Oklahoma in 2008

[Reginald]

Actually Oklahoma did do quite a bit of swinging in 2008. It just so happened that the southeast's heavy swing toward McCain almost perfectly canceled out the population centers' swing toward Obama:



As for the state's dominant culture... TDAS04 is on the right track I think (I seem to recall someone here claiming a while back that the state is Southwestern, which... is really right out). Clearly neither is a 100% match, but if we must define the entire state as one or the other, I'm thinking it's more accurate to go with "Southern" than with "Great Plains." The map below is pretty important here (notice the OK-KS border) and is basically the reason why I am much more comfortable applying "Southern" to the Panhandle than I am with applying "Great Plains" to Broken Bow or Antlers (though SE Oklahoma being "Little Dixie" may play into that just a little).

But electorally speaking, Oklahoma has been largely conservative much longer than it has been largely Republican. Now that the parties are becoming more distinctly ideologically polarized... it's mostly a case of the conservatism of the Great Plains meeting the conservatism of the South, with liberals (it may almost be more apt to say non-conservatives) remaining a minority throughout.

[Reginald]

As of early this year, 45% are registered D, 42% are registered R. Indies way behind for obvious reasons (and, for a fun fact, one single voter registered with the anachronistic-but-not-really Americans Elect). So Democrats still have an advantage when you look at the raw numbers, yeah, but it's becoming increasingly meaningless and Republicans will overtake them soon enough.

It's a pipe dream at this point (muh exit polls, etc.), but I'd love to see how well Romney did among OK registered Democrats.