Oklahoma in 2008
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  Oklahoma in 2008
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ElectionsGuy
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« on: August 12, 2013, 07:29:31 AM »

This question must have been asked before, why did McCain do so good in Oklahoma, or why did Obama do so bad? Equally conservative states in 2004 like Nebraska swung heavily towards Obama, when McCain's 2008 result replicated Bush's 2004 result.

2004 ---> 2008

Utah: 71.5% Bush, 26.0% Kerry   --->  62.6% McCain, 34.4% Obama
Wyoming: 68.9% Bush, 29.1% Kerry ---> 64.4% McCain, 32.4% Obama
Idaho: 68.4% Bush, 30.3% Kerry ---> 61.5% McCain, 36.1% Obama
Nebraska: 65.9% Bush, 32.7% Kerry ---> 56.5% McCain, 41.6% Obama (!)
Oklahoma: 65.6% Bush, 34.4% Kerry ---> 65.6% McCain, 34.4% Obama (!)

Is there something unique with Oklahoma? It didn't really become a very conservative state in many peoples eyes until 2008 when it stuck out like a sour thumb staying with McCain/republicans when the rest of the country swung heavily towards Obama/democrats. This kind of hardcore trend happened with the Ozarks and Appalachia too, so I guess this kind of trend kind of explains Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Missouri. So is this just a reaction to Obama himself or are these states gone for good for the democrats?
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semocrat08
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2013, 07:48:17 AM »

George W. Bush swept every county in Oklahoma in 2004 before John McCain accomplished the same feat in 2008. It's been discussed on here before, but Oklahoma is located in the heart of the Bible Belt with evangelicals who were not very responsive to Obama's socially liberal stances, particularly on abortion and marriage equality. Here's something from a source that may better answer your question:

While Oklahoma is certainly a conservative state, it’s not necessarily the state you would think would be the most opposed to Obama in the U.S.. In fact, in the most recent Gallup state rankings, Oklahoma wasn’t even listed among the 10 most conservative states in the country.

The state also recently had a popular two-term Democratic governor, Brad Henry, and has a popular Democratic congressman, retiring Rep. Dan Boren (the son of a well-liked Democratic former governor and senator).

GOP consultant and Oklahoma native Chris Wilson says it comes down to values.

“Be it health care, the Keystone Pipeline, religious liberty or any other myriad of issues, Obama continues to prove his values are even outside the mainstream of the Democratic Party in Oklahoma,” Wilson said.. “However, if Obama is able to successfully push for a college football playoff, that could all change.”

Read more at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-oklahoma-is-so-anti-obama/2012/03/07/gIQA4z6UxR_blog.html
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2013, 09:01:17 AM »

George W. Bush swept every county in Oklahoma in 2004 before John McCain accomplished the same feat in 2008. It's been discussed on here before, but Oklahoma is located in the heart of the Bible Belt with evangelicals who were not very responsive to Obama's socially liberal stances, particularly on abortion and marriage equality. Here's something from a source that may better answer your question:

While Oklahoma is certainly a conservative state, it’s not necessarily the state you would think would be the most opposed to Obama in the U.S.. In fact, in the most recent Gallup state rankings, Oklahoma wasn’t even listed among the 10 most conservative states in the country.

The state also recently had a popular two-term Democratic governor, Brad Henry, and has a popular Democratic congressman, retiring Rep. Dan Boren (the son of a well-liked Democratic former governor and senator).

GOP consultant and Oklahoma native Chris Wilson says it comes down to values.

“Be it health care, the Keystone Pipeline, religious liberty or any other myriad of issues, Obama continues to prove his values are even outside the mainstream of the Democratic Party in Oklahoma,” Wilson said.. “However, if Obama is able to successfully push for a college football playoff, that could all change.”

