Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there?

[sg0508]

It's been a fools gold state now for better than a decade.  Partially due to Nader's strong showing in 2000, Bush carried almost every county in MN and lost by just 2.5 points.  Then four years later, he was competitive again, but lost.  The Republicans always seemed a bit stronger statewide than nationally and they've elected several GOP governors and Senators over democrats.  Recently however, the democrats have gotten stronger.  Dayton has improved during his first term and looks to be on his way to a second term.  Klobuchar looks like she may have a job for life and it's looking likely that Al Franken (of all people) will win a second term.  So, the Republicans lost the statehouse to the democrats and now, both Senate seats.  I'm not sure who controls the state legislature, but I believe the democrats have gained strength.  Oh yes, Barack Obama re-strengthened the democratic margin at the presidential level over the last two election rounds.

MN seems like it's a very "white" state, which one would think helps the Republicans, but it hasn't worked out.  Any opinions?

[barfbag]

It just hasn't worked out. It would've been red in the 80's if not for Mondale and the farming crisis so there's three flukes right there. Bush came within a point or two each time. Minnesota is a purplish blue state that leans Democratic and probably will in upcoming elections.

[Orser67]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

Dems have both houses by moderate margins.

My understanding is that Minnesota is a lot like the other Midwestern states. Lots of working class whites who suffered through an industrial decline, are still receptive to government intervention in the economy, and who see Republicans like Romney as more concerned with the upper class. The idea behind Tim Pawlenty the presidential candidate was that he would run as a "Wal-Mart Republican" who could win whites in the working class.

[bedstuy]

Minnesota has a Scandinavian heritage.  That culture made the state more communitarian, egalitarian and less individualistic than most of the US.  It's the same reason why Scandinavian nations tend to be left of center politically.  That culture also fostered a strong trade union movement which is a culture in itself.  You see that in the Iron Range which is a DFL stronghold despite being mostly white and non-urban.  On top of that, the Twin Cities has an urban population of educated whites and minorities that go strongly DFL.   

However, as time has gone on, the economy of the Twin Cities attracted a fair number of new residents from outside Minnesota.  The GOP capitalized on this growth, especially in the suburbs and exurbs of the Twin Cities.  At the same time though, some of this GOP success has been over-estimated.  DFL candidates lost a few statewide races because of the Independence party splitting the vote and mediocre DFL candidates like Mike Hatch and Roger Moe. 

In the future, I expect Minnesota to stay in the Democratic column in Presidential elections.  I think the Scandinavian culture will start to erode somewhat as the state becomes more homogeneous.  But, any DFL loss will be offset by increasing diversity in the Twin Cities.

[Non Swing Voter]

Being a "white" state doesn't automatically make it a Republican state.  Vermont (and most of New England) is pretty white too...

Outside of the South, the GOP doesn't rack up huge margins among white voters.

Minnesota is also fairly urban/suburban.

[Sol]

Being a "white" state doesn't automatically make it a Republican state.  Vermont (and most of New England) is pretty white too...

Outside of the South, the GOP doesn't rack up huge margins among white voters.

Minnesota is also fairly urban/suburban.

Although it should be noted that many, although not all, of MN's suburban areas are the bedrock of the state GOP.

[barfbag]

I think faming unions have a lot to do with Democratic success there. It's a big farming state. Bordering Canada doesn't help Republicans either.

[Indy Texas]

Why did the GOP have such a long winning streak with US Senate seats in MN in the '80s and '90s even while not really seeming to do that well in other races? They even managed to get Rod Grams elected for one term.

[barfbag]

Why did the GOP have such a long winning streak with US Senate seats in MN in the '80s and '90s even while not really seeming to do that well in other races? They even managed to get Rod Grams elected for one term.

Democratic turnout is never good for midterm elections anymore. Minnesota would've been light red in the 80's if not for Mondale and the farming crisis. As for the 90's, midterm turnout hasn't been good for Democrats in postmodern history.

[illegaloperation]

There's some misconception that very white states have to vote Republican. Hint: they don't have to.  Maine is 96% white, yet Obama easily won it.

Same in Minnesota. Democratic support among white voters haven't collapsed.

In 2012, there was a huge drop of support from white voters for Obama, but this drop wasn't evenly distributed around the country: instead, this drop was of most significance in the South.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's some misconception that very white states have to vote Republican. Hint: they don't have to.  Maine is 96% white, yet Obama easily won it.

