States changing party

[everybodyvote]

I think that in the long run, the following states will go Democratic
Arizona
Texas
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alaska

And the following states will go Republican
Wisconsin
Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota

Thoughts?

[JRP1994]

Agreed on every state except Michigan.

[Space7]

Arizona:
Probably. I think maybe by the early 2040s.

Texas:
Agree again. Depends on certain aspects of turnout though. I personally think it will remain Republican for quite a while longer, as it's not really showing signs of Democratic trending right now.

North Carolina:
Almost certainly. I say late 2030s.

South Carolina:
Will take much longer than NC or Georgia. It probably will eventually, but not in the near foreseeable future. At that point, the future is too murky to assume much.

Georgia:
Yes again, further behind than North Carolina, closer than South Carolina. Maybe 2050s? It really is speculative at best to tell what politics will look like 30 years down the road.

Alaska:
I dunno about this... Alaska's a very deep red (atlas blue) state and I don't really see any immediate trends that are obvious. That being said, Alaska is a very small state in terms of population and it could be tipped by a demographic shift. Alaska's also quite elastic, and that would help too.

Wisconsin:
It did have a steep Republican trend in 2012, but that being said, it had moderate Democratic trends in 2004 and 2008. I still say it's too early to call a trend.

Ohio:
I'm not dismissing the possibility, but just wondering, what makes you think it will be more Republican in the future? It's held remarkably steady as a very lean Republican state as long as anyone can remember.

Michigan:
Similar case to Wisconsin, but even further away from the Republicans. It's been trending Democratic prior to 2012 for a long time, and I have doubts on that abnormality being something genuine, I'd say it was a fluke.

Pennsylvania:
I don't entirely doubt it. It has been sliding towards the Republicans for the last two elections, but it may rubber band back yet. Pennsylvania has a habit of looking like fool's gold to the Republicans.

Minnesota:
Judging by this image, https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/10963_06_07_13_1_08_04.png, Minnesota seems to be leveling out as a semi-weak Democratic state despite trending Republican for a while. It might even be trending slightly Democratic again, IMHO.

[barfbag]

I think that in the long run, the following states will go Democratic
Arizona
Texas
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alaska

And the following states will go Republican
Wisconsin
Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota

Thoughts?

This list is at least a generation or two away. When I look at the states to go Republican, they seem pretty much where they were at a generation ago too, slightly to the left and Ohio right in the middle. I doubt Alaska will ever go Democratic unless there's a landslide because it just doesn't have enough people for either party to want to spend money in. Texas has a very strong Republican base too and Latinos there aren't as Democratic as the rest of the country. There have been left trends in NC and GA. As recent as 2008, SC trended to the right so we'll see. Again, I think this list is about 40 years away.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Alaska's moving left, and fast.

Alaska PVI: 2000-2012

2000: R+31.47
2004: R+23.09
2008: R+28.81
2012: R+17.85

2008 has Palin on the ballot, so that might be a fluke. Over these four cycles, Alaska trends 4.54% to the Democrats on average each cycle. By 2028, it will have a +D PVI.

[opebo]

I agree with Space 7 - the idea that the Midwest is heading for reliably Republican is dubious.

[DS0816]

I think that in the long run, the following states will go Democratic
Arizona
Texas
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alaska

And the following states will go Republican
Wisconsin
Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota

Thoughts?

With the first half, it depends on how large a national victory and the partisan-voting indexes of the two states, through gradual changes, during this realigning presidential period favoring the Democratic Party. (This is not a list of base states for Team Blue!)

The second half of the entire list, with exception of king-making bellwether Ohio, is only feasible if the two major parties realign back to what they were before what we have now.

[eric82oslo]

I think that in the long run, the following states will go Democratic
Arizona
Texas
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Alaska

And the following states will go Republican
Wisconsin
Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota

Thoughts?

In the long term, I agree on every single one.

The first five states have all a very rapid growth of minorities, and are all either minority-majority (Texas) or are going to be in the not too distant future. I think the odd one out for many people is probably Alaska. But due to its heavily Republican past, we often forget how big a percentage that Native Americans make up in the state (about 13%) and with the other minorities included, Alaska will end up being only about 60% white by 2020. Also Alaska has a very young and socially libertarian population, which makes the current state of GOP affairs anything but a good fit for the state. I'd say that 4 of the 6 states will rapidly move towards Democrats, while for South Carolina and Alaska it will probably take a little bit longer.

Minnesota and Pennsylvania have clearly moved right since the 1980s. In the 80s, Minnesota was considered the most liberal state of the union, and the only state in the nation which didn't even once vote for Reagan. Today, Minnesota is of course just another battleground state, and long gone is its liberal past. Today it's really Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland and New York which are fighting it out for the Crown of Liberalism. Today's highly educated, socially libertarian Democratic party is also not a good fit for the historically very working class state of Pennsylvania. Although it clearly has its big, educated cities (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh), much of the rest of the state might perhaps confuse one with West Virginia. Hillary will probably win it, while most other Democrats would probably struggle with the state. Even as early as in 2016. It's enough to mention Santorum, perhaps the most socially conservative "mainstream" politician in the US, being from the state. Ohio has always had a Republican tilt and its demographic changing at a slower pace and being more white than the rest of the US. Thus gravity alone should make it turn even more Republican. Much of the same goes for the traditionally Democratic-leaning battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin. Gravity and static demographics will make them look more right of the center than they really are. It's not like this region by itself is becoming more conservative, it's just becoming less liberal than most other states.

[barfbag]

Even if trends went on forever, which they don't, I still think we could be a half century away from the list given. Trends don't go on forever.

[Indy Texas]

What might happen to Utah if Salt Lake City were to become the next Phoenix or Denver and experience a lot of growth and migration of non-Mormons from other parts of the country? Suppose by the year 2050, Utah has 10 electoral votes, Mormons are still a plurality but no longer a majority, and it has a Hispanic population comparable to that of Arizona or Colorado?

[ElectionsGuy]

What might happen to Utah if Salt Lake City were to become the next Phoenix or Denver and experience a lot of growth and migration of non-Mormons from other parts of the country? Suppose by the year 2050, Utah has 10 electoral votes, Mormons are still a plurality but no longer a majority, and it has a Hispanic population comparable to that of Arizona or Colorado?

It would still probably be republican leaning, but getting close to competitive, like Virginia in the past 10 years.