To our resident Pennsylvanians: What's with Philly?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Couple of quick questions:

1. how the hell do the Republicans get less than 100,000 votes in this city?  I've spent plenty of time in Philly, it's a huge city with plenty of people who strike me as conservative, and yet there are so few Republicans.

2. Furthermore, how does that vote just keep dropping?  Yes, the Democratic vote percentage is going up.  68 > 75 > 80 > 80 > 83 > 85.  But even weirder is the raw GOP vote just dropping so hard.  Turnout was down in 2012 as compared to 2008.  Obama, who won roughly 4/5's of the vote both times, lost 7,000 raw votes.  Romney somehow lost 21,000 (!) votes compared to McCain, in a swing state, in a year the GOP was supposed to be all jazzed up to come out and oust Obama. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

1. Philadelphia is 45% black, and we all know how the heavily black wards vote in Philly (that is, plenty of precincts without a single Romney vote). Latino wards aren't so unanimous, but Romney got at best 15% of the Puerto Rican vote (by far the largest Latino community in the city). As for "plenty of people who strike me as conservative,", there are a couple ways to answer that. One, it's likely that a good chunk of them live in the collar counties and simply work in Philadelphia; Obama won fairly comfortably in Montco and Delaware thanks to urbanization, but suburban/exurban white areas in those counties and in Bucks, Chester (and Berks and Lancaster, which are being drawn into Greater Philadelphia thanks to public transportation) saw strong gains for Romney in 2012.

South Philly and the banks of the Delaware River also have plenty of blue-collar whites (particularly Italian, Irish, and Polish Catholics); these people are often culturally conservative, but for the most part still lean Democratic. Based on demographics, I'd ballpark Obama's share of the white vote in Philadelphia at about 60%. Basically all of Romney's votes in Philadelphia came from either them or from the wealthier, more suburban portions of Philadelphia in the northeast of the city-county.

2. White flight.

[traininthedistance]

1. Philadelphia is 45% black, and we all know how the heavily black wards vote in Philly (that is, plenty of precincts without a single Romney vote). Latino wards aren't so unanimous, but Romney got at best 15% of the Puerto Rican vote (by far the largest Latino community in the city). As for "plenty of people who strike me as conservative,", there are a couple ways to answer that. One, it's likely that a good chunk of them live in the collar counties and simply work in Philadelphia; Obama won fairly comfortably in Montco and Delaware thanks to urbanization, but suburban/exurban white areas in those counties and in Bucks, Chester (and Berks and Lancaster, which are being drawn into Greater Philadelphia thanks to public transportation) saw strong gains for Romney in 2012.

South Philly and the banks of the Delaware River also have plenty of blue-collar whites (particularly Italian, Irish, and Polish Catholics); these people are often culturally conservative, but for the most part still lean Democratic. Based on demographics, I'd ballpark Obama's share of the white vote in Philadelphia at about 60%. Basically all of Romney's votes in Philadelphia came from either them or from the wealthier, more suburban portions of Philadelphia in the northeast of the city-county.

2. White flight.

Obama's share of the white vote in Philly was almost certainly well above 60%- remember that whites vote at much better clips than Hispanics and Asians.  Non-Hispanic whites are 37% of the city's population, so probably somewhere in the 40s of the electorate; mid-to-high-60s seems more likely.  I also wouldn't be surprised if the white population might actually be increasing now, as the city has been gaining population for several years running; certainly it is increasing in West Philly at least, probably in the Northwest and several other areas. 

Another factor is that the culturally conservative, Dem, blue-collar whites that still exist are probably shrinking overall, but likely also swung to Obama in 2012- they may have voted McCain in 2008 because they were scared of the black man, but then got used to him four years later and were more scared by the 47% comment.

Let's break it down by region.

In South Philly, the culturally conservative old-timers are fading away, actually.  They're being replaced by a mix of things: a lot of Hispanic and Asian immigrants (the Italian Market is now more like the Mexican Market), as well as yuppies along stretches such as East Passyunk.

In Center City, the whites are Manhattan-style super-solid liberal, and have been so for a while.

In West Philly, the whites are mostly affiliated with Penn or Drexel, or are punk/anarchist lesbians who voted for Peta Lindsay instead.  Good luck finding a Republican anywhere.  (I lived here for several years.  It was pretty great.  I miss the trolleys, cheap rent, and $3.25 bagel with lox.)

