SC-Gov: Both Haley (R) and Shaheen (D) are anti-SSM

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As in today's The State.

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Not at all surprising, since Shaheen voted for the ban twice already. (To amend the SC Constitution requires the General Assembly to vote once to sent the amendment to the people for a general election referendum and then the next General Assembly must vote once more to ratify the amendment.) Frankly, if Shaheen were to come out in favor of SSM, he'd blow away what faint hope he has of winning in 2014.

[free my dawg]

No surprise here. After all this is South Carolina.

[PolitiJunkie]

As in today's The State.

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Not at all surprising, since Shaheen voted for the ban twice already. (To amend the SC Constitution requires the General Assembly to vote once to sent the amendment to the people for a general election referendum and then the next General Assembly must vote once more to ratify the amendment.) Frankly, if Shaheen were to come out in favor of SSM, he'd blow away what faint hope he has of winning in 2014.

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

[Sol]

Both of them are horrible evil bigots.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

[PolitiJunkie]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf

I stand corrected .  Still, I wouldn't build as much hope as you are doing from that poll.  It was conducted in the aftermath of Obama's national victory in an election that had very few contested races at any level in South Carolina.  It also has people identifying as Republicans 42-31, so for Sheheen to win he has to get some 60% of the Independents.  Also Haley's approval numbers have gone up considerably since their nadir back in December. She had a good 2013. The Winthrop Poll conduced in the same month as that PPP poll had Haley at 40-42 with registered voters for a net -2 disapproval in December 2012, but their April 2013 poll had Haley with 45-39 +6 net approval among the same group.  (PPP had Haley at 42-49 for a net -7 disapproval in December 2012.)  Even applying just the same level of shift in the Winthrop poll would give Haley a net approval by April in a PPP poll and a lead over Sheheen.  If one wee to attribute the difference in the December polls entirely to random variation (which probably is overstating the case), then the probable Haley lead in April would be even more solid.

So yeah, I'll stand by my opinion.  This is Haley's race to lose, not Sheheen's to win.

[PolitiJunkie]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf

I stand corrected .  Still, I wouldn't build as much hope as you are doing from that poll.  It was conducted in the aftermath of Obama's national victory in an election that had very few contested races at any level in South Carolina.  It also has people identifying as Republicans 42-31, so for Sheheen to win he has to get some 60% of the Independents.  Also Haley's approval numbers have gone up considerably since their nadir back in December. She had a good 2013. The Winthrop Poll conduced in the same month as that PPP poll had Haley at 40-42 with registered voters for a net -2 disapproval in December 2012, but their April 2013 poll had Haley with 45-39 +6 net approval among the same group.  (PPP had Haley at 42-49 for a net -7 disapproval in December 2012.)  Even applying just the same level of shift in the Winthrop poll would give Haley a net approval by April in a PPP poll and a lead over Sheheen.  If one wee to attribute the difference in the December polls entirely to random variation (which probably is overstating the case), then the probable Haley lead in April would be even more solid.

So yeah, I'll stand by my opinion.  This is Haley's race to lose, not Sheheen's to win.

We'll see. I'd still call it a toss-up, but I agree that one poll is far from the end all be all and Haley definitely has some advantages.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf

I stand corrected .  Still, I wouldn't build as much hope as you are doing from that poll.  It was conducted in the aftermath of Obama's national victory in an election that had very few contested races at any level in South Carolina.  It also has people identifying as Republicans 42-31, so for Sheheen to win he has to get some 60% of the Independents.  Also Haley's approval numbers have gone up considerably since their nadir back in December. She had a good 2013. The Winthrop Poll conduced in the same month as that PPP poll had Haley at 40-42 with registered voters for a net -2 disapproval in December 2012, but their April 2013 poll had Haley with 45-39 +6 net approval among the same group.  (PPP had Haley at 42-49 for a net -7 disapproval in December 2012.)  Even applying just the same level of shift in the Winthrop poll would give Haley a net approval by April in a PPP poll and a lead over Sheheen.  If one wee to attribute the difference in the December polls entirely to random variation (which probably is overstating the case), then the probable Haley lead in April would be even more solid.

