Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[minionofmidas]

So they name ridings in NS after people too?

They don't (Needham is a park). Their Commission appears to have tried, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pundit's Guide has a NS section now: http://ns.punditsguide.ca/

and guess who she is crediting for the proper transposition numbers?

That's right, me! (well, my blog, look at the bottom)

(But I couldn't have done it without Krago sending me maps)

[Pundits Guide]

I credited Krago on Facebook, and by linking to your post credited him by inference as well. When I write up a post for the main site, I'll be sure to credit everyone appropriately.

Meanwhile: there are some real gaps in the data on the Elections NS site. For example, I can't find the party spending limits for most years, and there is no candidate spending data reported at all for 2006 GE.

I documented the data gaps in a single page here:

punditsguide.ca / files / NS_Prov_Data_Quality_and_Existence_Report.pdf

[They're not letting me include a hyperlink, but you should be able to stitch it back together again.]

If anyone has any of the data, even if it's in PDF form that needs retyping, I will gratefully accept it and manually type it into the database.

Also ... I just slightly changed the Browse Parties page to show the financial data, and I'm about to fix the "special query" about nominations in ridings of first-time incumbents, the methodology for which didn't translate well to elections with new boundaries.

Finally, I'll add in the transposed poll-by-poll maps, if I get a second between covering federal by-election nominations.

Cheers, and keep up the great work.

[DC Al Fine]

So they name ridings in NS after people too?

They don't (Needham is a park). Their Commission appears to have tried, though.

Did a bit of research last night. Chebucto is an Anglicization for what the Mik'maq called their settlement in the riding. Also, Cornwallis was an actual riding for a while. Citadel used to cover the downtown, while Cornwallis covered the South End. In the 1990's Citadel was divided up between Cornwallis, Chebucto, and Needham. They renamed Halifax Cornwallis to Halifax Citadel because of the reasons Krago provided and because it contains the actual Citadel.

[minionofmidas]

Chebucto is also the name of the peninsula Halifax is situated on (not Halifax Peninsula, which is identical to the historical city, but the larger one of which that is a part. Which makes the use as a riding name for part of the old town a bit confusing. Especially since there was a Chebucto Peninsula community council from 1996 to 2012...)

[Hatman 🍁]

The former city of Halifax contains more than just the peninsula, it contained some of the 'mainland' if you will.

[minionofmidas]

The former city of Halifax contains more than just the peninsula, it contained some of the 'mainland' if you will.

Yes, from the 60s. But that's broadly the Fairview and Clayton Park ridings. (Looking at the wiki article, and the "old" constituencies, here.) And the Chebucto Peninsula community council covered areas outside of that, and was in the Halifax Atlantic riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Halifax County*/Town of Bedford


Bedford
This suburban riding is one of the wealthiest in the province, consisting almost entirely of upper middle class professionals, wealthier immigrants and a small "new money" neighbourhood. It has grown rapidly in the past 20 years or so and has lost a some of it's NDP areas in the last redistribution. Bedford was historically Tory, but swung Liberal in '09 in the wake of the PC debacle and the local Tory MLA's spending scandal. This riding is a battle of dynasties, with the Liberals running Kelly Regan, wife of Halifax West MP Geoff Regan and the Tories running Joan Christie, wife of former Bedford MLA Peter Christie. The NDP had a strong 2nd in 2009, but I don't expect them to be competitive this time around.
Safe Liberal

Eastern Shore
This rural riding consists almost entirely of the eastern half of Halifax County. It has several fishing villages and the Village of Lawrencetown, a fantastic surfing spot that attracts a great deal of tourism each year. It was represented by Liberal Keith Colwell before he was redistricted from 1993-1999, and Tory Bill Dooks from 1999-2009 before being picked up by Dipper Sid Prest in 2009. The Tories have targeted this riding and are gaining votes off the NDP's rural troubles.
Lean PC

