How much of a swing would the Democrats need to retake the house?

[Lurker]

As has been much discussed here, the Democrats will obviously have a hard time taking the House with the current district boundaries, particularly after the last redistricting.

I wonder whether anyone has looked into how big of a nationwide swing the Democrats would need (from the 2012 House elections) to get 218 seats and a majority in the House? I couldn't find any clear answer to this, but with this being the Atlas forum I'm sure someone has looked into it.

Would be interesting to see your estimates (or any definite numbers).

[Maxwell]

A big one.

[Morning in Atlas]

2006-level.

[Vosem]

A bit less than 7% universal swing from 2012, though in practice probably a little less because the national party can effectively 'target' districts that are possible flips. In other words, a swing we can already say with some confidence they won't get in 2014, and are unlikely to get at any point later this decade -- though it's not an impossibility if things really go south for the GOP.

[Miles]

They won the popular vote 49-48 in 2012 and 52-44 in 2006. Based off that, they'd probably need to be winning about 51-46 overall.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats need to win about 53-47 nationally in House seats to get a majority in the House. The fix is in because Republicans in most state legislatures have gerrymandered districts so that Democrats have a few sure seats and that almost all the marginal seats have electorates leaning R. People must get very disgusted with Republicans for incompetence or misconduct that Democrats can win R+4 seats. 

[Badger]

5-6 points nationally.

[Torie]

You boys factoring in the incumbency factor or something? Because if not, you guys, all of you, are wrong, while as per usual, I'm right.

Using 2012 numbers, the Dems need to get 51.74359% of the Congressional vote, or at least of the vote in the swing districts to be more accurate. FWIW, 51.5% to 52% is the CW as to the GOP tilt of the House seats. The cognoscenti of psephology in this instance at least appear to be right. As to incumbency, the Pub incumbents in swing CD's did tend to do better than Romney (unless their last name ended with Bachmann or something), so the hill might be steeper. In 2012, the Congressional vote was about evenly split as I recall.

[All Along The Watchtower]

They would need to either deport the whites from many of the GOP districts, or import non-whites (and gays, single women, religious Nones, etc.) who-and this is important-actually vote into the GOP districts.

[hopper]

Probably like 2008 numbers not 2006. 2006 was a bigger victory for the Dems than 2008 I think on the congressional level.