GA-PPP: Michelle Nunn (D) makes it a race to watch

[Adam Griffin]

The flood of Obama = Nunn ads and the dropoff in brown turnout make me very pessimistic about this race.

Paging Adam Griffin with his charts on the racial turnout. Whites will almost certainly make a greater percentage of the electorate than in 2012 yes but non-white vote share will probably even be higher than it was in 2008 if you look at the trend.

Hello everyone I am here

(Right-click, open in new window)



EDIT: Also included if anyone wants to do some plug-and-play:

I observed some silly talk a bit ago in this thread about how someone like Hillary couldn't win Georgia. So here's a spreadsheet (well, an image of a spreadsheet) that will let you compare scenarios for 2016 (1% given to third-parties; Nunn-specific edit: Libertarian would overperform in this race, so it would be to the detriment of the Republican)!

Had to liven up the original electorate chart and give it a few new elements. The most recent Census numbers leave me a tad concerned - perhaps black transplantation has finally stopped. On one hand - based on the averages from the past twenty years - the trend suggests that there will not be a huge increase in the white share of the electorate in 2014; a small increase is likely. On the other hand, the past three mid-terms in Georgia show that mid-term white surges have increased each time - 0.6 points (2002 compared to 2000), 1.5 points (2006 compared to 2004) and 2.2 points (2010 compared to 2008).

I really tend to think that 2010 was a fluke, though - the biggest surge from whites we could ever expect to see again, in other words. The unprecedented amount of white anger combined with the massive shifts we saw in 2008 meant there'd be a correction of sorts. Inversely, black turnout in 2010 did not plummet like many had thought it would without Obama being on the ballot; it appears to be holding relatively steady.

If the second paragraph proves to be true, then 2014 may very well be the last time we see an increase in white turnout between a presidential election and a subsequent mid-term election. Going forward, it is possible that the shifts will be large enough overall to ensure at least slight decreases in the white share of the electorate every two years.

[Adam Griffin]

The flood of Obama = Nunn ads and the dropoff in brown turnout make me very pessimistic about this race.

Paging Adam Griffin with his charts on the racial turnout. Whites will almost certainly make a greater percentage of the electorate than in 2012 yes but non-white vote share will probably even be higher than it was in 2008 if you look at the trend.

Hello everyone I am here

(Right-click, open in new window)

Those Georgia stat posts are always a great read. One thing I wonder about going forward is if whites shift a bit in their voting patterns, say Georgia whites being less Republican in 2016 compared to 2004 due to part of the older generation being replaced with the younger generation of whites. A 2012 exit poll for Georgia sure would have been nice...

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was certainly a bit of a rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bullish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain.

[Adam Griffin]

Those Georgia stat posts are always a great read. One thing I wonder about going forward is if whites shift a bit in their voting patterns, say Georgia whites being less Republican in 2016 compared to 2004 due to part of the older generation being replaced with the younger generation of whites. A 2012 exit poll for Georgia sure would have been nice...

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling and election results, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was perhaps a small rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bearish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain. Kerry got 23% of the white vote, as did Obama in 2008. In 2012, it appears to have been 20%. This is all riding on the subtle shifts in the electorate.