hotly contested race for the seat vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, between Democratic nominee businesswoman Michelle Nunn, the daughter of a popular former Georgia Senator, Sam Nunn, and Republican nominee Representative Phil Gingrey, the race is currently too close to call.

In Kentucky, the other major seat in which Republicans are playing defense, between incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell and Democratic challenger Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, the race is also too close to call.

In South Carolina, two Senate races are taking place tonight. In the special election, we can project that Senator Tim Scott has defeated Democratic challenger State Representative Leon Stavrinakis, making this race a Republican Hold. In the regularly scheduled Senate race, Lindsey Graham barely survived a primary challenge from several other Republicans including State Senator Lee Bright and businessman Richard Cash. In the general election, Graham faces State Representative James Smith, and this race is too early to call, with Graham leading. In the midst of Graham's primary fight, many believed the Democrats should have contested this race more fiercely, potentially even by recruiting former Governor Jim Hodges, but it eventually became clear that the race was reasonably safe regardless of the Republican nominee and that the Democrats needed to spend more time and money in other, more significant contests.



Finally, in Virginia, popular Senator Mark Warner has won reelection easily over token opposition, Republican activist Howie Lind, making this race a Democratic Hold. Warner is considered a possible candidate for President or Vice President in the upcoming 2016 election.



Senate Map as of 7 PM Closings

Key: Dark Red = Democratic Hold; Light Red = Democratic Pickup; Dark Blue = Republican Hold; Light Blue = Republican Pickup; Green = Too Close to Call; Yellow = One Republican Hold & One Race Too Close To Call

Next, let's look at gubernatorial races:

In Georgia, Governor Nathan Deal is fighting for his political life. Deal was severely weakened after barely squeaking out a win in the Republican primary against credible challengers John Barge and David Pennington. To add insult to injury, he faces State Senator Jason Carter in the general election, a popular figure in Georgia and the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. Though this race definitely at least tilts toward Governor Deal, it will be a tough fight and the race is currently too close to call.

In South Carolina, Governor Nikki Haley also faces a very difficult reelection bid. She has been in a dead heat with formidable Democratic challenger State Senator Vincent Sheheen in all polls conducted since late 2012, and this may be one of the closest gubernatorial races of the night. Right now, it is also too close to call.

Finally, in Vermont, we can project that Governor Peter Shumlin has won reelection by a sizable margin over Progressive Party nominee Martha Abbott, another Democratic Hold. Shumlin did not face Republican opposition this time around.

Gubernatorial Map as of 7 PM Closings

Finally, let's look at the House in these six states:

In Georgia, we can project that Sanford Bishop (D; GA-2), Lynn Westmoreland (R; GA-3), Hank Johnson (D; GA-4), John Lewis (D; GA-5), Tom Price (R; GA-6), Rob Woodall (R; GA-7), Austin Scott (R; GA-8), Doug Collins (R; GA-9), David Scott (D; GA-13), and Tom Graves (R; GA-14) have all won reelection easily. Additionally, we can project that in Georgia's 1st, 10th, and 11th districts, Republicans State Senator Buddy Carter, Representative Donna Sheldon, and State Senator Barry Loudermilk have been elected to replace Representatives Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, and Phil Gingrey respectively, all of whom retired to seek the open Senate seat. The only House race still outstanding in Georgia is the 12th District, John Barrow's seat. Barrow is one of the few remaining southern Democrats in a heavily Republican district, and though he is a favorite to win tonight, the race is currently too early to call.

In Indiana, we can project that all nine incumbent Representatives have won reelection. The only race thought to even potentially be competitive tonight was Indiana's 2nd District, held by Jackie Walorski. This is the seat that Joe Donnelly held before being elected to the Senate two years ago. However, Walorski has won reelection decisively tonight in this modestly Republican district. Indiana will once again send two Democrats and seven Republicans to the House.

In Kentucky, we can also project that all six incumbents have been reelected. Two races were thought to be potentially competitive: the third district, a D+4 district held by Democrat John Yarmuth, and the sixth district, an R+9 district held by Republican Andy Barr. However, neither received a particularly strong opponent, and both will return to Washington in January along with the other four Republican Representatives that Kentucky reelected tonight.