Read more at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-oklahoma-is-so-anti-obama/2012/03/07/gIQA4z6UxR_blog.html

OK, so they have to be the right type of democrat. I see.... I guess the bible belt stops above Oklahoma because Kansas doesn't seem to be nearly as anti-Obama, despite it being a very conservative state. This state, Arkansas and many others in the area seem to be similar when it comes to people being heavily anti-Obama. Was he cast as an extremist by them? Do you think this kind of trend will continue into the future with democratic presidents? In my opinion I believe so as the democratic party is moving to the left generally and these folks who were democrats in the 80's and 90's don't really see the democratic party as it was decades ago, it really just depends on the candidate, and the normal democratic candidate just won't do anymore for these folks.
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2013, 09:54:50 AM »

Nebraska is not equally as conservative as Oklahoma even if they were equally Republican. In the Senate, compare Nelson, Hagel, Johanns, or even Fischer with Inhofe, Coburn, and Nickles.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2013, 10:59:05 AM »

For reference, here is the Bible Belt:

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illegaloperation
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2013, 11:02:26 AM »

Democrats actually control all the statewide offices in Oklahoma before 2010; now they control none.

I wonder how hard it would be for a comeback.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2013, 11:02:47 AM »

Oklahoma arguably combines the most conservative elements of Arkansas and Kansas.  Eastern Oklahoma is basically part of Ozarkia, so it would share some of the same trends with Arkansas.  

I consider Oklahoma to be Southern, and it clearly is more culturally and politically Southern than Kansas.  George Wallace received 20% of the vote in Oklahoma in 1968, while only 10% in Kansas and 7% in Nebraska.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2013, 11:05:46 AM »

Yeah Nebraska and the High Plains states (Montana and the Dakotas) can't really be compared to Oklahoma even on a partisan basis. Before this Congress, Nebraska had not had two Republican senators since 1976, and elected Democratic governors regularly.

I agree that Obama's values is the case. He is far too liberal socially for him to have any support in that state. That must be a major factor in Missouri's intense Republican trend as well, as the state was very much a swing state or even Lean D state against Clinton.
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Reginald
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2013, 01:22:32 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2013, 01:36:55 PM by Reginald »

Actually Oklahoma did do quite a bit of swinging in 2008. It just so happened that the southeast's heavy swing toward McCain almost perfectly canceled out the population centers' swing toward Obama:



As for the state's dominant culture... TDAS04 is on the right track I think (I seem to recall someone here claiming a while back that the state is Southwestern, which... is really right out). Clearly neither is a 100% match, but if we must define the entire state as one or the other, I'm thinking it's more accurate to go with "Southern" than with "Great Plains." The map below is pretty important here (notice the OK-KS border) and is basically the reason why I am much more comfortable applying "Southern" to the Panhandle than I am with applying "Great Plains" to Broken Bow or Antlers (though SE Oklahoma being "Little Dixie" may play into that just a little).

But electorally speaking, Oklahoma has been largely conservative much longer than it has been largely Republican. Now that the parties are becoming more distinctly ideologically polarized... it's mostly a case of the conservatism of the Great Plains meeting the conservatism of the South, with liberals (it may almost be more apt to say non-conservatives) remaining a minority throughout.

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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2013, 03:22:38 AM »

I agree with the poster who said he considers Oklahoma to be Southern. This may be the reason why Oklahoma has become so solidly Republican in recent years. True, most people there are still registered Democrats, but that doesn't really mean anything in today's ever-increasingly polarizing political environment. Just because you register with one party doesn't mean you have to always support that party's candidates. I would ultimately argue that Oklahoma is more conservative than it is Republican, but as a previous poster mentioned, now that the parties are becoming so ideologically polarized, it only makes sense for Oklahoma to vote Republican.

