If Richard Lugar ran as an independent/write-in for Senate in 2012...

[PolitiJunkie]

There doesn't seem to be a board to discuss Election What-Ifs for non-presidential races, but a couple interesting Senate what-ifs have crossed my mind lately, so I guess this is the best board to post them.

If Richard Lugar ran as an independent or write-in in 2012 after losing the Republican Primary in Indiana, would he have won? Two notable cases where Senators have won reelection after being ejected in their primaries are Joe Lieberman, as a third-party candidate, in 2006, and Lisa Murkowski, as a write-in candidate, in 2010. My opinion is conflicted.

One side of me thinks that since Indiana is closer to the center than both Connecticut and Alaska, and since Lugar was even more seasoned and respected than Murkowski or Lieberman, that he could have pulled it off.

The other side of me, however, thinks that Joe Donnelly was a more credible opposite-party challenger than either Alan Schlesinger in CT or Scott McAdams in Alaska. In other words, vote-splitting was never a concern in either of those races: Alaska was a contest between the two Republicans, Miller and Murkowski, and Connecticut was a contest between the two Democrats, Lamont and Lieberman. In Indiana, however, Donnelly was perfectly credible, so you'd see a three-way contest between Lugar, Mourdock, and Donnelly, to the extent that vote-splitting between the two Republicans might allow Donnelly to win narrowly.

What are your thoughts?

[NewYorkExpress]

Lugar wins narrowly over Donnelly, Mourdock finishes in a distant third.  Mourdock/Akin's commentary on Women's Issues may give the NRSC an excuse to back Lugar.


Lugar 37% Donnelly 36% Mourdock 25%

[Nichlemn]

Well, Lugar won by at least 2:1 in his previous four elections, so in theory at least, he'd survive even if half his voters went elsewhere. It's complicated by the fact that Donnelly was probably stronger than his previous opponents, but on the other hand, three way races tend to drain everyone's votes.

[PolitiJunkie]

Well, Lugar won by at least 2:1 in his previous four elections, so in theory at least, he'd survive even if half his voters went elsewhere. It's complicated by the fact that Donnelly was probably stronger than his previous opponents, but on the other hand, three way races tend to drain everyone's votes.

Right, it's a tough call. Even though precedent would dictate that Lugar would pull it out like Murkowski and Lieberman (especially since Indiana is MORE moderate than either AK or CT and Lugar is MORE respected/seasoned than either Murkowski or Lieberman), the comparison might not hold because the CT race was Lieberman v. Lamont, the Republican being a non-factor, and AK was Murkowski v. Miller, the Democrat being a non-factor. In Indiana, Donnelly WOULD be a factor, perhaps more so than Mourdock, so vote-splitting may affect Lugar in a way that Murkowski or Lieberman never experienced.

[tmthforu94]

Hmm,

Well, I don't think Lugar would ever do this. But I'll play along as if he had...I think he would have made it an exciting, three-way race. I think he would have been in a close third-place for much of the campaign, but after the Mourdock rape comments, a lot of Republicans begin to flock to Lugar in an effort to safe the seat for the GOP...I'm honestly not sure who would eek out the win, but I think I'd put my money on Lugar.

[Maxwell]

Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.

[PolitiJunkie]

Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.

I think NewYorkExpress's numbers make a lot more sense. There's no way that Lugar and Mourdock are getting a combined 72% of the vote.

[badgate]

There's the obvious possibility that Mourdock would not have made his major gaffe in this scenario. Hopefully Lugar wins, but he would be dependent on a decent amount of Donnelly defectors which could be a problem for his right-side supporters.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.

I think NewYorkExpress's numbers make a lot more sense. There's no way that Lugar and Mourdock are getting a combined 72% of the vote.

Why not? Last time Lugar ran against a Democrat he got 67% - and I imagine a lot of voters who might otherwise back Donnelly strategically picking Lugar over Mourdock.

[PolitiJunkie]

Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.

I think NewYorkExpress's numbers make a lot more sense. There's no way that Lugar and Mourdock are getting a combined 72% of the vote.

Why not? Last time Lugar ran against a Democrat he got 67% - and I imagine a lot of voters who might otherwise back Donnelly strategically picking Lugar over Mourdock.

Yes, but his 2000 opponent, "David Johnson" was a man so random and so obscure that he not only lacks a Wikipedia page, but on the 2000 US Senate Election in Indiana Wikipedia page, he is only listed as "David Johnson," not even "Businessman David Johnson" or whatever other title he could have. Donnelly was a reasonably known/respected blue dog Democrat in the House, and he strategically ran in 2012 because he knew this was the first time the seat would be competitive with Mourdock challenging Lugar in the primary.

[Maxwell]

Lugar wins 44 Lugar-28 Mourdock-27 Donnelly. Mourdock would lead and Lugar would be in second until the rape thing, and then Lugar surges to the lead. Donnelly is anonymous enough to be third the whole time.

I think NewYorkExpress's numbers make a lot more sense. There's no way that Lugar and Mourdock are getting a combined 72% of the vote.

Why not? Last time Lugar ran against a Democrat he got 67% - and I imagine a lot of voters who might otherwise back Donnelly strategically picking Lugar over Mourdock.

But see, Lugar is not running as a Republican in this scenario. Democrats would be willing to cross-over, especially with how anonymous Donnelly is. Bayh might've even backed Lugar. Donnelly would win the Democratic vote by single digits, Lugar dominates among independents, and Mourdock bruises Lugar among Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Mourdock ended up getting 44% of the vote. Considering that their alternative was Joe Donnelly, a fairly centrist and even pro-life Democrat, I highly doubt very many of those 44% would've abandoned Mourdock for Lugar when they didn't abandon him for Donnelly. Because of that, I don't see Mourdock dropping below 40% no matter what. Meaning that the only way Donnelly/Lugar would have a chance would be if one ended up getting less than 20% of the vote, which I don't see as particularly likely. My guess would be something like 40-30-30 with Mourdock winning as Donnelly and Lugar split the sane vote.