In South Carolina's 2nd through 7th districts, the incumbents have been reelected, all of which are Republicans with the exception of Jim Clyburn in South Carolina's 6th District. In South Carolina's 1st district, Republican State Senator Tom Davis, who defeated incumbent Mark Sanford in the Republican primary, has easily won election to that seat tonight. Like in Kentucky and Indiana, no House seat in South Carolina switched party hands tonight.

In Vermont, we can project that incumbent Representative of Vermont's At-Large District Peter Welch has won reelection.

And finally, in Virginia, we can project that all incumbents have won reelection with the exception of Scott Rigell, who represents Virginia's 2nd District. This race is still too close to call, and Rigell faces a tough challenge from former Representative Glenn Nye, who Rigell defeated in the Republican wave of 2010.

The polls will close in three more states, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio, at 7:30 PM. North Carolina and West Virginia have highly contested Senate races and Ohio has a highly contested gubernatorial race, so stay tuned!

[Tayya]

Staying tuned.

[badgate]

Keep it going! Cool idea

[PolitiJunkie]

7:30 PM

It is now 7:30 PM, and the polls have just closed in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio. While the highly contested Senate races in North Carolina and West Virginia, and the highly contested gubernatorial race in Ohio are still too close to call, and likely will be for quite some time, we are able to project the results of several House races.

In North Carolina, we can easily project that all thirteen incumbents have won reelection. As one of the most heavily gerrymandered states in the nation, the four safe Democratic seats and the nine safe Republican states will not switch hands tonight.

In Ohio, we are able to project the results of all seats except the 6th, 7th, and 14th districts, and like in North Carolina, it is good news for the incumbents. Four Democrats and nine Republicans will return to Washington D.C. for at least two more years. In the three outstanding races, the Republican incumbents are favored in each, but we will have to wait for more results to come in to call these races.

And in West Virginia, the only projection we can make is that incumbent Republican David McKinley has won reelection in the first district. The open seat in the Second District, vacated by Shelley Moore Capito to run for Senate, and Democratic incumbent Nick Rahall's seat in the Third District, are both being heavily contested and are too close to call at this time.

At 7:48 PM, we can also project that John Barrow has won reelection to his House seat, and that Lindsey Graham has won reelection to his Senate seat. Both races were too early to call when the polls closed at 7 PM but we can project them now.



We are still unable to project the result of Virginia's Second District, the Senate races in Kentucky and Georgia, or the gubernatorial races in South Carolina and Georgia.


The polls close in 16 states at the 8 PM hour, so stay tuned!

[PolitiJunkie]

8 PM

It is now nearly 8 PM, and polls are about to close in sixteen states. Before that, however, let's take a look at a few of the races that are still outstanding. The Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and West Virginia remain too close to call; with the exception of maybe North Carolina, most of these will likely not be called for hours. Likewise, the gubernatorial elections in Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio are still outstanding, and look to stay that way. However, we can make some projections regarding the outstanding House races. Right now, CNN can project that Representatives Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs of Ohio's 6th and 7th districts will both win reelection. These two Republican incumbents will return to Washington for two more years. The only Ohio race still outstanding is Ohio's 14th District, where Republican incumbent David Joyce is also leading, but we do not yet feel ready to call this race. We can also now project that Representative Nick Rahall, of West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district, will win reelection. Some thought he was highly vulnerable this year, but CNN can now project that he will win reelection. The open seat House race in West Virginia's 2nd District is still outstanding, as is the fiercely contested race in Virginia's 2nd District. Now, let's look at the races in the states that just closed.

In Alabama, we can project that Senator Jeff Sessions and Governor Robert Bentley will win reelection easily. We can also project that Republican incumbents in AL-2, AL-3, AL-4, and AL-5 have won reelection, and the Democratic incumbent in AL-7 has won reelection. In AL-1, Republican incumbent Bradley Byrne, who won the seat in a 2013 special election when Jo Bonner resigned, will win reelection. And finally, in Alabama's 6th Congressional District, incumbent Representative Spencer Bachus is retiring, and State Senator Scott Beason, who attempted to challenge Beason for the seat in 2012, has now won the open seat.





In Connecticut, we can project that all five Democratic incumbent Representatives have won reelection to the House. The gubernatorial election, between incumbent Democratic Governor Dan Malloy and Republican challenger Thomas C. Foley, former Ambassador to Ireland and Malloy's 2010 opponent, is too close to call at this time. Malloy is deeply unpopular in the state despite being a Democratic Governor in a blue state and the race has been extremely tight all year with Malloy leading by an average of 0.2 points in the compilation of all the polls.

