AK-PPP: Begich +4 on Treadwell (user search)
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  AK-PPP: Begich +4 on Treadwell (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK-PPP: Begich +4 on Treadwell  (Read 2342 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,637
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Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: July 30, 2013, 03:02:10 PM »

Let's be honest with ourselves. Palin's out. Sullivan doesn't seem to have made any tangible moves towards a candidacy beyond just 'considering it'. Miller's in last place however you poll; so on the whole it's difficult to see Treadwell not winning the nomination.

And his path to victory over Begich is pretty clear. His name recognition is significantly lower than Begich's (64% recognize Treadwell; 83% recognize Begich), while Begich's own approval ratings are pretty anemic (+1 in such a red state isn't a good place to be). Add that to the fact that Alaska Democrats are always overstated in polling (in 2004 Knowles was supposed to beat Murkowski; in 2006 Knowles was barely behind Palin in polling, he lost by 9%; in 2008 Berkowitz was supposed to beat Young; in 2008 Begich was supposed to beat Stevens by double-digits, he won by just 1%; in 2010 McAdams was actually pretty reasonably judged by most polling companies, but PPP had him doing way better than he did (their final October 31 poll had him at 30%, he got 23%)). The one exception I can find is that local company Dittman Research seems to go the opposite direction and always overestimates Republicans. But the point is, considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican and that pollsters always overestimate Alaska Democrats. I'm feeling pretty good about Treadwell's chances.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2013, 08:27:24 PM »

Let's be honest with ourselves. Palin's out. Sullivan doesn't seem to have made any tangible moves towards a candidacy beyond just 'considering it'. Miller's in last place however you poll; so on the whole it's difficult to see Treadwell not winning the nomination.

And his path to victory over Begich is pretty clear. His name recognition is significantly lower than Begich's (64% recognize Treadwell; 83% recognize Begich), while Begich's own approval ratings are pretty anemic (+1 in such a red state isn't a good place to be). Add that to the fact that Alaska Democrats are always overstated in polling (in 2004 Knowles was supposed to beat Murkowski; in 2006 Knowles was barely behind Palin in polling, he lost by 9%; in 2008 Berkowitz was supposed to beat Young; in 2008 Begich was supposed to beat Stevens by double-digits, he won by just 1%; in 2010 McAdams was actually pretty reasonably judged by most polling companies, but PPP had him doing way better than he did (their final October 31 poll had him at 30%, he got 23%)). The one exception I can find is that local company Dittman Research seems to go the opposite direction and always overestimates Republicans. But the point is, considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican and that pollsters always overestimate Alaska Democrats. I'm feeling pretty good about Treadwell's chances.

I'd be curious if this is a result of the Democratic candidate or the non-incumbent candidate overpolling.

2006 suggests the former (Palin v. Knowles, open-seat, Knowles was overestimated), but 2010 is unclear (you had a 'Democrat', McAdams, and a 'non-incumbent', Miller, and they were both overestimated). I think it's a mixture of both...

Begich smells like a Pelosi. The people won't be fooled.

krazen whatever anyone else may say I almost always love your posts
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