Electoral College changes 1960-2020 (a net positive for GOP as of 2012)

[eric82oslo]

I've made a map to illustrate the net changes of Electoral College votes between the 1960 election and up until the 2012-2020 elections. It looks like this:

8 states haven't seen any changes in Electoral College votes at all. These are marked as grey on the map. Washington D.C.'s citizens first got enfranchised in 1964, thus they've received 3 EC votes since 1960. For the remaining 42 states, the color saturation applies like this:

90% saturation (California): +23 EVs
80% saturation (Florida): +19 EVs
70% saturation (New York, Texas & Pennsylvania): +14 EVs, -16 or -12 EVs
60% saturation: +7 or -7 EVs
50% saturation: +4, -5 (Massachusetts) or -4 EVs
40% saturation: +3 or -3 EVs
30% saturation: +2 or -2 EVs
20% saturation: +1 or -1 EV

Those states gaining seats, are shown in their partisan color. However, the states having experienced a reduced number of seats are shown instead in the adversary party's color (using the 2012 presidential election partisanship relative to the Popular Vote, and giving Virginia the Democratic color under the benefit of the doubt, also due to its long term trend).

From a straight forward reading, this map would give Republican state gains from states worth 271 EVs, while Democrats would get state gains from states equaling 232 EVs. The remaining 8 no change states are worth 35 EVs.

However, a more precise calculation would mean that we calculate the gains or losses of each individual state instead. Since 1960, these are the Electoral College changes each state has experienced:

1. California: +23 EVs
2. Florida: +19 EVs
3. Texas: +14 EVs
4. Arizona: +7 EVs
5. Georgia: +4 EVs
6. Nevada, Colorado, Washington, [Washington D.C.]: +3 EVs
10. Utah: +2 EVs
11. Oregon, Hawaii, Maryland, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina: +1 EV

18. Idaho, New Hampshire, Alaska, Delaware, Tennessee, Vermont, Wyoming, Rhode Island: No change

26. Oklahoma, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Connecticut, Maine: -1 EV
34. Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas, New Jersey, Wisconsin: -2 EVs
43. Missouri, West Virginia: -3 EVs
45. Michigan, Iowa: -4 EVs
47. Massachusetts: -5 EVs
48. Illinois, Ohio: -7 EVs
50. Pennsylvania: -12 EVs
51. New York: -16 EVs

In total, 175 EVs have changed between states from 1960 to 2012. Of these, 84 EVs have been dropped or added to the 5 states with the biggest gains or losses (California, Florida, New York, Texas & Pennsylvania. That is almost 50% of all changes. If we add the next 3 states as well (Arizona, Ohio & Illinois), the number increases to 105 EVs, gained or lost for 8 states only.

These changes means that the Democratic party between 1960 and 2012 has won an additional 40 EVs (including 1 for Virginia & 3 for D.C., and more than half of them belonging to California alone), while at the same time losing 55 EVs, for a net loss of 15 EVs.

At the same time, the Republican party has gained an additional 48 EVs, while at the same time losing only 32 EVs in a multiple of other states, for a net gain of 16 EVs (the numbers don't add up due to the Electoral College in 1964 being increased from 537 to 538 with the implementation of D.C.).

All in all, the long term Electoral College changes of the past 50 years, has meant that Republicans have been able to pick up another 31 EVs altogher (since GOP has gained 16 and Democrats have lost 15). However, if Florida should flip and start voting Democratic instead in 2016 (or 2020), Democrats would actually come favourably out of these long term Electoral College trends instead, since this would flip another 19 EVs (or 38 when you double them up) into the Democratic column. That is how fragile the GOP "lead" is right now.

Once again the electoral importance of Florida is shown in all its beauty. And Florida's peculiar disenfranchisement of voters in all its horror.

Thoughts?

[ElectionsGuy]

This is good stuff here, republican have benefited from losses in big states like Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, and more Northeast states, while making gains in Texas, Arizona, Utah, and the Atlantic Southeast. While Democrats have benefited from losses in deep south + great plains from republicans and gains in California, Washington, and parts of the west. Overall this has a republican tilt but it could have a democratic tilt if they do good enough like they have recently, and Texas is perhaps the most important thing for the republican party, it will be the most important state in a decade or two.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is Florida being counted as a Republican state?

