What currently serving member of Congress is most likely to become POTUS?

[tpfkaw]

What do you think?

[badgate]

I wish we could pick more than one

[Zioneer]

I like the idea of Martin Heinrich becoming president, to be honest.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I like the idea of Martin Heinrich becoming president, to be honest.

Been saying that since Summer 2012. For some reason he gets skipped over when we talk about Democratic Rising Stars.

[Mister Mets]

Interesting question.

It's entirely conceivable that no currently serving member of Congress will become President. For example, if Hillary Clinton serves a term from 2016-2020 and Chris Christie serves two terms from 2020-2028. By the time the 2028 election comes along, it could be that no one serving in Congress in 2013 would get the nomination/ win the general election.

It's not going to be Michelle Bachmann (too crazy), Sherrod Brown (too old) or Chuck Schumer (Democrats prefer three other New Yorkers.)
There are probably twenty House members with the same shot as Jared Polis.


Joaquin Castro has an okay shot, but he may difficulties winning statewide office. And there is his brother. Still, I would imagine the party is eager to nominate a Hispanic candidate.
Tom Cotton has a good background, although I'm not sure how Republicans are to nominate a small-state southerner.
Joe Kennedy III has a name that doesn't mean much.
Elizabeth Warren only has one chance, and I've seen no indication of interest.
Ron Johnson has to worry about reelection.
Rob Portman's not likely to win a primary unless he becomes Veep.
Rand Paul is likely to have some level of support for some time to come, but I suspect he'll have too many enemies in the party.
Ted Cruz is young, beloved by the base of one of the major parties and comes from a state that has produced three of the last nine Presidents.
Marco Rubio is young, also from an advantageous state and has more political talent than Cruz
Kirsten Gilibrand has advantages as a potential candidate, though timing may be an issue.

Paul Ryan, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner were left out of the list. All seem likelier than Schumer and Bachmann.

As loathe as I am to say it, at the moment I'll go with Ted Cruz.

[The Simpsons Cinematic Universe]

Of all of these, I'd say Ted Cruz.

[PolitiJunkie]

As loathe as I am to say it, at the moment I'll go with Ted Cruz.

Of all of these, I'd say Ted Cruz.

Do either of you genuinely believe that Ted Cruz, if nominated, could ever win a general election?

[Rocky Rockefeller]

For Republicans the most likely is Rubio: young, hispanic, from a swing state.

For Dems, I'll go with Gillibrand: also young, ambitious, and New York is a strong state politically and historically.

[Del Tachi]

Of those mentioned, it would have to be Paul.  He's the only one that I'm pretty sure is running in 2016.

[tpfkaw]

Seems I forgot Paul Ryan - oops.

[Mister Mets]

As loathe as I am to say it, at the moment I'll go with Ted Cruz.

Of all of these, I'd say Ted Cruz.

Do either of you genuinely believe that Ted Cruz, if nominated, could ever win a general election?

Yes.

The people he has upset the most are his fellow members of Congress, who tend to have a low approval rating, and liberal activists, who wouldn't support a Huntsman/ Christie ticket over a generic Democrat.

Plus, anyone who wins a major party nomination has a conceivable chance of winning the general election, especially in the current partisan environment in which the last seven elections have all come within a single digit difference in the popular vote.

While another Republican nominee might run a few points higher, it won't always make a difference in the outcome of the vote.

Younger candidates tend to do well, so Cruz has that going him for him until about 2024.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Nobody at the moment, except some random backbencher who will go on to distinguish himself 5-10 years in the future: the current congress is just too unpopular for anyone prominent in it, from either party, to have a shot at the presidency.

[Blue3]

Gillibrand won't challenge Hillary. Rubio won't beat Hillary. Paul won't be able to be nominated. By the end of her second term in 2025, we'll have had 12 years in which newer candidates were elected.

After electing the first African-American and the first Woman to the presidency, the Democrats will want to nominate either a Hispanic (we have few if any potential future presidential nominees who are Hispanic right now) or someone who's Gay. And they'll want to nominate someone's who's younger.

Jared Polis is gay, young, from Colorado, a very successful businessman, and a Congressman who could become Senator or Governor between now and 2020. So I'd say he's the most likely out of this bunch, on the Democratic side. (the Castro brothers have a chance, but they are severely limited unless one of them can win Governor or Senator in Texas by 2020)

On the Republican side, unless Rubio gives it another try and 2016 wasn't too damaging for him, not impossible, I don't see anyone listed being likely at all to become President. Cruz could become a perennial candidate, perhaps even be nominated, but he has no potential of becoming president.

[Fritz]

This topic really doesn't belong on this board.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rubio, Ryan, Paul and Gillibrand.

[barfbag]

I'm going to say Eric Cantor because he's the best at detailing policy.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably Portman.

[Vosem]

John Boehner, being third in line for the office and whatnot. Off of this list, Marco Rubio.