North Carolina: Democratic Trend Slowing Down?

[ElectionsGuy]

From 2000 to 2012 here are the trends rounded to nearest tenth.

2000: R+13.3% (R+0.1%)
2004: R+10.0% (D+3.3%)
2008: R+6.9%  (D+3.1%)
2012: R+5.9%  (D+1.0%)

I realize this is quite minor, but it could mean a lot in the future. Is this trend really slowing down? If so how long will republicans be able to sustain the state for their party assuming the trend continues? Or... could the trend possibly reverse?

[Spamage]

From 2000 to 2012 here are the trends rounded to nearest tenth.

2000: R+13.3% (R+0.1%)
2004: R+10.0% (D+3.3%)
2008: R+6.9%  (D+3.1%)
2012: R+5.9%  (D+1.0%)

I realize this is quite minor, but it could mean a lot in the future. Is this trend really slowing down? If so how long will republicans be able to sustain the state for their party assuming the trend continues? Or... could the trend possibly reverse?

I feel that 2012 was a pretty good indicator of what we're going to see in NC in the foreseeable future. In 2004 John Edwards, a senator from that state, was on the ticket and 2008 was a very strong Democratic year.

[illegaloperation]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.

[Blue3]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Yeah it's quite crazy. Talk about overreach.

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.

Here's a brief overview, article was written quite recently in the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/opinion/the-decline-of-north-carolina.html?_r=1&

[ElectionsGuy]

I see, a lot of this is actually for the better (My Opinion)

1. Unemployment Benefits: Better

2. Tax Overhaul: Better

3. Racial Justice Repeal: Worse

4. Fracking: Better

5. Medicaid Expansion: Better

6. Voting Laws: Better

7. Gun Laws: Worse

8. Education: Better

9. State Religion: Worse

If you want to know why I feel this way on any of these just ask.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina was run by conservative Democrats. They are equivalent to moderate Republicans in many other states. That's why the state has things like right to work law.

What has happened is that Art Pope (North Carolina's answer to the Koch Brothers) bankrolled Republicans to victory in the state in 2010 and 2012.

Pat McCrory may be the de jure governor of North Carolina, but Art Pope is the de facto governor. McCrory appointed Pope to be Budget Director for North Carolina, the most powerful appointed position in the state.

Pope is now in the driving seat. He has supreme influence over the Republicans in the legislature.


The Republicans in the general assembly are insulated from public opinion because of redistricting (NC governor has no veto power over redistricting). They can get votes in the lower 40s and easily maintain control of both houses of the general assembly.

[illegaloperation]

Gov. Pinocchio doing work: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/pat-mccrory-motorcycle-abortion-bill_n_3588466.html

[ElectionsGuy]

Gov. Pinocchio doing work: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/12/pat-mccrory-motorcycle-abortion-bill_n_3588466.html

"War on Women".

[illegaloperation]

"War on Women".

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks a lot, Pat.

[RedSLC]

North Carolina was run by conservative Democrats. They are equivalent to moderate Republicans in many other states. That's why the state has things like right to work law.

What has happened is that Art Pope (North Carolina's answer to the Koch Brothers) bankrolled Republicans to victory in the state in 2010 and 2012.

Pat McCrory may be the de facto governor of North Carolina, but Art Pope is the de jure governor. McCrory appointed Pope to be Budget Director for North Carolina, the most powerful appointed position in the state.

Pope is now in the driving seat. He has supreme influence over the Republicans in the legislature.


The Republicans in the general assembly are insulated from public opinion because of redistricting (NC governor has no veto power over redistricting). They can get votes in the lower 40s and easily maintain control of both houses of the general assembly.

You mixed up "de jure" and "de facto". "De jure" means "concerning law", while "de facto" means "concerning fact".

[Miles]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up Lean D. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.

[hopper]

I was actually to the guy that relieves me at night at work about the current state of the GOP. I got to talking  about North Carolina. I said to him the South is pretty conservative on Social Issues but I did say to him North Carolina is moving to the center economically.

See what I don't get is McCory is a moderate at heart. I mean the guy was "The Mayor of Charlotte" for how long?. If you are a Republican running for the Mayor of Charlotte you better be moderate on economic issues anyway. I think McCory just saw the Tea Party come in and he had move right really fast sort of like Romney saw Santorum close on in him in 2012 and Romney felt he had to move to the right on social issues or more right than he wanted to.

McCory is the Southeastern version of Romney now which I don't like to see with all the flip-flopping. Of course Obama has flip-flopped many times but the mainstream media doesn't care. That's another story for another board.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.

That is only because the State House Speaker is the most likely GOP Candidate at this point. Obviously, you pick the guy who runs the joint, then he will have to defend his actions instead of putting the attention on Hagan. Hence why I want someone else.

North Carolina was run by conservative Democrats. They are equivalent to moderate Republicans in many other states. That's why the state has things like right to work law.

