Luxembourg 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PM for Life Jean-Claude Juncker has resigned and called snap elections after a nasty spying scandal.

[Franknburger]

Unbelievable! Juncker was an institution. I expected him to last longer than Sepp Blatter

[MaxQue]

Unbelievable! Juncker was an institution. I expected him to last longer than Sepp Blatter

Well, he only resigned as the PM to cause new elections, he will still seek releection.

[DC Al Fine]

What are the major parties?

[Tender Branson]

What are the major parties?

2 Conservative Parties: Juncker's People's Party (pro-EU) and another one (euro-sceptic, more socially conservatice)

1 Liberal Party: tends to be center-right

1 Socialist party

1 Green Party

1 smaller Left Party and 1 smaller Communist Party

[Zanas]

Unbelievable! Juncker was an institution. I expected him to last longer than Sepp Blatter

Well, he only resigned as the PM to cause new elections, he will still seek releection.

Don't worry, there is no way in hell he doesn't win this election too. Except if he didn't run of course.

[FredLindq]

Parties and results in the last election (2009)
Christian Social People's Party (CSV) 38.0 % 26 seats, christdem., CR
 Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LASP) 21.5 % 13 seats, soc.dem.,CL
 Democratic Party (DP) 15.0 % 9 seats, liberal, CR
 The Greens (DG) 11.7 % 7 seats, Green, CL
 Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) 8.1 % 4 seats, cons. EU-skeptic, R
 The Left (DL) 3.3 % 1 seat, dem. socialist, left
 Communist Party (KPL) 1.4 % 0 seats, communist, far left
 Citizens' List  (B) 0.8 % 0 seats, new party, unkown

Primeminister: Jean-Claude Juncker (CSV) since 20 January 1995
Government: CSV and LSAP since 2009

Former coalitions: 1995-1999 CSV and LSAP, 1999-2004 CSV and DP, and from 2004- CSV and LSAP

[Famous Mortimer]

I have always heard that Social Democrats have never won election in LUX because everyone there is already pretty rich so there's no need.

Truth to that?

[FredLindq]

They have never had a priminister from LSAP. The PM has always been from CSV except from 1974-1979 when DP had the priministership i coalition with LSAP. LSAP has been the junior party in coalition with CSV. Somtimes the CSV has guverned with DP.

[ZuWo]

Jean-Claude Juncker: Ech géif gär weiderregéieren

Here's a link to a speech Juncker delivered at his party's convention today - Luxembourgish is a fascinating language, or rather, dialect of German. Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

[Vosem]

Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

Isn't that true of any language, though?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have always heard that Social Democrats have never won election in LUX because everyone there is already pretty rich so there's no need.

Truth to that?

No; southern Luxembourg is very industrial (steel) and back when that was even more so, the LSAP polled the most votes on a couple of occasions (1951, 1964, 1974) though never won more seats than the CSV. Think it may have been a straightforward malapportionment issue, though don't know for sure. There was at the time also a comparatively strong (best result was 17% in 1951 and they polled double digits as recently as 1974) Communist party, which was also strongest in the south of the country.

[Franknburger]

Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

Isn't that true of any language, though?

Not quite. In fact, for me as a North German it is easier to understand Dutch than Letzeburgisch (or Schwizerdütsch, for that matter). For ZuWo, as a Swiss, it is obviously the other way round. The differences between German dialects, especially the North German (Low Saxon) and the Southwestern (Allemannic) ones are quite strong, with High German serving as a bridge.

[Vosem]

Quite hard to understand if you're not familiar with it or a similar dialect of German!

Isn't that true of any language, though?

Not quite. In fact, for me as a North German it is easier to understand Dutch than Letzeburgisch (or Schwizerdütsch, for that matter). For ZuWo, as a Swiss, it is obviously the other way round. The differences between German dialects, especially the North German (Low Saxon) and the Southwestern (Allemannic) ones are quite strong, with High German serving as a bridge.

It was a joke about how many German dialects there are -- the punchline being that you can comprehend any language in the world if you're just familiar with the corresponding German dialect

[Franknburger]

I have always heard that Social Democrats have never won election in LUX because everyone there is already pretty rich so there's no need.

Truth to that?

No; southern Luxembourg is very industrial (steel) and back when that was even more so, the LSAP polled the most votes on a couple of occasions (1951, 1964, 1974) though never won more seats than the CSV. Think it may have been a straightforward malapportionment issue, though don't know for sure. There was at the time also a comparatively strong (best result was 17% in 1951 and they polled double digits as recently as 1974) Communist party, which was also strongest in the south of the country.

Anybody having maps of the 2009 election? The best I could find on the internet was this page which links to the results per community (scroll down to bottom of page), but does not provide overview maps.

In general, the industrialised south appears to lean LSAP, with a few Communist strongholds (e.g. Rumelange 9.3%, Esch s/Alzette 7.3%). 
Linguistic aspects don't appear to play much of a role. Below, I compare the votes of those communities that, according to the 2011 census, rank first nationally in terms of a specific language spoken at home: Luxemburgisch (Consthum 83.9%, north central),  German (Mertert 9.1%,-east), French (Rambrouch 24.2%, west), Portuguese (LaRochette 43.4%, centre):

CSV:     40.8 / 37.3 / 42.8  / 36.9
LSAP:    19.1 / 28.5 / 12.1 / 18.2
DP:       16.4 / 12.1/  17.1 / 19.3
Green:    6.3/  11.1/  10.3 / 14.5
ADR:     15.3/   8.5/  13.6 /   5.4
Left:       0.5/   2.0/    2.4 /   3.6
KPL:       0.9/   0.6/    1.2 /   2.5
Oth.;      0.8/   --  /    0.7 /   ---

There appears, however, to be some geographical split for smaller parties, with the Greens being stronger in the East, and in communities with substantial EU immigrant population (Portuguese, Italians), ADR strength in the North-West, and DP in rural areas with low share of EU immigrants.