In North Philly, good luck finding a white anywhere.

In the Northeast, the Chestnut Hill/Mt. Airy area is latte lib central, while Manayunk/Roxborough (aka 17th Grade) skews young.  There are a few more conservative old-timers, but pretty sure Obama hit in the 60s even in his worst precincts there.

The river wards are kinda like Manayunk/Roxborough.  Some old-timers (who still mostly vote Dem), but the youngn's are moving in, and pushing things to the left.

That leaves the Northeast, where Republicans still exist in numbers (congrats, Phil!).  But that's... what, one-fifth of the city's population?  And again, even here Romney was a pretty bad cultural fit.

[barfbag]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

[PolitiJunkie]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

When I saw that the most recent post in this thread by you, I said to myself "if barfbag's post has the words 'voter fraud'..."

You are too predictable!

And Snowstalker already mentioned that there were precincts where Romney got 0 votes. Those are from wards that very well may be entirely black. It's not that infeasible that in certain small precincts of major urban areas with large minority populations, a Republican candidate would get 0 votes.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

We routinely get zero votes in a few virtually all-black precincts in Memphis.  I think that's less a result of fraud, and more a result of the fact that (in general) African-Americans just don't like us very much. 

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

At first I though Romney getting zilch in FIFTY-NINE precincts was a sign of voter fraud, but the more I looked into it the more I realized that this is just slightly below average for Republicans. Bush had 5 no-vote precincts in 2004 and McCain had 57 in 2008. I'm confident that the vast majority of these zero-vote precincts are at least 85-90% black in not more.

[barfbag]

At first I though Romney getting zilch in FIFTY-NINE precincts was a sign of voter fraud, but the more I looked into it the more I realized that this is just slightly below average for Republicans. Bush had 5 no-vote precincts in 2004 and McCain had 57 in 2008. I'm confident that the vast majority of these zero-vote precincts are at least 85-90% black in not more.

It sounds and smells fishy.

[TJ in Oregon]

It doesn't sound fishy at all. Htmldon has it right: the 4% or whatever the Republicans get of the black vote doesn't come from blacks living in 90% black neighborhoods in an impoverished urban ghetto, it comes from the swath of 2% black suburban areas where the handful of black people who live there are largely separated from the black community. And yes, the black community makes semi-collective decisions about voting based largely on the perception that the GOP is out to get them. At least in my experience, most black Americans have much less of an individualistic mindset than the populus in general. I'd be a little more surprised to see 90% black precincts that weren't close to unanimously Democrat on the presidential level.

[PolitiJunkie]

At first I though Romney getting zilch in FIFTY-NINE precincts was a sign of voter fraud, but the more I looked into it the more I realized that this is just slightly below average for Republicans. Bush had 5 no-vote precincts in 2004 and McCain had 57 in 2008. I'm confident that the vast majority of these zero-vote precincts are at least 85-90% black in not more.

It sounds and smells fishy.

What are you getting at here?

It doesn't sound fishy at all. Htmldon has it right: the 4% or whatever the Republicans get of the black vote doesn't come from blacks living in 90% black neighborhoods in an impoverished urban ghetto, it comes from the swath of 2% black suburban areas where the handful of black people who live there are largely separated from the black community.

Yes. Thank you.

[ElectionsGuy]

It doesn't sound fishy at all. Htmldon has it right: the 4% or whatever the Republicans get of the black vote doesn't come from blacks living in 90% black neighborhoods in an impoverished urban ghetto, it comes from the swath of 2% black suburban areas where the handful of black people who live there are largely separated from the black community. And yes, the black community makes semi-collective decisions about voting based largely on the perception that the GOP is out to get them. At least in my experience, most black Americans have much less of an individualistic mindset than the populus in general. I'd be a little more surprised to see 90% black precincts that weren't close to unanimously Democrat on the presidential level.

I would agree with that, either most republican blacks live in suburbia and rural America or blacks are perhaps more democratic then our exit polls tell us. 

[RedSLC]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

[PolitiJunkie]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

ZOMGGG VOTER FRAUDDSSSZZZ! ROMNEY WON POPULAR VOTE 55-43. AMERICANZZ HATE OBUMMER!