Halifax Atlantic
Like Halifax Citadel, Halifax Atlantic is a riding of extremes. It contains wealthy oceanfront homes, poor suburban public housing projects and small fishing villages further away from the city. John Buchanan represented this riding in the 70's and 80's. The NDP riding won in a massive landslide last time but the Tories have come close in the past. The Liberals are nearly non-existent here. This riding could be in play if the Tories were weren't in 3rd place, but right now it looks like an NDP hold.
Safe NDP

Hammonds Plains-Lucasville
This riding was formed mostly from the old Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville riding and was represented by Tory Barry Barnet until 2009 when the NDP won it. The incumbent Dipper was redistricted out of the riding. The Hammonds Plains area is a exurban bedroom community consisting of middle class homes on large rural properties. Lucasville is a black loyalist village. The NDP are running former city councillor Peter Lund. Lund was defeated by Tory Matt Whitman in the 2012 municipal election. The Tories are running Gina Byrne who nearly defeated Lund in the 2008 municipal election. The Liberals are running strong this election and should be competitive. This riding is the closest to 3 way split in the province IMO
Liberal-NDP-PC Tossup

Sackville-Beaverbank
This riding is mostly poor and rural with some wealthier exurbs mixed in and was part of the old Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville riding. NDP MLA Mat Whynott was elected for the first time in 2009 and chose to seek re-election in this riding. The Tories have a strong organization here, but Whynott is hugely popular.
Lean NDP

Sackville-Cobequid
Consists almost entirely of the working class suburb of Lower Sackville, this riding has been represented since 1993; before their break through. It has been represented by Health minister Dave Wilson since 2003. Wilson has been unchallenged in his tenure. The Liberals ran a popular city councillor in 2003 who only got 25% of the vote. Don't expect this one to change hands.
Safe NDP

Timberlea-Prospect
This riding consists of two communities; Timberlea, a working class suburb, and Prospect, a poor rural area with a few large oceanfront properties. It has been represented by NDP MLA Bill Estabrooks. Estabrooks is a colourful character and is known for being down to earth. During the MLA spending scandal, it came out that Estabrooks claimed a mere $300 for constituency expenses and bought most of his office furniture on Kijiji!(Canadian version of Craigslist). The riding should be safe NDP but has two wildcards. Estabrooks will not run again, so the NDP will loose his rather large personal vote, and the Tories are running Bruce Pretty who nearly won Halifax West and got a large personal vote in the normally Tory unfriendly Prospect area. I'm still calling it safe NDP, but it could be surprisingly close on election night.
Safe NDP

Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
This rapidly growing area is mostly rural exurbs. It attracts a range of classes including poorer folks in search of cheap land, middle class airport workers, and upper middle class professionals in search of large properties. It is represented by the province's only black MLA, Percy Paris of the NDP. Paris is under fire right now because he assaulted Liberal MLA Keith Colwell after a committee hearing this Spring. The Liberals and Tories are both targeting the riding, but Paris is still popular and has over-achieved in most of his campaigns.
Lean NDP


*The rural western parts of Halifax County is part of Chester-St.Margaret's. I chose to include that riding in the South Shore because culturally it has more in common with the South Shore than Halifax, and it made the # of ridings in each section more even.

[DC Al Fine]

Just spent a few hours knocking on doors. Got a solid response. We won't win but at least we'll have a respectable showing after getting 10% in 2009

[Hatman 🍁]

You've probably mentioned this, but what riding are you in?

[MaxQue]

You've probably mentioned this, but what riding are you in?

He said it when covering his riding in his preview. Fairview-Clayton Park. Strangely, their candidate started an anti-bullying movement.

[lilTommy]

You've probably mentioned this, but what riding are you in?

He said it when covering his riding in his preview. Fairview-Clayton Park. Strangely, their candidate started an anti-bullying movement.

By the Sounds of him, Travis Price, the PCs really scored a solid "red" tory candidate... which makes the riding one to watch definitely. The PCs will not be in the 10% range this time, it's going to be interesting to see where the votes go here

[Hatman 🍁]

You've probably mentioned this, but what riding are you in?

