KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[RogueBeaver]

Enten doesn't think McConnell will have primary trouble. As for Bevin's speechifying... that was half of why McCain picked Palin.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

McConnell Campaign Posts Photo Of Campaign Manager Holding His Nose



So his staff gets paid so much they'll hold their nose to work and vote for him?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

McConnell Campaign Posts Photo Of Campaign Manager Holding His Nose



Is Mitch not the showering type or something?

Maybe he farted.

[Brittain33]

Not pictured: the lit blowtorch in McConnell's right hand.

[illegaloperation]

“Between you and me, I’m sort of holding my nose for two years because what we’re doing here is going to be a big benefit to Rand in ’16, so that’s my long vision,”

- Mitch McConnell’s campaign manager, Jesse Benton

[Zioneer]

Man, McConnell's green suit-coat makes him look even more like a turtle.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Josh Marshall explains how McConnell going soft on anything as Minority Leader could cost him in the primary and the general.

[windjammer]

He should retire.

[7,052,770]

McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

What seat?

Who knows?  The Tea Party handed us Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado in '10 and Missouri and Indiana in '12.  I'm sure they'll hand us a couple seats in '14.  Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Maine -- could be any of these potentially.  It's too hard to predict this far out, but I guarantee at least 1 of these states will nominate a complete buffoon as the Republican who hands the seat to the Democrat, while a more mainstream Republican who would've won loses the primary.

[Ogre Mage]

Grimes starts to fill in some of her policy views.  She says she is pro-choice and would delay the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that small businesses provide medical coverage to their employees.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/03/alison-lundergan-grimes-abortion-positions_n_3698539.html

[ElectionsGuy]

McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

What seat?

Who knows?  The Tea Party handed us Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado in '10 and Missouri and Indiana in '12.  I'm sure they'll hand us a couple seats in '14.  Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Maine -- could be any of these potentially.  It's too hard to predict this far out, but I guarantee at least 1 of these states will nominate a complete buffoon as the Republican who hands the seat to the Democrat, while a more mainstream Republican who would've won loses the primary.

OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd, West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected), Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is) and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

[7,052,770]

OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd,

I think you're misunderstanding me.  Of course Texas and Mississippi are longshots.  The only way Democrats win is if Republicans nominate an off-the-deep-end Tea Party-type and Democrats run a decent candidate.  The fact that it's happened in 5 of the last 67 Senate races, and the Tea Party still doesn't get it, leads me to believe it will happen again somewhere.  Maybe not in those states, but somewhere.

West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected),

Obviously if Rounds and Capito are the candidates, Republicans are very likely to win.  But somewhere in the country, the Tea Party is going to get some fool nominated and cause Republicans to lose a seat they otherwise would have won.  SD and WV are prime candidates.

Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is)

The Tea Party types sure hate Collins, and if they knock her out in the primary, Democrats will probably win the seat.  Granted, I don't think it's very likely, but you just never know.  I didn't think there was any way Democrats would win Dick Lugar's seat, but then the Tea Party fixed it for us.

and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

If McConnell wins the primary, Republicans probably win.  If a non-Tea Partier in Georgia wins the nomination, Republicans are very likely to win.  But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an Akin-type ends up being the nominee in one or both of these states.

Again, I'm not saying that Democrats will win any of these seats if Republicans run reasonable conservatives instead of Akin/Murdouch/Angle/O'Donell/Buck - types.  But there's just too much will within the Republican base to nominate that type of candidate, so somewhere they probably will.

[greenforest32]

Which should Democrats be hoping for? That McConnell wins the primary or loses it? Bevin is more of a Ron Johnson than a Todd Akin right?

[RogueBeaver]

No one knows anything about Bevin except he's a Generic TP Businessman. Though I'm sure once McConnell's through with him we'll know a lot more.

[PolitiJunkie]

Which should Democrats be hoping for? That McConnell wins the primary or loses it? Bevin is more of a Ron Johnson than a Todd Akin right?

I think democrats are hoping McConnell wins his primary but by a close margin, comes out of it weakened, and had to divert a lot of time/money to defeating Bevin that could have been spent defeating grimes. That is the situation that would best lead to Grimes winning, not if McConnell loses the primary.

[Morning in Atlas]

Which should Democrats be hoping for? That McConnell wins the primary or loses it? Bevin is more of a Ron Johnson than a Todd Akin right?

Definitely, I think you hit the Johnson comparison on the head. I'd say you hit the comparison on the head. Except this time, he's running in a blue state and not a maroon state. And younger. I'd say Bevin has the edge against Grimes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bevin doesn't have a chance in hell against Grimes.

[RogueBeaver]

First $100 million+ Senate race.

[bballrox4717]

Which should Democrats be hoping for? That McConnell wins the primary or loses it? Bevin is more of a Ron Johnson than a Todd Akin right?

I think democrats are hoping McConnell wins his primary but by a close margin, comes out of it weakened, and had to divert a lot of time/money to defeating Bevin that could have been spent defeating grimes. That is the situation that would best lead to Grimes winning, not if McConnell loses the primary.

[ElectionsGuy]

OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd,

I think you're misunderstanding me.  Of course Texas and Mississippi are longshots.  The only way Democrats win is if Republicans nominate an off-the-deep-end Tea Party-type and Democrats run a decent candidate.  The fact that it's happened in 5 of the last 67 Senate races, and the Tea Party still doesn't get it, leads me to believe it will happen again somewhere.  Maybe not in those states, but somewhere.

West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected),

Obviously if Rounds and Capito are the candidates, Republicans are very likely to win.  But somewhere in the country, the Tea Party is going to get some fool nominated and cause Republicans to lose a seat they otherwise would have won.  SD and WV are prime candidates.

Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is)

The Tea Party types sure hate Collins, and if they knock her out in the primary, Democrats will probably win the seat.  Granted, I don't think it's very likely, but you just never know.  I didn't think there was any way Democrats would win Dick Lugar's seat, but then the Tea Party fixed it for us.

and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

If McConnell wins the primary, Republicans probably win.  If a non-Tea Partier in Georgia wins the nomination, Republicans are very likely to win.  But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an Akin-type ends up being the nominee in one or both of these states.

Again, I'm not saying that Democrats will win any of these seats if Republicans run reasonable conservatives instead of Akin/Murdouch/Angle/O'Donell/Buck - types.  But there's just too much will within the Republican base to nominate that type of candidate, so somewhere they probably will.

I really hope the tea party learned from '12 and '10 that they have to nominate the best candidates, not the most conservative candidates. The only races I'm really worried about this cycle are Georgia (Broun/Gingrey), and possibly Montana (if Daines doesn't run) and Alaska (if Treadwell doesn't get nominated). ME, WV, LA, AR, are going well as long as the front running candidates get nominated. TX and MS will be fine regardless of any candidates (IMO). Kentucky should be a tight but expected race for Mr. McConnell. I don't think there's nearly as many mistakes to be made this time as the last few cycles, but you'd think the tea party (which has good intent) would learn from their mistakes from NV ('10), CO ('10), MO ('12), IN ('12).

[RogueBeaver]

Trende deep-dives and concludes McConnell has the edge.

[windjammer]

I agree. KY isn't a toss up.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell's newest ad. Can only imagine what the TV ads will be like. Hell, Cillizza mused yesterday that the state's TV markets could be completely saturated.

[Niemeyerite]

McConnell's newest ad. Can only imagine what the TV ads will be like. Hell, Cillizza mused yesterday that the state's TV markets could be completely saturated.

I'm beginning to like Bevin. He may endorse Ludergan Grimes when McConnell beats him, after all.