Same in Minnesota. Democratic support among white voters haven't collapsed.

In 2012, there was a huge drop of support from white voters for Obama, but this drop wasn't evenly distributed around the country: instead, this drop was of most significance in the South.

Actually, it was more the upper south. The deep south didn't improve that much among white voters when compared to huge loses in the Rock West (UT, ID, WY, MT, CO, AZ, NM, NV), Great Plains (ND, SD, KS, NE) Upper South (MO, TN, KY, AR, WV), and some of the Midwest (IN, IL, MI, WI). Mississippi for example went 88% McCain to 89% Romney, and Alabama actually lost some going from 88% McCain to 84% Romney. Minnesota didn't have a huge drop, so the 2012 result was pretty similar to the 2008 result. New England didn't get affected that much by the drop off either besides maybe Delaware and Connecticut. But yes, white voters across the country not including the south can go from Solid R (UT, WY, AZ) to Toss-Up (MN, NY, IA) to Solid D (VT, ME, MA)

[ElectionsGuy]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney
Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney
California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney
Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney
Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama
Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney
Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney
Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney
Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama
Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney
Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama
Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney
Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama
Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney
Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney
Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney
Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney
Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney
Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney
New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama
New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney
New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney
New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney
North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney
Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney
Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama
Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney
Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama
Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney
Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama
Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney.

[eric82oslo]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Thanks. I rearranged it from most to least drop off.


1. Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney - R+8
2. Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney - R+7 (strange thing they preferred Romney to their ow son!)
3. Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney - R+7
4. California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney - R+6-7
5. Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney - R+6-7?
6. Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney - R+6
7. Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney - R+6
8. New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney - R+6
9. Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney - R+6
10. Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney - R+5-6?
11. Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney - R+5
12. Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney - R+5
13. Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney - R+5
14. Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney - R+5
15. Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney - -R+4-5?
16. North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney - R+4
17. Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney - R+3-4?
18. Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney - R+3
19. Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama - R+3
20. New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama - R+3
21. New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney - R+3
22. Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama - R+2
23. Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama - R+2
24. Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama - R+2
25. Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney - R+1
26. Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney - R+1
27. Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama - R+1
28. New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney - No change
29. Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
29. Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
31. Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney - D+4


So is Alabama becoming more like Missouri? What could explain these huge differences among the states, being a difference of R+12 among Missouri and Alabama (R+24 when you count the margin instead). Sampling error? Or could it be as simple as very religious Alabamans not trusting a Marmon, while religious Missourians apparently did trust him?

[ElectionsGuy]

In case people are interested...Change in White Vote for all 2012 exit poll states...

Thanks. I rearranged it from most to least drop off.


1. Missouri - 57% McCain, 65% Romney - R+8
2. Arizona - 59% McCain, 66% Romney - R+7 (strange thing they preferred Romney to their ow son!)
3. Montana - 52% McCain, 59% Romney - R+7
4. California - 52% Obama, 53% Romney - R+6-7
5. Wisconsin - 54% Obama, 51% Romney - R+6-7?
6. Indiana - 54% McCain, 60% Romney - R+6
7. Pennsylvania - 51% McCain, 57% Romney - R+6
8. New Jersey - 50% McCain, 56% Romney - R+6
9. Maryland - 49% McCain, 55% Romney - R+6
10. Colorado - 50% Obama, 54% Romney - R+5-6?
11. Kansas - 59% McCain, 64% Romney - R+5
12. Florida - 56% McCain, 61% Romney - R+5
13. Ohio - 52% McCain, 57% Romney - R+5
14. Michigan - 50% McCain, 55% Romney - R+5
15. Illinois - 51% Obama, 52% Romney - -R+4-5?
16. North Carolina - 64% McCain, 68% Romney - R+4
17. Minnesota - 53% Obama, 49% Romney - R+3-4?
18. Nevada - 53% McCain, 56% Romney - R+3
19. Oregon - 57% Obama, 54% Obama - R+3
20. New Hampshire - 54% Obama, 51% Obama - R+3
21. New York - 52% Obama, 49% Obama/Romney - R+3
22. Washington - 55% Obama, 53% Obama - R+2
23. Massachusetts - 59% Obama, 57% Obama - R+2
24. Vermont - 68% Obama, 66% Obama - R+2
25. Mississippi - 88% McCain, 89% Romney - R+1
26. Virginia - 60% McCain, 61% Romney - R+1
27. Maine - 58% Obama, 57% Obama - R+1
28. New Mexico - 56% McCain, 56% Romney - No change
29. Connecticut - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
29. Iowa - 51% Obama, 51% Obama - No change
31. Alabama - 88% McCain, 84% Romney - D+4