[Supersonic]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

ZOMGGG VOTER FRAUDDSSSZZZ! ROMNEY WON POPULAR VOTE 55-43. AMERICANZZ HATE OBUMMER!

UnskewedPolls.com

[ElectionsGuy]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

Utah County?

[Orser67]

In North Philly, good luck finding a white anywhere.

As a white person who lives and votes in North Philly (well, the Temple area), I'm offended (just kidding). But actually, your analysis rocked, and I think that that pretty much covered most of what I would have to say.


According to Wikipedia, the party registration breakdown is 78% D, 13% R, and 9% other.  Democrats hold 14 of the 17 city council seats, but two of those seats they may hold only because the minority party is guaranteed two at-large seats.  The one Republican who represents a district does indeed represent the Northeast. Just thought that was interesting.

In my experience, many whites who aren't liberal in Philly are apolitical or libertarian-leaning and disappointed with both parties, so they stay home rather than vote Republican. The other thing is that both South Philly and the Northeast really aren't all that densely populated.

For whatever anecdotal evidence is worth, I've voted in Chester County, Montgomery County, and in North Philadelphia, and I didn't notice anything different about voting in Philly.

[traininthedistance]

In North Philly, good luck finding a white anywhere.

As a white person who lives and votes in North Philly (well, the Temple area), I'm offended (just kidding). But actually, your analysis rocked, and I think that that pretty much covered most of what I would have to say.


According to Wikipedia, the party registration breakdown is 78% D, 13% R, and 9% other.  Democrats hold 14 of the 17 city council seats, but two of those seats they may hold only because the minority party is guaranteed two at-large seats.  The one Republican who represents a district does indeed represent the Northeast. Just thought that was interesting.

In my experience, many whites who aren't liberal in Philly are apolitical or libertarian-leaning and disappointed with both parties, so they stay home rather than vote Republican. The other thing is that both South Philly and the Northeast really aren't all that densely populated.

For whatever anecdotal evidence is worth, I've voted in Chester County, Montgomery County, and in North Philadelphia, and I didn't notice anything different about voting in Philly.

Thank you.

I'd quibble and say that South Philly is quite dense, at least the residential parts.  What is true, though, is that a lot of it's land area is given over to industry, highways, the sports complex/Navy Yard, etc.  There just isn't a lot of area in South Philly where people live- but within the six or so square miles that people live, they do live densely.

[krazen1211]

Whites fled the city. 263k of them between 1990 and 2010. The Northeast was especially hit hard.

[barfbag]

Whites fled the city. 263k of them between 1990 and 2010. The Northeast was especially hit hard.

Can you blame people for wanting to leave Philly?

[krazen1211]

Whites fled the city. 263k of them between 1990 and 2010. The Northeast was especially hit hard.

Can you blame people for wanting to leave Philly?

Parts of the city are growing. The new white yuppies will have to pay for all the legacy costs of the whites who fled over the last 50 years.

[barfbag]

Whites fled the city. 263k of them between 1990 and 2010. The Northeast was especially hit hard.

Can you blame people for wanting to leave Philly?

Parts of the city are growing. The new white yuppies will have to pay for all the legacy costs of the whites who fled over the last 50 years.

Good for them.

[RedSLC]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

Utah County?

Most of them were there, but I'm pretty sure Box Elder County had a couple as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

Utah County?

Most of them were there, but I'm pretty sure Box Elder County had a couple as well.

Idaho is possible too, even Wyoming could have one or two (Gillette).

[barfbag]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

Utah County?

Most of them were there, but I'm pretty sure Box Elder County had a couple as well.

Idaho is possible too, even Wyoming could have one or two (Gillette).

You mean precincts where no one voted for Obama?

[ElectionsGuy]

You believe Philly was really that big of a landslide? If you search voter fraud in Philly, you'll find a long list of results. I remember seeing a precinct where Romney got 0 votes. Come on!

On the flipside of this, Utah had several precincts where Obama got zero votes. It really isn't that surprising.

Utah County?

Most of them were there, but I'm pretty sure Box Elder County had a couple as well.

Idaho is possible too, even Wyoming could have one or two (Gillette).

You mean precincts where no one voted for Obama?

Yes