Even if we assume the GOP has net benefited from the shift in electoral votes, Democrats seem to be the real winners here because the population growth in a number of states has flipped them from GOP to Democrat:

Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, etc...

Whereas a lot of Democratic states that gained population have just stayed in the Democratic column:

California, Washington, Oregon, Maryland, etc...

I actually can't think of any Democratic states that are currently gaining electoral strength that are trending Republican.  But I can think of a number of GOP states that are currently gaining electoral strength that are trending Democratic.

It seems like most of the growth is urban and in GOP states, so the big questions are:

1) Will the growth be just enough to tip any other GOP states Democratic, or will it inflate GOP electoral strength because the tipping point is not reached?

2) Will population loss in some Democratic states help them turn Republican?

[barfbag]

If you look at the latter half of the 20th century, it's interesting to find that the classic battleground states of this era pretty much stay the same with a few exceptions. Throughout the mid-late 20th century, Florida remained and still does remain a center-right state. Ohio has pretty much voted for the winners. Pennsylvania and Michigan pretty much were center-left states. Nevada was center right to light red and by 2000 was a center to center-right state. The same could be said for New Mexico. Oregon has been a battleground more often than not but moved to the left throughout these decades. New Hampshire went from light red to toss up. Missouri is another example of a state that pretty much stayed the same at the presidential level. I know Minnesota has had a streak of voting Democrat but they're along the same lines as Pennsylvania and Michigan when numbers are averaged. We shouldn't forget Iowa or Wisconsin either they moved a little slower than Oregon towards the left. Battleground states that are no longer on the short list would include New Jersey, Illinois, California, Delaware, Washington, and Maine. During this era we also saw much of the south move from Democrat to Republican especially between 1976 and 1980 while the northeast continued to get a little bluer.

[eric82oslo]

If you look at the latter half of the 20th century, it's interesting to find that the classic battleground states of this era pretty much stay the same with a few exceptions. Throughout the mid-late 20th century, Florida remained and still does remain a center-right state. Ohio has pretty much voted for the winners. Pennsylvania and Michigan pretty much were center-left states. Nevada was center right to light red and by 2000 was a center to center-right state. The same could be said for New Mexico. Oregon has been a battleground more often than not but moved to the left throughout these decades. New Hampshire went from light red to toss up. Missouri is another example of a state that pretty much stayed the same at the presidential level. I know Minnesota has had a streak of voting Democrat but they're along the same lines as Pennsylvania and Michigan when numbers are averaged. We shouldn't forget Iowa or Wisconsin either they moved a little slower than Oregon towards the left. Battleground states that are no longer on the short list would include New Jersey, Illinois, California, Delaware, Washington, and Maine. During this era we also saw much of the south move from Democrat to Republican especially between 1976 and 1980 while the northeast continued to get a little bluer.

States that have been a battleground (within 5% of popular vote) the most times in the 11 elections starting with the 1972 Nixon landslide:

1. Ohio: 11 times (in every election)
2. Pennsylvania: 9 times (between 1972 & 2012)
3. Missouri: 9 times (between 1972 & 2004)
4. Iowa: 8 times (between 1976 & 2012)
5. New Mexico: 8 times (between 1972 & 2004)
6. Wisconsin: 7 times (between 1976 & 2012)
7. New Hampshire: 6 times (between 1992 & 2012)
8. Florida: 6 times (between 1976 & 2012)
9. Colorado: 6 times (between 1972 & 2012)
10. Michigan: 6 times (between 1980 & 2000)
11. Maine: 6 times (between 1972 & 2000)
12. Louisiana: 6 times (between 1976 & 1996)
13. Nevada: 5 times (between 1972 & 2012)
14. Oregon: 5 times (between 1976 & 2000)
15. Connecticut: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
15. Delaware: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
15. New Jersey: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
18. Virginia: 4 times (between 1976 & 2012)
19. California: 4 times (between 1976 & 1996)
20. Montana: 4 times (between 1972 & 1992)
21. Vermont: 4 times (between 1972 & 1988)
22. Minnesota: 3 times (between 2000 & 2012)
23. Tennessee: 3 times (between 1984 & 2000)
24. Washington: 3 times (between 1972 & 1996)
25. Kentucky: 3 times (between 1984 & 1992)
26. Texas: 3 times (between 1976 & 1988)
27. Maryland: 3 times (between 1972 & 1988)
28. Illinois: 3 times (between 1972 & 1980)
29. Georgia: Twice (1984 & 1992)
30. South Dakota: Twice (1976 & 1988)
31. West Virginia: Twice (1972 & 1988)
32. Hawaii: Twice (1972 & 1976)
33. Alabama: Once (1984)
33. Arkansas: Once (1984)
35. Mississippi: Once (1976)
35. New York: Once (1976)
35. Oklahoma: Once (1976)
38. Alaska: Once (1972)
38. North Dakota: Once (1972)

