North Carolina and Republicans' push to the extreme right

[illegaloperation]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

[Miles]

Its probably good. My family lives in Charlotte; my mom, a Republican, voted for McCrory in 2008 and 2012 and she now regrets it.

[BaldEagle1991]

It probably won't change anything.

But I do agree on how far right they've been becoming. I remember not too long ago they tried to push Evangelical Protestantism as the "state religion". That was a bad sign.

[illegaloperation]

Its probably good. My family lives in Charlotte; my mom, a Republican, voted for McCrory in 2008 and 2012 and she now regrets it.

A lot of Democrats and moderate Republicans are regretting voting for McCrory.

I hope that he will get thrown out in 2016.

Hopefully, this mobilizes the Democrats that are less incline to vote.

[illegaloperation]

It probably won't change anything.

But I do agree on how far right they've been becoming. I remember not too long ago they tried to push Evangelical Protestantism as the "state religion". That was a bad sign.

All of this while demographic changes are pushing the state to the left.

[JRP1994]

North Carolina is moving to the political center, trailing Virginia by about 8 years:


North Carolina                    Virginia

2000: R+8                            2000: R+5

2004: R+5                            2004: R+3

2008: R+4                            2008: R+1

2012: R+3                            2012: EVEN


In 2016, North Carolina should be around R+1.5 (round to R+2), while Virginia should be marginally leaning D (maybe D+0.5 or so). However, if these measures offend/irritate moderate, independent voters in the Tarheel state, it MIGHT move forward more - maybe R+1 or so.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina is moving to the political center, trailing Virginia by about 8 years:


North Carolina                    Virginia

2000: R+8                            2000: R+5

2004: R+5                            2004: R+3

2008: R+4                            2008: R+1

2012: R+3                            2012: EVEN


In 2016, North Carolina should be around R+1.5 (round to R+2), while Virginia should be marginally leaning D (maybe D+0.5 or so). However, if these measures offend/irritate moderate, independent voters in the Tarheel state, it MIGHT move forward more - maybe R+1 or so.

Yes, I have been saying for a while now that North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Also, North Carolina Republicans there have managed to alienated a lot of moderates, including moderate Republicans.

[barfbag]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

sounds tragic, let me get my violin

[illegaloperation]

sounds tragic, let me get my violin

Oh, it is. What is happening in North Carolina is depressing.

[greenforest32]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

It is interesting how Republicans are being so aggressive in North Carolina compared to a kind of similar situation in a state like Pennsylvania. They don't have a 3/5ths majority in the PA state legislature like they do in NC but they do have a trifecta in PA (a D+1 state) and both states are relatively close to being the deciding state in a presidential election. Then again, Pennsylvania doesn't have any early voting or same-day registration for Republicans to get rid of.

But yeah, this doesn't look like it's going to help Republicans in the state long-term. None of their proposals seem to be that popular from abolishing the state income tax (now they've backtracked to just adopting a flat income tax IIRC), banning Medicaid expansion, all these restrictive voting changes etc.

And the main difference between Virginia and North Carolina is the white vote: both states had electorates that were 70% white in 2012 with Romney winning 68% of whites in North Carolina vs. 61% in Virginia. With the population still growing fast, they'd have to start winning 70%+ of the NC white vote to hold the state in presidential elections. How likely is that, especially with these antics?

[illegaloperation]

And throw anti-abortion law on top of that too: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/07/north-carolinas-anti-sharia-bill-now-also-anti-abortion/66812/

[illegaloperation]

As some of you may be aware, Republicans have taken full control of the North Carolina's state government for the first time in 140 years and have been pushing the state hard right. A lot of these Republicans are now locked in thanks to redistricting and Art Pope's money. Not so moderate Governor McCrory has appointed Art Pope, North Carolina's Budget Director.

As a result, there have been these "Moral Monday" protests.

I am wondering how this will affect how North Carolina vote in the future?

If you weren't aware of what's going on in North Carolina: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/07/how-north-carolina-became-the-wisconsin-of-2013/277007/

It is interesting how Republicans are being so aggressive in North Carolina compared to a kind of similar situation in a state like Pennsylvania. They don't have a 3/5ths majority in the PA state legislature like they do in NC but they do have a trifecta in PA (a D+1 state) and both states are relatively close to being the deciding state in a presidential election. Then again, Pennsylvania doesn't have any early voting or same-day registration for Republicans to get rid of.