In Delaware, we can project that Senator Chris Coons has won reelection easily against Republican challenger Tom Kovach, the President of the New Castle County Council. Additionally, incumbent Democratic Representative John Carney has also won reelection by a heavy margin.



In Florida, the gubernatorial election between incumbent Governor Rick Scott and former Governor Charlie Crist is too close to call. As early as 2012, Crist had been thought a heavy favorite to oust Governor Scott, but after barely emerging from a nasty primary battle against Florida Senate Minority Leader Nan Rich, the race has become much tighter, largely due to the difficulty Crist has faced appealing to the Democratic base due to the heavy criticism he faced from Rich due to his centrist policies and party change. Due to Scott's heavy unpopularity, Crist is still a slight favorite to win, but we'll be watching this race all night and most agree that tonight is a choice between the lesser of two evils. Florida has several competitive House races tonight, namely those in the 2nd, 10th, 18th, 22nd, and 26th districts. In all other districts, we can project that either the incumbent has won reelection, or, in districts where the Representative is retiring, the candidate from the incumbent's party has won the open seat. Many Democrats hoped FL-13 would be competitive due to their assumption that Bill Young, the longest-serving Republican member of the House, would retire from his slightly Democratic-leaning district, but he surprised everyone when, in late 2013, he announced that he would seek reelection to one final term. Young has also won reelection easily tonight. In the 2nd, 10th, and 13th districts, the Republican incumbents are all slight favorites to win tonight, and in the 22nd district, the Democratic incumbent is a slight favorite to win. In Florida's 18th District, represented by "baby of the House" Patrick Murphy, the race is a pure toss-up between Murphy and Republican challenger Florida State Representative Adam Hasner. We will be watching all five of these races closely tonight.

In Illinois, we can project that Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin has easily won reelection. We cannot, however, make a projection regarding the Governor's race, in which unpopular incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, who was extraordinarily lucky not to face a primary challenge, has been slightly trailing Republican challenger State Treasurer Dan Rutherford. The most closely watched House race in Illinois this year has been the 13th District, in which Republican incumbent Rodney Davis faces Democratic challenger Ann Callis, the former Chief Judge of Illinois's 3rd Judicial Circuit. Other races we are unable to call at this time include seats currently held by Democrats in the 10th, 11th, 12th, and 17th districts, but the Democratic incumbents are favored in all of them. Like with Florida, we will not go through every single other race, but we can tell you that, in the rest of the Illinois House races, that either the incumbent has won reelection, or, in districts where the Representative is retiring, the candidate from the incumbent's party has won the open seat.



In Maine, we can project that Senator Susan Collins has been reelected to the Senate, and that Representative Mike Michaud has been elected Governor of Maine. The race looked to be a close three-way contest between unpopular Republican incumbent Governor Paul Lepage, Congressman Michaud, and independent Eliot Cutler, but the contest changed massively when, in late 2013, the Democratic-controlled Maine legislature passed a Constitutional Amendment creating the office of Lieutenant Governor, and, in February of 2014, Cutler exited the race for Governor to run to be Maine's first Lieutenant Governor, and in turn was endorsed by Michaud. Thus, the race became a two-way contest and Michaud ran up leads by between 10-17 points in all polls done after Cutler's exit. Tonight, Mike Michaud will oust Governor Paul LePage, and Eliot Cutler will be elected Maine's first Lieutenant Governor. This is the first pickup we can project by either party tonight in any Senate, House, or Governor's race. We can also project that Congresswoman Chellie Pingree has won reelection to her House seat, and that State Senate Majority Leader Troy Dale Jackson has defeated former State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin for the seat Michaud will vacate to become Governor.