They were just as in bed with the teacher's unions, the trial lawyers and the other typical Democratic interest groups. It is just that they had to keep up their numbers with rural whites so you got people like John Edwards and Mike Easley as the disingenuous face of a corrupt and at heart liberal party that was praying every day for a demographic shift to releive them of needing all those "gun toting hicks", so they could then be who they really are. You have to remember both Charlotte and Raleigh had Republican mayors in the 1990's, Wake County was a Republican county as recently as 2004 and Mecklenburg was as recently as the 1990's as well, so it was rural populism or death for the Democrats.

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Yeah it's quite crazy. Talk about overreach.

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

Ha, you mean what their doing at the state level? I haven't been following it much, but what from I hear is that they're actually doing pretty ridiculous things that could have an affect on the 2014 Senate seat which as of now is considered a Toss-Up. I'll check the other thread to see what's actually going on.

Here's a brief overview, article was written quite recently in the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/10/opinion/the-decline-of-north-carolina.html?_r=1&

As I said in another thread nobody felt the benefits of this "alleged progressive paradise". Education was "okay" as long as you were going to NC State, Duke, UNC or WFU (Sorry Duke ), at least that was my experience as one of those lucky SOBs (though I haven't exactly cashed in the second half of that statement yet). The rest got crapped on year after year. DOT was a mess, the tax code drove business away and their corrupt and bungled incentives package sent good money down the drain. Meanwhile our nightly news was constantly graced with a string of scandals from Democratic politicians going all the way back to 2004.

There is no priceless porcelain statue that we all adore here in NC that McCrory, Tillis and Berger took a sledge hammer too. What is destroying NC's reputation is the partisan hackjobs in these papers trying to exaggerate the wonders of the state before to make some case for a "decline". It is hard to go down further than hell hole.

The legislature has made a lot of mistakes. They haven't been in a power for a long time here and that is to be expected. They also have a lot of loose canons who don't really don't much about governing but love to get attention for themselves at the expense of the party. It also doesn't help that we have a war between the the leaders of each chamber as they have dragged out the tax code reform and budget negotiations, and not to mention this abortion football, as a means to position themselves against the others in the GOP Senate primary.

I didn't like them abrubtly cutting off UI, but I also object to getting it all at the expense of business and thus continuing the same approach to business taxation that helped to ruin the state's economy. I don't like that they put us in a district with Wilmington or that they screwed over Heath Shuler the way they did.

[Blue3]

I see, a lot of this is actually for the better (My Opinion)

1. Unemployment Benefits: Better

2. Tax Overhaul: Better

3. Racial Justice Repeal: Worse

4. Fracking: Better

5. Medicaid Expansion: Better

6. Voting Laws: Better

7. Gun Laws: Worse

8. Education: Better

9. State Religion: Worse

If you want to know why I feel this way on any of these just ask.

How is it "better" that they are:


*slashing unemployment benefits
"ending federal unemployment benefits for 70,000 residents. Another 100,000 will lose their checks in a few months. Those still receiving benefits will find that they have been cut by a third, to a maximum of $350 weekly from $535, and the length of time they can receive benefits has been slashed from 26 weeks to as few as 12 weeks. "

*cutting education
"cutting back sharply on spending for public schools. Though North Carolina has been growing rapidly, it is spending less on schools now than it did in 2007, ranking 46th in the nation in per-capita education dollars. Teacher pay is falling, 10,000 prekindergarten slots are scheduled to be removed, and even services to disabled children are being chopped.
“We are losing ground,” Superintendent June Atkinson said recently, warning of a teacher exodus after lawmakers proposed ending extra pay for teachers with master’s degrees, cutting teacher assistants and removing limits on class sizes. "

*not expanding Medicaid

*cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else

*cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting

*ending a tax deduction for dependents if students vote at college instead of their hometowns

[HansOslo]

It will very likely speed up now that the Republicans are about to blow up the state.

That is assuming the politics in the state affects the Presidential Election. And I am not sure there is a connection there. Take for example California. The state is run by the Democrats, and they aren’t doing that well. But that doesn’t mean that California will start voting for Republican presidential candidates again.

[Blue3]

California is doing great since they sacked their joke GOP Governor, and got a stronger legislative majority.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I find it wonderfull that the NY Times knows what Tax Reform will be passed when no one in Raleigh can work out a deal between the two chambers.

Why should a gov't be influencing the location of where someone votes with a tax deduction in the first place? That sounds corrupt on the surface.

[ElectionsGuy]

I see, a lot of this is actually for the better (My Opinion)

1. Unemployment Benefits: Better

2. Tax Overhaul: Better

3. Racial Justice Repeal: Worse

4. Fracking: Better

5. Medicaid Expansion: Better

6. Voting Laws: Better

7. Gun Laws: Worse

8. Education: Better

9. State Religion: Worse

If you want to know why I feel this way on any of these just ask.

