Which state will be the decisive state for the control of the US senate?

[windjammer]

Montana for me (Daines probably in, Schweitzer too), if the republicans win this seat, they would probably win LA, AR, AK, SD and WV too!
It could have been North Carolina or Iowa, but the NRSC has some problems finding a good candidate. Tillis=loooool, a deeply unpopular legislature and they choose the speaker of the house. And for Iowa, the major Pubs are out.
I think Michigan will be a tight race, the former secretary of state seems to be competitive, but it's Michigan, in a neutral year, narrow advantage for the democrats.

[RogueBeaver]

Montana, now that Daines seems likely to run. NC and IA have candidate problems, MI a PVI problem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Louisiana, since a runoff is available for the Dems if they lose five seats. Montana as well.

[Miles]

MT without Schweitzer would be next in line.

[California8429]

Montana will show the swing, LA will be necessary to win the Senate for the GOP

[morgieb]

Montana. Might be North Carolina sooner rather than later though.

I'd put the likelihood of Republicans winning from most likely to least likely out of the Democratic held marginals:

1. South Dakota
2. West Virginia
3. Arkansas
----------------------------
4. Louisiana
5. Alaska
----------------------------
6. Montana
7. North Carolina
----------------------------
8. Michigan
9. Iowa

And so on.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say Alaska, because of the fact that a popular conservative democratic incumbent will face off in a deeply red state, if republicans don't get this one, they won't get the senate most likely. I also think Montana will be very interesting, but we still have to see who the candidates are. Until primary season it's pretty much all wait and speculation.

[JerryArkansas]

Here are the seats that are most likely to flip

South Dakota
West Virginia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska
Montana
KY*
North Carolina
Ga**

*Will be Higher if Grimes makes the race more statewide and not national

**Will be Higher if Reps nominate a right wing nut and Dems Nominate a good candidate.

[bballrox4717]

NC. I don't think it gets that far though. Landrieu and Begich are incumbents in good position to win reelection, and Grimes running a competitive race against the minority leader is an excellent diversion in the news cycle to keep attention away from them.

Here are the seats that are most likely to flip

South Dakota
West Virginia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska
Montana
KY*
North Carolina
Ga**

*Will be Higher if Grimes makes the race more statewide and not national

**Will be Higher if Reps nominate a right wing nut and Dems Nominate a good candidate.

This is a good list, even though Schweitzer is a much better candidate than Hagan.

[free my dawg]

It sure as hell isn't MT anymore.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is my Updated Version of this.

South Dakota
West Virginia
Montana
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska
KY*
North Carolina
Ga**

*Will be Higher if Grimes makes the race more statewide and not national

**Will be Higher if Reps nominate a right wing nut and Dems Nominate a good candidate.

[illegaloperation]

(1 free seat for Democrats)
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alaska
North Carolina

[windjammer]

With Schweitzer out, I would say Alaska.

[RogueBeaver]

With Schweitzer out, I would say Alaska.

Or Louisiana, which will be the toughest of them all.

[hurricanehink]

With Schweitzer out, I would say Alaska.

Or Louisiana, which will be the toughest of them all.

Especially with her facing a fairly competent in Bill Cassidy. NC and AK don't quite have the challengers (yet, AK might get Treadwell).

[greenforest32]

I voted Montana in the poll originally but after today's announcement by Schweitzer, I'd change my vote to Louisiana.

Would Joe Manchin switch parties if there was a 50-50 Senate after the 2014 elections?

[windjammer]

I voted Montana in the poll originally but after today's announcement by Schweitzer, I'd change my vote to Louisiana.

Would Joe Manchin would switch parties if there was a 50-50 Senate after the 2014 elections?

Impossible, Joe Manchin and Mitch Mcconnell hate each other.

Yes, maybe Louisiana. Honestly, Landrieu is a bit a survivor, but it will be tight!

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Without Schweitzer in, Louisiana.

The current senate balance sits at 52-46-2, or 54-46.

New Jersey is a given flip. That pushes it back to 55-45.

West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana are now Lean R, or at least Tilt R. Assuming they flip, this pushes it to 52-48. Republican recruitment in North Carolina and Iowa is failing, and Michigan is too Democratic to vote R at this point. That leaves Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana. I ended up voting Louisiana, as whether or not Landrieu holds on will basically be a slight indicator as to whether Begich and Pryor hold on as well.

[morgieb]

Probably a toss-up between Alaska and Louisiana now. Senate recruitment for the Democrats hasn't been great this year.

[Person Man]

Without Schweitzer in, Louisiana.

The current senate balance sits at 52-46-2, or 54-46.

New Jersey is a given flip. That pushes it back to 55-45.

West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana are now Lean R, or at least Tilt R. Assuming they flip, this pushes it to 52-48. Republican recruitment in North Carolina and Iowa is failing, and Michigan is too Democratic to vote R at this point. That leaves Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana. I ended up voting Louisiana, as whether or not Landrieu holds on will basically be a slight indicator as to whether Begich and Pryor hold on as well.

This. Republicans will do well this year, but there will have to be a landslide next year, between the size of 2006 and 2010 for them to take back the Senate. Luckily, they only have to target seats that should already be theirs but the economy's stable and Republicans have been very unreasonable.

[illegaloperation]

Who is in better shape for reelection? Pryor or Landrieu?

[RogueBeaver]

Who is in better shape for reelection? Pryor or Landrieu?

Landrieu, no contest. Pryor's in extremis and doesn't really seem to care.

[illegaloperation]

Who is in better shape for reelection? Pryor or Landrieu?

Landrieu, no contest. Pryor's in extremis and doesn't really seem to care.

That's what I thought. Landrieu is in good grace for what she has done over the years.

[RedSLC]

Who is in better shape for reelection? Pryor or Landrieu?

Landrieu, easily. Unlike Pryor, she's someone who actually can manage to attract centrist and center-right voters without alienating liberals.

[publicunofficial]

Iowa and Michigan are Likely D at the moment, North Carolina is Lean D and will remain so as long as Tillis/Cain are the only challengers.


South Dakota is Likely R, West Virginia and Montana are Lean R. Georgia will be Lean R if Broun or Gingrey wins the nomination, Kentucky will be Lean R if Grimes is competent.


That leaves Louisiana, Alaska, and Arkansas. Out of those, I think Begich has the best chance to win, and Pryor the most likely casualty.