So is Alabama becoming more like Missouri? What could explain these huge differences among the states, being a difference of R+12 among Missouri and Alabama (R+24 when you count the margin instead). Sampling error? Or could it be as simple as very religious Alabamans not trusting a Marmon, while religious Missourians apparently did trust him?

Alabama only got slightly more republican, white vote increased while black vote decreased, I think that's one of the only states in the country that did that in 2012. Missouri whites, just like AR, OK, TN, KY are becoming more republican, I think a lot of republican leaning whites trusted Obama the first time (just like Indiana). He did campaign there I believe so he got trust within his speeches, and might have lost trust because of ridiculous promises he made (I don't mean to make this partisan, but it's true). I have no idea why AL whites dropped off, and have no idea whether it was about Romney being a Mormon, or if there was just no where else to go but down.

What I'm most surprised about was New Mexico, white vote was exactly the same. According to the exit polls Hispanics got more republican, although there was a very clear republican trend so I would think white voters would at least get 1-2% more republican.

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

[eric82oslo]

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

Would be nice.

[ElectionsGuy]

Would you like me to do a list based on margins for states and not just the % won?

Model: Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney

Would be nice.

Alright:

Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney
Arizona: 59%-40% McCain, 66%-32% Romney
California: 52%-46% Obama, 53%-45% Romney
Colorado: 50%-48% Obama, 54%-44% Romney
Connecticut: 51%-46% Obama, 51%-48% Obama
Florida: 56%-42% McCain, 61%-37% Romney
Illinois: 51%-48% Obama, 52%-46% Romney
Indiana: 54%-45% McCain, 60%-38% Romney
Iowa: 51%-47% Obama, 51%-47% Obama
Kansas: 59%-40% McCain, 64%-33% Romney
Maine: 58%-40% Obama, 57%-40% Obama
Maryland: 49%-47% McCain, 55%-43% Romney
Massachusetts: 59%-39% Obama, 57%-42% Obama
Michigan: 51%-47% Obama, 55%-44% Romney*
Minnesota: 53%-46% Obama, 49%-48% Romney
Mississippi: 88%-11% McCain, 89%-10% Romney
Missouri: 57%-42% McCain, 65%-32% Romney
Montana: 52%-45% McCain, 59%-38% Romney
Nevada: 53%-45% McCain, 56%-43% Romney
New Hampshire: 54%-44% Obama, 51%-47% Obama
New Jersey: 50%-49% McCain, 56%-43% Romney
New Mexico: 56%-42% McCain, 56%-41% Romney
New York: 52%-46% Obama, 49%-49% Obama/Romney
North Carolina: 64%-35% McCain, 68%-31% Romney
Ohio: 52%-46% McCain, 57%-41% Romney
Oregon: 57%-40% Obama, 54%-44% Obama
Pennsylvania: 51%-48% McCain, 57%-42% Romney
Vermont: 68%-31% Obama, 66%-33% Obama
Virginia: 60%-39% McCain, 61%-37% Romney
Washington: 55%-42% Obama, 53%-46% Obama
Wisconsin: 54%-45% Obama, 51%-48% Romney

* = I accidentally reported wrong in Michigan. I reported white men who went 50%-48% McCain. Whites went 51%-47% Obama. Let me know if you catch any others.

Nope that's the only one I got wrong, so your increase might be R+6/7?