I think in addition to values that it has to do with geography and the urban/rural divide. As the Republicans become the one-party dominant majority in the South (the antithesis to New England and the Northeast), Oklahoma will follow that lead. I would argue that the state has much more in common with Arkansas than it does with Kansas. Social conservatism and the Bible issues may be the reason, and it's been argued on here that Kansas isn't as full of religious fundamentalists as Oklahoma (despite the fact that Topeka is the home of the notorious anti-gay Westboro Baptist Church cult and Wichita was where Dr. George Tiller was murdered by an anti-abortion extremist). I would attribute Kansas's large swing to Obama in 2008 to his connections with the state: his mother was born there and the then-Governor Kathleen Sebelius was very popular in the state and came out as an early supporter of his in 2008. Since Obama had no connections to Oklahoma (I believe the then-Governor Brad Henry remained neutral) and that the state is more akin to Arkansas, IMO, it followed Arkansas's voting habits. To further illustrate Oklahoma's conservatism, recall that the withdrawn candidate John Edwards still received ~10 percent of the vote in the Oklahoma Democratic Primary in 2008.

Oklahoma is also different in terms of the urban votes. The counties that contain Oklahoma City and Tulsa are quite Republican, whereas Kansas City, Kansas (Wyandotte County) and Lawrence (Douglas County, home to Kansas University) are reliably Democratic. Going farther north up the Great Plains in 2008, you'll see that Obama was able to win Omaha (Douglas County) and Lincoln (Lancaster County) in Nebraska, Sioux Falls (Minnehaha County) in South Dakota, and even Fargo (Cass County) and Grand Forks in North Dakota. He also carried all the major urban cities/counties in Texas: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, etc. So Oklahoma is unique in that regard. IIRC, Obama's "best" county was Cherokee, which he "only" lost by about 12 points, in Little Dixie. The Census reports that the county is 1/3 Native American, so that may be the reason.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2013, 03:57:11 PM »

Well, Obama is a black, you see. 
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2013, 02:37:32 AM »

Oklahoma is the meetingpoint of a lot of regions that are conservative/Republican for different reasons. It's on the western end of the Bible Belt, giving its citizens socially conservative views. It's where the Ozarks terminate, making it part of that Appalachian/Ozarkian region of largely rural whites who are very suspicious of and hostile to central government. It's one of the Great Plains states, making agriculture and ranching a significant presence (we're talking cattle ranching and wheat, as opposed to dairy farmers who tend to be less conservative for some reason). It also sits on a lot of oil and natural gas reserves.

Evangelical Christianity + Skepticism of Federal Government + Wheat and Cattle + Oil and Gas = What reason do they have to vote for Barack Obama?

I also wouldn't lump OK in with its northern neighbors, Kansas and Nebraska. Their economies are different - KS and NE have more farming, no oil and more financial services. Their cultures are different - KS and NE were settled by Methodists from New England and the Midwest, as opposed to a melange of Baptists and evangelicals from the Upper South and the remnants of whatever Native Americans were left over.
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shua
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2013, 02:44:19 PM »

Oklahoma has more registered Democrats than Republicans, near 50%.   On the other hand it hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential race since 1964 (though it came close in 76).
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barfbag
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2013, 03:12:33 PM »

Oklahoma has more registered Democrats than Republicans, near 50%.   On the other hand it hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential race since 1964 (though it came close in 76).

They aren't the Democrats of Massachusetts or Rhode Island though. Oklahoma's trend has it on its way to being up there with Utah. It's location between the deep south and great plains doesn't give Democrats  much room to move in either. Basically, we're talking about a safe Republican state and there's not much more to talk about.
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Kevin
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2013, 03:57:59 PM »


Ah a simple answer from a simple poster!
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Reginald
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2013, 04:21:40 PM »

As of early this year, 45% are registered D, 42% are registered R. Indies way behind for obvious reasons (and, for a fun fact, one single voter registered with the anachronistic-but-not-really Americans Elect). So Democrats still have an advantage when you look at the raw numbers, yeah, but it's becoming increasingly meaningless and Republicans will overtake them soon enough.

It's a pipe dream at this point (muh exit polls, etc.), but I'd love to see how well Romney did among OK registered Democrats.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2013, 05:02:45 PM »


It's a pipe dream at this point (muh exit polls, etc.), but I'd love to see how well Romney did among OK registered Democrats.

McCain got 33% in 2008, but I'd like to know about 2012 too.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2013, 08:25:07 PM »

Very interesting that despite such huge swings on the county level, the overall vote total was virtually identical.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2013, 05:42:41 PM »


It's a pipe dream at this point (muh exit polls, etc.), but I'd love to see how well Romney did among OK registered Democrats.