He said it when covering his riding in his preview. Fairview-Clayton Park. Strangely, their candidate started an anti-bullying movement.

Oops. I was reading the wrong section then. When he'd done his profiles, I should compare them to what my spread sheet says.

You've probably mentioned this, but what riding are you in?

He said it when covering his riding in his preview. Fairview-Clayton Park. Strangely, their candidate started an anti-bullying movement.

By the Sounds of him, Travis Price, the PCs really scored a solid "red" tory candidate... which makes the riding one to watch definitely. The PCs will not be in the 10% range this time, it's going to be interesting to see where the votes go here

Hey, Tories can be anti-bully too. After all, it was a sitting conservative city councillor in Ottawa whose sun committed suicide a few years ago after being bullied.

[MaxQue]

Well, as bullying is often caused by the victim not fitting the things the society expects it to be, I'm not sure than social conservatism and anti-bullying is compatible.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, as bullying is often caused by the victim not fitting the things the society expects it to be, I'm not sure than social conservatism and anti-bullying is compatible.

Sure, but have you seen how progressives act towards traditionalists

Anyways, back to the candidate. Yes, Travis seems to be a red Tory with a bit of a law and order vibe, although that's based off a few short conversations I've had with him. It's not like I've interviewed him in depth.

@ LilTommy
We're doing well in Clayton Park (the middle class part) and we're definitely stealing votes from the Liberals. In Fairview (NDP haven) there's a lot of anger at the NDP, but very few people are committing to the Liberals or PC's. I suspect the election will be decided by those pissed off Dippers and whether they decide to hold their nose and vote NDP or to stay home/vote for another party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Social conservatives in this country are probably bullied a lot for their beliefs too, because their views are in the minority. But most minority groups that are bullied find refuge in the left, as the left usually embraces non conformity more.
 

[DC Al Fine]

City of Dartmouth

Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
This riding has a small portion of Cole Harbour (blue collar suburb), but it's mostly focused on Easter Passage, a village just outside of Halifax. Eastern Passage is very blue collar and many poorer workers move there for the cheap housing. The main employer is a heavily unionized oil refinery. Unsurprisingly the NDP do very well here.
Safe NDP

Cole Harbour-Portland Valley
The home of hockey great Sidney Crosby, Premier Darrell Dexter represents this seat. It is blue collar suburbia, but the upper middle class Portland Valley area was moved onto this riding during the redistribution, making it somewhat more Liberal friendly. Dexter has won massive majorities here. His margin should be reduced this time around, but the riding won't be in doubt.
Safe NDP

Dartmouth East
Dartmouth is known as a city of lakes, and most of the lakes are in Dartmouth East. Darmouth East has wealthier residents living on the lakes with the rest of the residents being middle class homeowners. This was the only seat the NDP lost in 2009 as popular councillor Andrew Younger managed to scrape out a victory for the Liberals. If Younger could knock off an incumbent in an NDP year, he should have no trouble this time around.
Safe Liberal

Dartmouth North
One of the most impoverished neighbourhoods in the city, Dartmouth North almost all of Dartmouth's public housing as well as the closest thing Halifax has to a red light district. It also  contains a small blue collar neighbourhood. Former NDP MLA Trevor Zinck won a large majority last time, but was booted out of the NDP in a spending scandal. Zinck has vowed to run again. The strong Liberal vote in 2009 is deceptive since the Liberals ran a city councilor here last time and their current candidate doesn't have the same profile. This one is a total tossup in my mind.
Liberal-NDP Tossup

Dartmouth South
This riding is mostly middle class suburbia. The NDP have held it since 2003, but the Liberals have had strong showings here even during some relatively poor election years. I'd call it an easy pickup for the Liberals, but the most Liberal part of the riding; Portland Valley was moved into a safe NDP seat.
Lean Liberal