[eric82oslo]

Alright:

This gives us:

1. Missouri: 57%-42% McCain, 65%-32% Romney = R+18%
2. Arizona: 59%-40% McCain, 66%-32% Romney = R+15%
3. Michigan: 51%-47% Obama, 55%-44% Romney = R+15%
4. Montana: 52%-45% McCain, 59%-38% Romney = R+14%
5. California: 52%-46% Obama, 53%-45% Romney = R+14%
6. Indiana: 54%-45% McCain, 60%-38% Romney = R+13%
7. Kansas: 59%-40% McCain, 64%-33% Romney = R+12%
8. Pennsylvania: 51%-48% McCain, 57%-42% Romney = R+12%
9. New Jersey: 50%-49% McCain, 56%-43% Romney = R+12%
10. Wisconsin: 54%-45% Obama, 51%-48% Romney = R+12%
11. Florida: 56%-42% McCain, 61%-37% Romney = R+10%
12. Ohio: 52%-46% McCain, 57%-41% Romney = R+10%
13. Maryland: 49%-47% McCain, 55%-43% Romney = R+10%
14. Colorado: 50%-48% Obama, 54%-44% Romney = R+10%
15. North Carolina: 64%-35% McCain, 68%-31% Romney = R+8%
16. Minnesota: 53%-46% Obama, 49%-48% Romney = R+8%
17. Oregon: 57%-40% Obama, 54%-44% Obama = R+7%
18. Illinois: 51%-48% Obama, 52%-46% Romney = R+6%
19. New York: 52%-46% Obama, 49%-49% Obama/Romney = R+6%
20. New Hampshire: 54%-44% Obama, 51%-47% Obama = R+6%
21. Washington: 55%-42% Obama, 53%-46% Obama = R+6%
22. Nevada: 53%-45% McCain, 56%-43% Romney = R+5%
23. Massachusetts: 59%-39% Obama, 57%-42% Obama = R+5%
24. Vermont: 68%-31% Obama, 66%-33% Obama = R+4%
25. Virginia: 60%-39% McCain, 61%-37% Romney = R+3%
26. Mississippi: 88%-11% McCain, 89%-10% Romney = R+2%
27. Connecticut: 51%-46% Obama, 51%-48% Obama = R+2%
28. New Mexico: 56%-42% McCain, 56%-41% Romney = R+1%
29. Maine: 58%-40% Obama, 57%-40% Obama = R+1%
30. Iowa: 51%-47% Obama, 51%-47% Obama = No change
31. Alabama: 88%-10% McCain, 84%-15% Romney = D+9%

So the real change in the white vote between Missouri and Alabama was actually even larger, at 27%. Alabama had been R+78% vs Missouri being R+15%. In 2012 it was Alabama R+69% vs Missouri R+33%. It's a remarkable shift for two states which just 4 years ago voted so differently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Coleman and Pawlenty were exceptions. GOP who wanted no parts of ANWR. It was close because of rural/urban divide like OR and Iowa. DFL are now the office holders in Democratic Minneaota.

[barfbag]

Coleman and Pawlenty were exceptions. GOP who wanted no parts of ANWR. It was close because of rural/urban divide like OR and Iowa. DFL are now the office holders in Democratic Minneaota.

They're both very moderate Republicans too.

[hopper]

Coleman and Pawlenty were exceptions. GOP who wanted no parts of ANWR. It was close because of rural/urban divide like OR and Iowa. DFL are now the office holders in Democratic Minneaota.

They're both very moderate Republicans too.

Pawlenty is a Reagan Conservative. Coleman he was a Centrist Republican in the US Senate.

[Phony Moderate]

What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

[bedstuy]

What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

Arizona.  Same independent streak, similar size, has cultural attitude that leans R (rugged individualist as opposed to Minnesota communitarian).

[barfbag]

What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

Missouri

[ElectionsGuy]

What do you all think is the Democrats' equivalent of Minnesota? I suppose the strongest contender is North Dakota, although a case could have been made for Virginia pre-2008.

Minnesota is a leaning D state in which the GOP can't seem to do anything.

So by opposite you mean, a leaning R state in which the Dems can't seem to do anything?

I would say maybe North Carolina, but the Dems are making indentations there in presidential races. Arizona or Missouri seems like a good answer here.

By the 2012 election, its polar opposite, meaning the state the leans just as republican as Minnesota does democrat, is Florida... Yes, that's right. Wisconsin is a perfect match for opposite of Florida, but Florida is the closest republican state to Minnesota.

Minnesota: D+3.8%
Florida: R+3.0%

The Florida democratic party is having troubles at the state level, but Obama did win the state twice (granted by very small margins) so I wouldn't exactly call it an opposite of Minnesota when it comes to general political success of the republican party in Florida as compared to the general political success of the democratic party in Minnesota. 

[barfbag]

Another comparison on the other side could be Montana, but I don't know. When Republicans win the general election, they usually win Montana by at least 16.