McCain got 33% in 2008, but I'd like to know about 2012 too.

McCain also got...

21% of Democrats in Arkansas
24% of Democrats in Louisiana
28% of Democrats in West Virginia
30% of Democrats in Kentucky

Its too bad none of these states were exit polled. "White Democrats" were even more McCain than overall democrats (of course). I would love to see how many Democrats Romney got in West Virginia.
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Badger
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2013, 08:44:22 PM »

Although one poster mentioned it in passing, an overwhelmig part of OK's GOP trend is it's economy's overwhelming reliance on fossiol fuels. Remember, they actually have a functioning oil derrick on the statehouse lawn! I've often suspected it's kept running not so much for the reasons that a business  engages in a business venture, and more for the same reason a dog pees on a tree.

Picture WV's & Easter KY's coal-based reaction against Obama, PLUS a voting popunlation that is more southern-based in culture, more fundamentalist, and even less hiistorically Democratic at the federal level (in the last 30 years at least). Then it somewhat makes sense.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2013, 11:41:21 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2014, 11:20:49 AM by Less-Progressivism, More Realism »

Oklahoma has a mix of Lower Midwestern/Great Plains regional culture (mainly German ancestry ) with Ozark and Mid-Southern regional  culture ( more English/"Scots-Irish" or "American" ancestry in some cases), plus a large Evangelical Protestant population (especially Baptists and Pentecostals), and an economy that is similar to Texas (stereotypically) but less diversified (oil and gas, ranching, etc.), so it is a perfect target for modern Republicans.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2013, 01:52:14 PM »

Interesting note on Oklahoma:



1976 Presidential Election

Note the cultural divide, it says everything you need to know about Oklahoma.  And really, quite a good example of earlier political times.  Note how Tulsa County, home of the second largest city in the state, is a Republican bastion that went 62% Ford in a year he barely won.  And then note how nearby Little Dixie is overwhelmingly Democratic.

Now let's go forward by 36 years:



You can be forgiven for thinking that Tulsa County looks less blue on this map, as every county around it has gotten more Republican.  Many of these counties, mind, were reliable Carter counties.  Tulsa, meanwhile, is only a point or so more GOP in 2012 than it was thirty six years earlier. However, it's Republican areas and it's Democratic areas have changed dramatically, much like other urban areas.

Reagan, and then later Dubya, pretty much united these two different cultural groups off of a political platform that appealed to them both.  You go to Broken Bow you'll hear people mouthing off about "godless" Democrats while in Broken Arrow you'll hear people ranting and raving about the "socialist communist anti-business" state.

OK politics is actually quite fascinating when you break it down.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2013, 05:47:12 PM »

I wonder which county will be the first to vote D for president again?  I could see Cherokee or Muskogee flirting with Hillary Clinton in a 2016 run.  Failing that, it could be quite a while.  Dems should eventually start to carry OKC in national wins as it diversifies, but there's still a long way to go.
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Doimper
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2017, 11:09:32 PM »

I wonder which county will be the first to vote D for president again?  I could see Cherokee or Muskogee flirting with Hillary Clinton in a 2016 run.  Failing that, it could be quite a while.  Dems should eventually start to carry OKC in national wins as it diversifies, but there's still a long way to go.

Ouch.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #24 on: May 20, 2018, 10:22:22 AM »

Something of note is that there were many Counties in 2004 that Kerry only narrowly lost in Oklahoma; one of them voting to the left of the national average (McIntosh). In 2008, the largest Kerry-McCain swing in the entire nation (also larger than any of the Bush-Obama swings in the entire nation too) was in Coal County, Oklahoma which went from a 7% Bush win to a 47% McCain win, and not a single County in the state failed to produce a double digit McCain victory. Even swinging Obamas national popular vote win to Reagan 1984 levels in 2008 still results in McCain sweeping every County in the state, where Kerry could have won a County by getting a tied National popular vote.
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