How is it "better" that they are:


*slashing unemployment benefits
"ending federal unemployment benefits for 70,000 residents. Another 100,000 will lose their checks in a few months. Those still receiving benefits will find that they have been cut by a third, to a maximum of $350 weekly from $535, and the length of time they can receive benefits has been slashed from 26 weeks to as few as 12 weeks. "

*cutting education
"cutting back sharply on spending for public schools. Though North Carolina has been growing rapidly, it is spending less on schools now than it did in 2007, ranking 46th in the nation in per-capita education dollars. Teacher pay is falling, 10,000 prekindergarten slots are scheduled to be removed, and even services to disabled children are being chopped.
“We are losing ground,” Superintendent June Atkinson said recently, warning of a teacher exodus after lawmakers proposed ending extra pay for teachers with master’s degrees, cutting teacher assistants and removing limits on class sizes. "

*not expanding Medicaid

*cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else

*cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting

*ending a tax deduction for dependents if students vote at college instead of their hometowns

Slashing Unemployment Benefits: This should motivate you to get a job. The only people that should be receiving benefits are the people looking for jobs.

Cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else: I though it was a flat cut for everyone, a cut just for the rich is completely unfair and I disagree with it.

Cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting: I never read about this, but this sounds stupid, however raising voter ID laws reduces fraud which is what I agree with.

Not expanding Medicaid: Only should be used for poor people who really need it. There should be no "fakers" out there reaching out to Medicaid when they don't need it, so I think this is for the better and worse.

Education: Expanding the voucher system lets parents choose the kind of school they want.

Ending Tax Deduction: Disagree

[illegaloperation]

Slashing Unemployment Benefits: This should motivate you to get a job. The only people that should be receiving benefits are the people looking for jobs.

Cutting income taxes for rich while raising sales taxes on everyone else: I though it was a flat cut for everyone, a cut just for the rich is completely unfair and I disagree with it.

Cutting back on early voting and Sunday voting: I never read about this, but this sounds stupid, however raising voter ID laws reduces fraud which is what I agree with.

Not expanding Medicaid: Only should be used for poor people who really need it. There should be no "fakers" out there reaching out to Medicaid when they don't need it, so I think this is for the better and worse.

Education: Expanding the voucher system lets parents choose the kind of school they want.

Ending Tax Deduction: Disagree

People want jobs. A lot of they can't get jobs and that's why they are unemployed.

Ditto about the taxes.

Voter frauds happen with absentee ballots: this Voter ID does nothing to prevent that.  The answer to reducing voter fraud is to eliminated absentee ballot (except for armed service members and other overseas agencies).

Eliminating early voting, eliminating Sunday voting, eliminating same day voting registration and eliminating child taxes credit from voting from college does NOT have anything to do with voter fraud either.

Teachers should be given a paid raise not a paid cut. South Carolina paid teachers more than do North Carolina.

[Blue3]

Slashing Unemployment Benefits: This should motivate you to get a job. The only people that should be receiving benefits are the people looking for jobs.

To qualify for unemployment benefits, you have to prove that you're applying to so many jobs a month. I think it's 30-50 job applications required a month to qualify for unemployment benefits.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina was run by conservative Democrats. They are equivalent to moderate Republicans in many other states. That's why the state has things like right to work law.

What has happened is that Art Pope (North Carolina's answer to the Koch Brothers) bankrolled Republicans to victory in the state in 2010 and 2012.

Pat McCrory may be the de facto governor of North Carolina, but Art Pope is the de jure governor. McCrory appointed Pope to be Budget Director for North Carolina, the most powerful appointed position in the state.

Pope is now in the driving seat. He has supreme influence over the Republicans in the legislature.


The Republicans in the general assembly are insulated from public opinion because of redistricting (NC governor has no veto power over redistricting). They can get votes in the lower 40s and easily maintain control of both houses of the general assembly.

You mixed up "de jure" and "de facto". "De jure" means "concerning law", while "de facto" means "concerning fact".

fixed

[barfbag]

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

[illegaloperation]

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

North Carolina is moving slower to the left because of the recession. The pace will probably pickup again.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that it will move back because Obama is not on the ticket.

Obama may have performed well among the African Americans, but he performed poorly among Southern whites. A different Democratic candidate can improve the margin of Southern whites.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

North Carolina is moving slower to the left because of the recession. The pace will probably pickup again.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that it will move back because Obama is not on the ticket.

Obama may have performed well among the African Americans, but he performed poorly among Southern whites. A different Democratic candidate can improve the margin of Southern whites.

That's a great point, but Bush didn't appear to do that much worse than Romney did and he actually did better than Romney with whites in NC. Really the turnout numbers aren't stressed enough. The reason southern states trended D is because of increased black turnout, even though Whites went slightly more republican. Also let's not forget that white turnout was not fantastic this election cycle so we'll see where turnout is at.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/black-voter-turnout-2012-election_n_3173673.html

Also, how could a recession effect state trends? Is NC in a recession?