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  AK-PPP: Begich +4 on Treadwell
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Author Topic: AK-PPP: Begich +4 on Treadwell  (Read 1943 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 30, 2013, 09:44:59 am »

44-40 to be precise. Leads Sullivan 46/39 and Miller 55/32. Pub primary would be 33 Treadwell, 25 Sullivan, 24 Miller. Begich's approvals are 42/41.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2013, 10:11:32 am »

This poll makes me feel MUCH better about Miller's chances.

This race is definitely winnable if Treadwell is the nominee - a majority of undecided voters are conservative.
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2013, 10:32:05 am »

So Begich seems to be more vulnerable than Landrieu. I don't like him, a libertarian democrat: Yuk.

Who is Sullivan?
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2013, 10:33:00 am »

This poll makes me feel MUCH better about Miller's chances.

Is this sarcasm?
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2013, 10:43:41 am »

Voting against background checks did really hurt him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2013, 10:48:14 am »

So Begich seems to be more vulnerable than Landrieu. I don't like him, a libertarian democrat: Yuk.

Who is Sullivan?

The natural resources commissioner.

Voting against background checks did really hurt him.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2013, 11:09:30 am »

This poll makes me feel MUCH better about Miller's chances.

Is this sarcasm?
It makes me feel better knowing his chance of winning is so small. I would support Begich over Miller.
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Beat-Em-All Beto
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2013, 02:31:35 pm »

I still feel good about this race. Begich has the money and the profile. I think he wins this 52-46 in the end.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2013, 02:50:55 pm »

Begich is favored, but Alaska polling is known for being difficult and unreliable. He'd obviously beat Miller (or Palin), though.
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2013, 03:02:10 pm »

Let's be honest with ourselves. Palin's out. Sullivan doesn't seem to have made any tangible moves towards a candidacy beyond just 'considering it'. Miller's in last place however you poll; so on the whole it's difficult to see Treadwell not winning the nomination.

And his path to victory over Begich is pretty clear. His name recognition is significantly lower than Begich's (64% recognize Treadwell; 83% recognize Begich), while Begich's own approval ratings are pretty anemic (+1 in such a red state isn't a good place to be). Add that to the fact that Alaska Democrats are always overstated in polling (in 2004 Knowles was supposed to beat Murkowski; in 2006 Knowles was barely behind Palin in polling, he lost by 9%; in 2008 Berkowitz was supposed to beat Young; in 2008 Begich was supposed to beat Stevens by double-digits, he won by just 1%; in 2010 McAdams was actually pretty reasonably judged by most polling companies, but PPP had him doing way better than he did (their final October 31 poll had him at 30%, he got 23%)). The one exception I can find is that local company Dittman Research seems to go the opposite direction and always overestimates Republicans. But the point is, considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican and that pollsters always overestimate Alaska Democrats. I'm feeling pretty good about Treadwell's chances.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2013, 04:04:40 pm »

New Poll: Alaska Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-07-28

Summary: D: 44%, R: 40%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2013, 06:09:07 pm »

Begich's saving grace may be the fact that Alaska is very pro-incumbent.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2013, 06:23:36 pm »

Let's be honest with ourselves. Palin's out. Sullivan doesn't seem to have made any tangible moves towards a candidacy beyond just 'considering it'. Miller's in last place however you poll; so on the whole it's difficult to see Treadwell not winning the nomination.

And his path to victory over Begich is pretty clear. His name recognition is significantly lower than Begich's (64% recognize Treadwell; 83% recognize Begich), while Begich's own approval ratings are pretty anemic (+1 in such a red state isn't a good place to be). Add that to the fact that Alaska Democrats are always overstated in polling (in 2004 Knowles was supposed to beat Murkowski; in 2006 Knowles was barely behind Palin in polling, he lost by 9%; in 2008 Berkowitz was supposed to beat Young; in 2008 Begich was supposed to beat Stevens by double-digits, he won by just 1%; in 2010 McAdams was actually pretty reasonably judged by most polling companies, but PPP had him doing way better than he did (their final October 31 poll had him at 30%, he got 23%)). The one exception I can find is that local company Dittman Research seems to go the opposite direction and always overestimates Republicans. But the point is, considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican and that pollsters always overestimate Alaska Democrats. I'm feeling pretty good about Treadwell's chances.