[Franknburger]

Alright, found maps on the leading parties per community on Wikipedia. Orange is CSV (Juncker), red is LSAP, blue the DP (euro-sceptic conservative)
2009 2004

The three LSAP communities in the South are Rumelange, Dudelange and Kayl. The region was a traditional centre of iron-ore mining and processing. While the mines have been closed, some metal-processing is continuing. Together, the three towns have some 30,000 inhabitants.
In 2005, the LSAP also took neighbouring Schifflange (pop. 8.500). It is furthermore comparatively strong in the district capital of Esch s/Alzette (pop.31.000, 2nd largest in Luxembourg, 28.2 % LSAP in 2009) and the city of Differdange (pop. 22,500, 3rd largest), which it took in 2004 but lost to the CSV in 2009.
The red community up north is Wiltz, county capital with some 5,000 inhabitants, and a strong labour union and anti-Nazi resistance history.

The two DP communities from 2004 are Preizerdaul (pop.1,500, DP 28.1%) and Schieren (pop. 1,700, DP 35.6%). Schieren is a suburb of Ettelbruck (largest town in the North). The only remarkable thing Wikipedia has to report about Preizerdaul is that they changed their official name from German to Luxemburgish (in 2001).

[FredLindq]

Howver DP is centre-right liberal pro EU.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yep. Alternative Democratic Reform (formerly the Pensioners) are the anti-EU conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...though in reality are mostly a pensioners lobby.

[Famous Mortimer]

Right. They used to be the Action Committee for Democracy and Pensions Justice. I wonder if changing their name might actually hurt them in the long run though. It might alienate some pensioners and it might also deny them some protest votes they might have otherwise gotten a la the Dutch and Israeli pensioners.

Also, the believe The Left used to have a ridiculously long name too, something like the Democratic Socialist and Post-Marxist Left or some such? I can't find confirmation on that though.

[Franknburger]

Alright, since nobody else seems to have maps, I decided to make some myself.

First, as orientation, a map of registered voters for the 2009 parliamentary election by community.



Total registered voters were around 225,000. Luxemburg city accounts for more then one-tenth of then (26,600). Nearly another 10% live in the city's suburbs.  Of the four electoral districts, the South comprises nearly 90,000 voters (40% of total), most of which live in a few cities close to the French border.  So these are the places where elections are decided.

The rest of the country is a lot of communities with few voters (in many cases less than 1,000).

[Franknburger]

And here are maps of the six largest parties.



The CSV's strength is that they are getting reasonable vote shares everywhere. They only passed 50% in a few, small communities. However, they also fell below 30% in only two communities. Even in the 'red' south. they regularly came in between thirty and forty  per cent.

The LSAP is relatively strong (25-40%) in the south, and also in a few larger towns up north. However, in 2009 they were held back by poor results in Luxemburg city and its suburbs.

The DA is quite strong in the north, south-east and in and around Luxemburg City. However, as they performed poorly in the densely populated, industrial south-west, they only finished third in 2009 at slightly below 15%.

The Green map is surprisingly balanced. They gained 13% in Luxemburg city, which is not bad, but only 1.3% above their national share. They also reached above 10% across most of the South. Their strongholds are the exurbs - small communities within commuting distance to Luxemburg City- where they regularly got more than 15%, in some places even almost 30%.

ADR is very much a rural and northern party, with neither much traction in the South nor in and around Luxemburg city. Obviously, anti-European rhetoric is not too popular in a city that is hosting a number of EU institutions (Parliament, Court, European Investment Bank).

Last but not least - the Left. Also a surprisingly balanced map. Few votes in several rural areas, but above 5% in a handful of other, equally rural communities, plus 7.3% in Esch s/Alzette, Luxembourg's second largest city. Whoever votes for them - they are not a classical industrial workers' party ...

[Franknburger]

Finally, a map of the leading party when CSV is excluded (it's too orange otherwise..)  The colours reflect percentages gained in 2009, not margins. In quite a number of communities, it was a three or four-party race for place two, with only decimals deciding on the ranking.



Visualises the LSAP's problems.

[Zanas]

You sir win the Internet. I wouldn't like to abuse, but if you have the figures could you also make the Communists' one ? It would be interesting to see how it compares to dei Lénk's one.

Also, it should be noted that to this day, most of the cantons and communes just across the border from Esch or Dudelange are held by the PCF. So it's also a regional thing, due to the iron.

[Franknburger]

You sir win the Internet. I wouldn't like to abuse, but if you have the figures could you also make the Communists' one ? It would be interesting to see how it compares to dei Lénk's one.

Also, it should be noted that to this day, most of the cantons and communes just across the border from Esch or Dudelange are held by the PCF. So it's also a regional thing, due to the iron.

Avec plaisir ..

.. and also a good occasion to correct my misinformation in a previous post. While the Communists are strongest in the South, they nowhere made it over 5% in the parliamentary elections. [I erroneously reported 2011 local election results, when the KP in fact came out  strongly in some of the southern towns, however, competing only with CSV and LSAP].



Overall this is another of these balanced Luxembourg maps. There is a handful communists in every village, and a few more in the mining & metal towns. I would suspect an average KP voter age above 70, quite some of which having moved away from the industry towns to the countryside on their old age ..

Note that I had to adjust the colouring scheme to 1 % increases in order to obtain a bit more than a virtually blank map with 3-4 pink spots. Overall KP vote share was 1.5%.