40. Kansas: Never (closest 1988, R+5.5%)
41. Indiana: Never (closest 1984, R+5.8%)
41. North Carolina: Never (closest 1984, R+5.8%)
43. Arizona: Never (closest 1996, R+6.3%)
44. South Carolina: Never (closest 1980, D+8.2%)
45. Rhode Island: Never (closest 1976, D+9.2%)
46. Massachusetts: Never (closest 1980, D+9.6%)
47. Wyoming: Never (closest 1992, R+11.2%)
48. Nebraska: Never (closest 1988, R+13.2%)
49. Idaho: Never (closest 1972, R+15%)
50. Utah: Never (closest 1972, R+18.1%)
51. Washington D.C.: Never (closest 1976, D+63.1%)

So no less than 39 states have been a true battleground state at least once since 1972. And a couple of the non-battleground states - North & South Carolina - have been both solidly Democratic and solidly Republican in different elections, but never a true toss-up.

Two "eternal battlegrounds", Missouri and New Mexico, fell out of favor after 2004. However, we've been able to add two fairly new battlegrounds in order to replace them; Minnesota and Virginia.

[barfbag]

If you look at the latter half of the 20th century, it's interesting to find that the classic battleground states of this era pretty much stay the same with a few exceptions. Throughout the mid-late 20th century, Florida remained and still does remain a center-right state. Ohio has pretty much voted for the winners. Pennsylvania and Michigan pretty much were center-left states. Nevada was center right to light red and by 2000 was a center to center-right state. The same could be said for New Mexico. Oregon has been a battleground more often than not but moved to the left throughout these decades. New Hampshire went from light red to toss up. Missouri is another example of a state that pretty much stayed the same at the presidential level. I know Minnesota has had a streak of voting Democrat but they're along the same lines as Pennsylvania and Michigan when numbers are averaged. We shouldn't forget Iowa or Wisconsin either they moved a little slower than Oregon towards the left. Battleground states that are no longer on the short list would include New Jersey, Illinois, California, Delaware, Washington, and Maine. During this era we also saw much of the south move from Democrat to Republican especially between 1976 and 1980 while the northeast continued to get a little bluer.

States that have been a battleground (within 5% of popular vote) the most times in the 11 elections starting with the 1972 Nixon landslide:

1. Ohio: 11 times (in every election)
2. Pennsylvania: 9 times (between 1972 & 2012)
3. Missouri: 9 times (between 1972 & 2004)
4. Iowa: 8 times (between 1976 & 2012)
5. New Mexico: 8 times (between 1972 & 2004)
6. Wisconsin: 7 times (between 1976 & 2012)
7. New Hampshire: 6 times (between 1992 & 2012)
8. Florida: 6 times (between 1976 & 2012)
9. Colorado: 6 times (between 1972 & 2012)
10. Michigan: 6 times (between 1980 & 2000)
11. Maine: 6 times (between 1972 & 2000)
12. Louisiana: 6 times (between 1976 & 1996)
13. Nevada: 5 times (between 1972 & 2012)
14. Oregon: 5 times (between 1976 & 2000)
15. Connecticut: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
15. Delaware: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
15. New Jersey: 5 times (between 1972 & 1992)
18. Virginia: 4 times (between 1976 & 2012)
19. California: 4 times (between 1976 & 1996)
20. Montana: 4 times (between 1972 & 1992)
21. Vermont: 4 times (between 1972 & 1988)
22. Minnesota: 3 times (between 2000 & 2012)
23. Tennessee: 3 times (between 1984 & 2000)
24. Washington: 3 times (between 1972 & 1996)
25. Kentucky: 3 times (between 1984 & 1992)
26. Texas: 3 times (between 1976 & 1988)
27. Maryland: 3 times (between 1972 & 1988)
28. Illinois: 3 times (between 1972 & 1980)
29. Georgia: Twice (1984 & 1992)
30. South Dakota: Twice (1976 & 1988)
31. West Virginia: Twice (1972 & 1988)
32. Hawaii: Twice (1972 & 1976)
33. Alabama: Once (1984)
33. Arkansas: Once (1984)
35. Mississippi: Once (1976)
35. New York: Once (1976)
35. Oklahoma: Once (1976)
38. Alaska: Once (1972)
38. North Dakota: Once (1972)

40. Kansas: Never (closest 1988, R+5.5%)
41. Indiana: Never (closest 1984, R+5.8%)
41. North Carolina: Never (closest 1984, R+5.8%)
43. Arizona: Never (closest 1996, R+6.3%)
44. South Carolina: Never (closest 1980, D+8.2%)
45. Rhode Island: Never (closest 1976, D+9.2%)
46. Massachusetts: Never (closest 1980, D+9.6%)
47. Wyoming: Never (closest 1992, R+11.2%)
48. Nebraska: Never (closest 1988, R+13.2%)
49. Idaho: Never (closest 1972, R+15%)
50. Utah: Never (closest 1972, R+18.1%)
51. Washington D.C.: Never (closest 1976, D+63.1%)

So no less than 39 states have been a true battleground state at least once since 1972. And a couple of the non-battleground states - North & South Carolina - have been both solidly Democratic and solidly Republican in different elections, but never a true toss-up.

Two "eternal battlegrounds", Missouri and New Mexico, fell out of favor after 2004. However, we've been able to add two fairly new battlegrounds in order to replace them; Minnesota and Virginia.

It depends on how you define battleground. To me battleground means a state is within the national vote margin. In elections like 2000 there were none. Battlegrounds for 2012 were Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. This isn't always reflective as landslide years would have several battleground states and toss up elections would have almost no battleground states.

[eric82oslo]

It depends on how you define battleground. To me battleground means a state is within the national vote margin. In elections like 2000 there were none. Battlegrounds for 2012 were Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. This isn't always reflective as landslide years would have several battleground states and toss up elections would have almost no battleground states.

If you count in another way, then Ohio wouldn't longer be the obvious battleground state, as it has never been close in any landslide election. Which isn't really fair to Ohio, or to the notion of a battleground state.

[barfbag]

It depends on how you define battleground. To me battleground means a state is within the national vote margin. In elections like 2000 there were none. Battlegrounds for 2012 were Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. This isn't always reflective as landslide years would have several battleground states and toss up elections would have almost no battleground states.

If you count in another way, then Ohio wouldn't longer be the obvious battleground state, as it has never been close in any landslide election. Which isn't really fair to Ohio, or to the notion of a battleground state.

Yes but if you count up the number of times a state has fallen within the national vote, you'll reach a list close in its order of respect. Ohio would still be at the very top along with New Mexico, Missouri, and Nevada.

[eric82oslo]

It depends on how you define battleground. To me battleground means a state is within the national vote margin. In elections like 2000 there were none. Battlegrounds for 2012 were Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. This isn't always reflective as landslide years would have several battleground states and toss up elections would have almost no battleground states.

If you count in another way, then Ohio wouldn't longer be the obvious battleground state, as it has never been close in any landslide election. Which isn't really fair to Ohio, or to the notion of a battleground state.

Yes but if you count up the number of times a state has fallen within the national vote, you'll reach a list close in its order of respect. Ohio would still be at the very top along with New Mexico, Missouri, and Nevada.

With the national vote, do you mean close to the popular vote? Cause that's what I did.