[Flake]

8 PM

It is now nearly 8 PM, and polls are about to close in sixteen states. Before that, however, let's take a look at a few of the races that are still outstanding. The Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and West Virginia remain too close to call; with the exception of maybe North Carolina, most of these will likely not be called for hours. Likewise, the gubernatorial elections in Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio are still outstanding, and look to stay that way. However, we can make some projections regarding the outstanding House races. Right now, CNN can project that Representatives Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs of Ohio's 6th and 7th districts will both win reelection. These two Republican incumbents will return to Washington for two more years. The only Ohio race still outstanding is Ohio's 14th District, where Republican incumbent David Joyce is also leading, but we do not yet feel ready to call this race. We can also now project that Representative Nick Rahall, of West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district, will win reelection. Some thought he was highly vulnerable this year, but CNN can now project that he will win reelection. The open seat House race in West Virginia's 2nd District is still outstanding, as is the fiercely contested race in West Virginia's 2nd District. Now, let's look at the races in the states that just closed.

[badgate]

I'm guessing the Democrats take WV 2 and the Republicans take WV 2 (1)

[PolitiJunkie]

8 PM

It is now nearly 8 PM, and polls are about to close in sixteen states. Before that, however, let's take a look at a few of the races that are still outstanding. The Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and West Virginia remain too close to call; with the exception of maybe North Carolina, most of these will likely not be called for hours. Likewise, the gubernatorial elections in Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio are still outstanding, and look to stay that way. However, we can make some projections regarding the outstanding House races. Right now, CNN can project that Representatives Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs of Ohio's 6th and 7th districts will both win reelection. These two Republican incumbents will return to Washington for two more years. The only Ohio race still outstanding is Ohio's 14th District, where Republican incumbent David Joyce is also leading, but we do not yet feel ready to call this race. We can also now project that Representative Nick Rahall, of West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district, will win reelection. Some thought he was highly vulnerable this year, but CNN can now project that he will win reelection. The open seat House race in West Virginia's 2nd District is still outstanding, as is the fiercely contested race in West Virginia's 2nd District. Now, let's look at the races in the states that just closed.

Whoops, the two races still outstanding at that point are WV-2 and VA-2, so I just threw an extra "West" in there. Sorry! I'll fix it.

[PolitiJunkie]

8 PM

It is now nearly 8 PM, and polls are about to close in sixteen states. Before that, however, let's take a look at a few of the races that are still outstanding. The Senate races in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and West Virginia remain too close to call; with the exception of maybe North Carolina, most of these will likely not be called for hours. Likewise, the gubernatorial elections in Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio are still outstanding, and look to stay that way. However, we can make some projections regarding the outstanding House races. Right now, CNN can project that Representatives Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs of Ohio's 6th and 7th districts will both win reelection. These two Republican incumbents will return to Washington for two more years. The only Ohio race still outstanding is Ohio's 14th District, where Republican incumbent David Joyce is also leading, but we do not yet feel ready to call this race. We can also now project that Representative Nick Rahall, of West Virginia's 3rd Congressional district, will win reelection. Some thought he was highly vulnerable this year, but CNN can now project that he will win reelection. The open seat House race in West Virginia's 2nd District is still outstanding, as is the fiercely contested race in West Virginia's 2nd District. Now, let's look at the races in the states that just closed.

Whoops, the two races still outstanding at that point are WV-2 and VA-2, so I just threw an extra "West" in there. Sorry! I'll fix it.

Here's a quick update regarding where we are at right now:

Senate races called: VA, SC, SC-Special, Alabama, Delaware, Illinois, Maine
Governor's races called: Alabama, Maine (pickup), Vermont
Senate races still outstanding: Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virginia
Gubernatorial races still outstanding: Georgia, South Carolina, Ohio, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois
House races still outstanding: VA-2, OH-14, WV-2, FL-2, FL-10, FL-13, FL-18, FL-22, IL-10, IL-11, IL-12, IL-13, IL-17

[Flake]

bump

[PolitiJunkie]

Hey everyone- Adam Christopher FitzGerald has started a timeline based on a similar premise that looks to be fleshed out a lot better than this one, so I am going to put this to rest and defer to him.

The timeline can be found here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180214.0

For those wondering about this timeline, the net results were going to be D+1 in the Senate (Rs only picking up SD & Ds picking up GA & KY), D+8 in governorships with Democratic gubernatorial pickups in Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, Georgia (Jason Carter), Arizona, and Florida and Republican pickups in Arkansas, Illinois, and Connecticut, and D+12 in the House (CA-21, CA-31, CO-6, MI-1, NV-3, NY-19, IL-13, NY-11, NY-23, VA-2, MT-AL, WV-2). I hope you all enjoy FitzGerald's timeline!