So yeah, I'll stand by my opinion.  This is Haley's race to lose, not Sheheen's to win.

We'll see. I'd still call it a toss-up, but I agree that one poll is far from the end all be all and Haley definitely has some advantages.

I would take Ernest's word on this, seeing as how he lives in the state....

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I would take Ernest's word on this, seeing as how he lives in the state....

Thanks, tho sometimes one can be too close to the trees to see the forest.  We'll have a clearer idea by June of next year once the General Assembly session has ended.  Once that has happened, Haley (and Sheheen) won't have anything to do until November but campaign, but with the GA out of session, neither will have opportunities to anger the voters. Given how this state tilts Republican, Sheheen needs to at least be even then to have a chance and ahead in the polls to have a good chance. One of Sheheen's difficulties is that even when Haley makes a mistake, it has the potential to endear her to the voters instead.

[PolitiJunkie]

Haley has yet to win a single poll against Sheheen.

As far as I know, no one has released a statewide poll for the 2014 race, but PPP did poll the matchup during the SC-1 special election and found Haley leading there 44-38 over Sheheen.  Granted, SC-1 is a bit more Republican than the Palmetto State as a whole, but unlike some Republican governors elsewhere, she hasn't done anything to generate massive outrage in the political center.  Sure, she's angered Democrats, but that's to be expected of any Republican governing in a solidly Republican state.

The only way Haley loses this election is if Haley loses it.  Sheheen can do nothing by himself to win it.  While there won't be the GOP surge that helped give her the win in 2010, she'll also have had four years to put to rest the fears that she'd be incompetent at the job or be a carbon copy of Sanford.  I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1211.pdf

I stand corrected .  Still, I wouldn't build as much hope as you are doing from that poll.  It was conducted in the aftermath of Obama's national victory in an election that had very few contested races at any level in South Carolina.  It also has people identifying as Republicans 42-31, so for Sheheen to win he has to get some 60% of the Independents.  Also Haley's approval numbers have gone up considerably since their nadir back in December. She had a good 2013. The Winthrop Poll conduced in the same month as that PPP poll had Haley at 40-42 with registered voters for a net -2 disapproval in December 2012, but their April 2013 poll had Haley with 45-39 +6 net approval among the same group.  (PPP had Haley at 42-49 for a net -7 disapproval in December 2012.)  Even applying just the same level of shift in the Winthrop poll would give Haley a net approval by April in a PPP poll and a lead over Sheheen.  If one wee to attribute the difference in the December polls entirely to random variation (which probably is overstating the case), then the probable Haley lead in April would be even more solid.

So yeah, I'll stand by my opinion.  This is Haley's race to lose, not Sheheen's to win.

We'll see. I'd still call it a toss-up, but I agree that one poll is far from the end all be all and Haley definitely has some advantages.

I would take Ernest's word on this, seeing as how he lives in the state....

Would you trust barfbag as the end all be all regarding Virginia politics?!?!

By the way, Ernest, who do you support in the race?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the way, Ernest, who do you support in the race?

I'll probably end up voting for Vince again, but Nikki hasn't been as bad as I had feared she would be.

[nolesfan2011]

No surprise here. After all this is South Carolina.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm staunchly opposed to gay marriage and civil unions.

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm staunchly opposed to gay marriage and civil unions.

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

After the ruling in US v. Windsor, the question is not will the Supreme Court require state recognition of same-sex civil marriages but when.  There's no way a progressive justice gets replaced by a conservative justice before a case reaches SCOTUS.

[Nutmeg]

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

This is not the case in a growing number of countries and states.

[Sol]

I'm staunchly opposed to gay marriage and civil unions.

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

Why?

[free my dawg]

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

The levees have started to crack. I'm not getting into a marriage debate here, but saying it'll stay between a man and a woman is objectively wrong.

[PolitiJunkie]

I'm staunchly opposed to gay marriage and civil unions.

Marriage is and will remain to be between one man and one woman.

Are you sure you're actually a conservative Democrat and not just a conservative Republican?

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm a conservative Democrat.