I'd be curious if this is a result of the Democratic candidate or the non-incumbent candidate overpolling.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2013, 07:58:51 pm »

Begich's saving grace may be the fact that Alaska is very pro-incumbent.

Yes. Unless, a scandal pops up between now and election day, he'll probably survive.

In Alaska, there was only one incumbent senator who has ever lost reelection while three incumbents who have lost the primaries.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2013, 08:02:28 pm »

Begich smells like a Pelosi. The people won't be fooled.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2013, 08:22:08 pm »

Begich smells like a Pelosi. The people won't be fooled.

Thank you for your 100% useless comment.
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Beat-Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2013, 08:23:43 pm »

Begich smells like a Pelosi. The people won't be fooled.
Exactly Krazy. Which is why they won't be fooled into electing Treadwell whilst Begich is doing a fine job.
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Vosem
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2013, 08:27:24 pm »

Let's be honest with ourselves. Palin's out. Sullivan doesn't seem to have made any tangible moves towards a candidacy beyond just 'considering it'. Miller's in last place however you poll; so on the whole it's difficult to see Treadwell not winning the nomination.

And his path to victory over Begich is pretty clear. His name recognition is significantly lower than Begich's (64% recognize Treadwell; 83% recognize Begich), while Begich's own approval ratings are pretty anemic (+1 in such a red state isn't a good place to be). Add that to the fact that Alaska Democrats are always overstated in polling (in 2004 Knowles was supposed to beat Murkowski; in 2006 Knowles was barely behind Palin in polling, he lost by 9%; in 2008 Berkowitz was supposed to beat Young; in 2008 Begich was supposed to beat Stevens by double-digits, he won by just 1%; in 2010 McAdams was actually pretty reasonably judged by most polling companies, but PPP had him doing way better than he did (their final October 31 poll had him at 30%, he got 23%)). The one exception I can find is that local company Dittman Research seems to go the opposite direction and always overestimates Republicans. But the point is, considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican and that pollsters always overestimate Alaska Democrats. I'm feeling pretty good about Treadwell's chances.

I'd be curious if this is a result of the Democratic candidate or the non-incumbent candidate overpolling.

2006 suggests the former (Palin v. Knowles, open-seat, Knowles was overestimated), but 2010 is unclear (you had a 'Democrat', McAdams, and a 'non-incumbent', Miller, and they were both overestimated). I think it's a mixture of both...

Begich smells like a Pelosi. The people won't be fooled.

krazen whatever anyone else may say I almost always love your posts
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2013, 10:55:16 pm »

[...] considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican [...]

Alaska is the most elastic Atlas blue state, so these are most likely genuine undecided voters up for grab.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2013, 10:43:06 am »

[...] considering that most of the undecideds probably tilt Republican [...]

Alaska is the most elastic Atlas blue state, so these are most likely genuine undecided voters up for grab.

Sure, Alaska is an elastic state but it can only stretch so far, historically undecided voters lean republican in Alaska. According to Gallup 46.5% of residents lean republican, so that's the floor for republicans, and 34.3% lean democratic, which is the floor for democrats. That suggests that Begich's result in 2008 was close to the ceiling for democrats in that state. Ted Stevens got 46.5% of the vote 2008, the exact same number that lean republican. No matter what happens here this will be a close race and is certainly still a pure toss-up. Here are estimates of the range of votes based on Gallup.

Alaska republican range of vote (estimate): 46.5%-65.7%.
Alaska democratic range of vote(estimate): 34.3%-53.5%.
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