Preston-Dartmouth
Preston Dartmouth consists of Preston, a black loyalist village, and some exurban areas outside Dartmouth. Surprisingly, the PC's appear to have won the black vote in 2009, possibly due to having the only black candidate in the race. The NDP actually had some of their worst poll results in the whole Halifax area in Preston. Outside of Preston, the voters are relatively poor and vote Liberal and NDP. The riding should have an NDP lean, but a popular Liberal MLA (former councillor) and prominent black Tory candidates have kept them underperforming. Liberal MLA Keith Colwell is a strong campaigner and has held off several strong challenges for the seat. Expect him to have an easy go this time round.
Safe Liberal

[MaxQue]

Well, as bullying is often caused by the victim not fitting the things the society expects it to be, I'm not sure than social conservatism and anti-bullying is compatible.

^This comment is a perfect example of bullying people in the minority, in this case, conservatives on this site. What a close-minded thing to say. I expected better of you.

Probably than you're right. I can only talk of my experience with the ultra-conservative wing of my family. I can surely imagine bullying towards the right-wing. I'm even quite sure than it happened during the student crisis (I'm pretty sure than things happened on both sides, it was ugly). 

I'm very sorry if I insulted people, but given my life, I have much more issues with the social conservatives than with other people. But, yes, left-wing political bullying exists and it's not good either. My impulsivity hurted me again.

Can we return to the subject, please?

[Hatman 🍁]

My uncle lives in Dartmouth East. I had never spoken politics with him before going down there for the NDP convention in 2009. He voted for Andrew Younger because he liked him as a councillor.

[DC Al Fine]

Just looked at the lists of officially nominated candidates. The Greens only have 2 :S

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looked at the lists of officially nominated candidates. The Greens only have 2 :S

When is the cut off?

[lilTommy]

@ LilTommy
We're doing well in Clayton Park (the middle class part) and we're definitely stealing votes from the Liberals. In Fairview (NDP haven) there's a lot of anger at the NDP, but very few people are committing to the Liberals or PC's. I suspect the election will be decided by those pissed off Dippers and whether they decide to hold their nose and vote NDP or to stay home/vote for another party.

I think this will be the case in many riding's, even those that are strong/safe NDP. I think that's why the NDP has been so aggressive with the announcements, social media campaign (which is making headlines on it's own) and attacks. They are trying to motivate the "base" to get out and vote and keep some voters they won in 2009.
It will come down to who can get their voters out... are people that motivated about changing gov't? or are they motivated to keep this party/stop another party.

[DC Al Fine]

Just looked at the lists of officially nominated candidates. The Greens only have 2 :S

When is the cut off?

A week from today. All the other parties have at least 30 candidates nominated.

[lilTommy]

@ LilTommy
We're doing well in Clayton Park (the middle class part) and we're definitely stealing votes from the Liberals. In Fairview (NDP haven) there's a lot of anger at the NDP, but very few people are committing to the Liberals or PC's. I suspect the election will be decided by those pissed off Dippers and whether they decide to hold their nose and vote NDP or to stay home/vote for another party.

I think this will be the case in many riding's, even those that are strong/safe NDP. I think that's why the NDP has been so aggressive with the announcements, social media campaign (which is making headlines on it's own) and attacks. They are trying to motivate the "base" to get out and vote and keep some voters they won in 2009.
It will come down to who can get their voters out... are people that motivated about changing gov't? or are they motivated to keep this party/stop another party.

Oh forgot to say, i feel it's a good sign that people are not "committing to either the PCs or Liberals". when in doubt many will side with the gov't or not vote. As an outsider, their doesn't seem to be anything that is brewing (ie like here in Ontario the Gas plants scandal) that would bring down the NDP.
I believe (correct me if not) that in MAN, BC & ON the opposition were in the lead at the start/lead up to the election, but in each case the gov't won.

[Hatman 🍁]

And remember, the NDP may not need to win the PV to get the most seats.