Vermont's Northeast Kingdom (Caledonia, Essex, Orleans)

[soniquemd21921]

What has happened in the past 6-7 years in what had been the state's last remaining GOP redoubt? Bush carried it in 2000 and narrowly lost it in 2004 (Essex was the only county in the entire state Bush carried), but then it swung hard to Obama in 2008: McCain's percentage point was 10-13 points below what Bush's 2004 margins had been. And Romney only ran slightly better than McCain here (A similar trend also occurred in neighboring Grafton and Coos County, New Hampshire, where McCain ran 8 points below Bush).

Local Republican candidates still run strongly: Brian Dubie swept all three counties in 2010 and Randy Brock carried all three counties as well. I had suspected anti-Bush sentiment was what caused the hard Obama swing in this region in 2008, but why did Romney only run slightly better in all three counties and not rebound by 7-8 points?

[Flake]

I feel like they trust the republicans there, that they are much more moderate than the national republican party, and they trust the locals republicans more than the national ones and trust the national democrats over the more liberal vermont ones.

[TDAS04]

Remember, Clinton won the area.  Gore may have lost it because Nader did so well in Vermont, and also because Gore did so poorly in rural America overall (in part because of the gun issue).  In the next three elections, all of Vermont trended Democratic because of war and because the national Republicans became increasingly dominated by the religious right.  Also, Obama seems to be an exceptionally good fit for the state. 

[RedSLC]

Remember, Clinton won the area.  Gore may have lost it because Nader did so well in Vermont, and also because Gore did so poorly in rural America overall (in part because of the gun issue).  In the next three elections, all of Vermont trended Democratic because of war and because the national Republicans became increasingly dominated by the religious right.  Also, Obama seems to be an exceptionally good fit for the state. 

This.

I think the main force driving the region's leftward trend is social issues, sort of like what's happened to most of rural america, only with the parties switched. It may also be that more people from out of state, who tend to be center-left, have moved to that region (I remember someone posting that back in 2000, the "Take Back Vermont" movement, which was sparked by then-Governor Howard Dean's push to create civil unions for gay couples, was strongest in this region), so that may be part of the reason why it's so recent.

And as mentioned, at the state level, the region in still a republican stronghold. The legislature delegations for this region in both houses are overwhelmingly republican.

As a side note, both of the towns in Vermont that Romney won were in this region.

[soniquemd21921]

The 'flatlander' effect may have been starting in other areas of the state as early as the early 70's: there were at least seven towns that Nixon won in 1968 that McGovern won in 1972 (Calais, Marlboro, Norwich, Plainfield, Putney, Warren). And Nixon got more than 60% of the vote in Calais, Plainfield and Warren in 1968! 28 years later, these were some of Nader's top towns in the state.

Marlboro and Plainfield can be explained because of students at ultra-liberal Marlboro and Goddard (Plainfield) voting for the first time, but what about those other towns that flipped? I'm guessing Norwich being directly across the river from Hanover would explain the shift, similar to Leverett, Pelham and Shutesbury.