Slowing Trend in North Carolina

[barfbag]

Even though North Carolina has come a long way to the center we can see the trend slowing down. Will it continue to slowly trend to the left or stay the same? You can send us numbers on demographics all you want, but when it comes to elections the only numbers that matter are real votes. I've laid out the votes already so let's discuss trends and not demographics and races.

Discussion's over, then - unless I'm allowed to conjecture from my ass?

Go ahead and send data, but you would have to make the argument that the trend would speed back up.

Just to clarify: I'm not necessarily arguing that your premise is invalid, but to forego many other types of trends for one type of trend that has plenty of anomalies and exceptions in regards to individual states' long-term political trajectory is not wise. I hope to have some time later this evening to explore this further.

I'm not saying it can't speed back up either, but usually trends don't work that way. We could see another trend in the future, but it doesn't mean there would be any correlation to what's happened in this century so far. I look forward to your numbers and hope I didn't sound mean. Demographics could play a big part in another trend, but then we'd be trying to predict the future without using data we already have.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

You misread what I've written.

The economy has gotten better, but Obama first term started when the economy was collapsing.

Obviously, there were fewer new hirings between the period of late 2008 and late 2012 than between the period of late 2004 and late 2008.

[Devils30]

The trends are usually less during a re-election than with two different candidates. It isn't always a straight line with trends, even California trended R in 1996 but everyone knew the long term movement there. The fact that VA and NC have trended leftward several cycles in a row is alarming for the GOP.
And beware of looking only at the states total trend %, within Georgia and Florida there has been little movement overall but a lot within the states. Look at the Atlanta burbs and the rural areas. Problem for the GOP is there is little room for growth with rural whites and counties like Gwinnett at 43% white currently despite Romney winning by 9 shows much more growth opps for Dems.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

You misread what I've written.

The economy has gotten better, but Obama first term started when the economy was collapsing.

Obviously, there were fewer new hirings between the period of late 2008 and late 2012 than between the period of late 2004 and late 2008.

Ohhh, so the recession affected population growth between 2008 and 2012 so therefore the democrats don't get their influx of northerners. Gotcha.

[Vern]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

He's talking about southern whites.

A lot of the non-native from the North are also white.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

He's talking about southern whites.

A lot of the non-native from the North are also white.

and what kind of population of southern whites are we talking about here? If Obama improved by 5%-9% were those all gains from Northerners? Surely there would have to be more of a gain from northern whites if southern whites voters swung against him because of racism.

[barfbag]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

Actually, the recession ended a while ago.

[Smash255]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

It didn't hurt Obama, it still trended Democratic.  However, the slower growth led in part to the smaller trend,

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

[barfbag]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

Actually, the recession ended a while ago.

You just said the recession is causing fewer job openings though. I agree the recession is over.

[nclib]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

[barfbag]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

So if we keep it up the state will stay center-right?

[nclib]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

So if we keep it up the state will stay center-right?

Though swing voters already here will be more Dem with this legislature. It may cancel each other out.

[barfbag]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

So if we keep it up the state will stay center-right?

Though swing voters already here will be more Dem with this legislature. It may cancel each other out.

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

[illegaloperation]

You just said the recession is causing fewer job openings though. I agree the recession is over.

This is like asking why a store that has been hit by a flood hasn’t sold many products despite the store having being re-opened.

[illegaloperation]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

[barfbag]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

[illegaloperation]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

Neither. Easley was popular until he was hit by a number of scandals.

[illegaloperation]

My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

I doubt they care as long as there are job openings.

[barfbag]

Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

Neither. Easley was popular until he was hit by a number of scandals.

Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

[illegaloperation]

Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

It cut both ways. Perdue's unpopularity dragged Obama down in 2012.