But yeah, this doesn't look like it's going to help Republicans in the state long-term. None of their proposals seem to be that popular from abolishing the state income tax (now they've backtracked to just adopting a flat income tax IIRC), banning Medicaid expansion, all these restrictive voting changes etc.

And the main difference between Virginia and North Carolina is the white vote: both states had electorates that were 70% white in 2012 with Romney winning 68% of whites in North Carolina vs. 61% in Virginia. With the population still growing fast, they'd have to start winning 70%+ of the NC white vote to hold the state in presidential elections. How likely is that, especially with these antics?

I don't know how much better Republicans can perform among whites.

There are a lot of white liberals in the Washington D.C. suburb in Virginia and in the Research Triangle in North Carolina.

[barfbag]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

[illegaloperation]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

[illegaloperation]

Good god. There is really no better example of how gerrymandering has screwed over a state than North Carolina. It really says something that the legislature has moved so far to the right that even moderate republicans are getting pissed off.

The worst of these proposals are the voting restrictions. All of them are nothing more than blatant attempts to disenfranchise entire swaths of the state, from minorities to college students, just so they can stay in power. Assholes.

As for McCrory, I'm pretty sure that by now it has become obvious to NC residents that he's just a tool for Art Pope.

In North Carolina, governor has no veto power over redistricting. Even if the Democrat win back the governorship in or before 2020, I am not sure much changes can be expected (at least in the legislature).

I wonder how far the Republican state legislature can lock itself in.

[HansOslo]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

You're not worried at all about the blatant gerrymandering or disenfranchisement attempts? 

Yes, your point is probably correct.  That's exactly why Republicans won't win Virginia in a Presidential election for at least 20 years.  They pushed extreme measures over the past few years just as the state started becoming more moderate and diverse.  I suspect North Carolina will follow a similar pattern.

That is assuming the Democrats nominate someone like Obama, the GOP nominates someone like Romney and the political climate and the political coalitions will remain the same the next 20 years. So your statement is based on a lot of assumptions that are uncertain, at best. If 2016 (or 2020) is a bad year for the Democrats, and the GOP nominates a decent candidate, the Republicans will probably win Virginia.

[illegaloperation]

That is assuming the Democrats nominate someone like Obama, the GOP nominates someone like Romney and the political climate and the political coalitions will remain the same the next 20 years. So your statement is based on a lot of assumptions that are uncertain, at best. If 2016 (or 2020) is a bad year for the Democrats, and the GOP nominates a decent candidate, the Republicans will probably win Virginia.

Both Virginia and North Carolina are moving very fast to the left. In the future, Virginia will become a must win state for Democratic presidents. Republican presidents can win Virginia, but they will already have won the election without it. As for North Carolina, it will be the new Ohio. With North Carolina likely to gain electoral votes and Ohio likely to lose some, the importance of North Carolina cannot be overstated.

[illegaloperation]

With NC GOP eliminated the federal unemployment benefit, I wonder how people feel.

I am sure that there are a lot of unemployed Republican voters out there in North Carolina.

[greenforest32]

Both Virginia and North Carolina are moving very fast to the left. In the future, Virginia will become a must win state for Democratic presidents. Republican presidents can win Virginia, but they will already have won the election without it. As for North Carolina, it will be the new Ohio. With North Carolina likely to gain electoral votes and Ohio likely to lose some, the importance of North Carolina cannot be overstated.

Interesting... Florida is important too. I'm thinking about the often cited future GOP strategy of going through the Midwest and just look at a crazy 2024 map like this:

283D-255R.

It would drop to 267D-271R if Michigan flipped as well but I don't know what the electoral vote distribution among states would look like after 2020. Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, etc would probably lose a few while Texas, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, etc gain some. Could be a wash for the above map. But that makes me think that Republican electoral college-rigging plan (awarding EC votes by congressional district in D-leaning states) would work better for them in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania.

Of course this is all ignoring Georgia and Arizona, which Democrats will most likely do better in 11 years from now.

[illegaloperation]

[HansOslo]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

You're not worried at all about the blatant gerrymandering or disenfranchisement attempts? 

Yes, your point is probably correct.  That's exactly why Republicans won't win Virginia in a Presidential election for at least 20 years.  They pushed extreme measures over the past few years just as the state started becoming more moderate and diverse.  I suspect North Carolina will follow a similar pattern.

That is assuming the Democrats nominate someone like Obama, the GOP nominates someone like Romney and the political climate and the political coalitions will remain the same the next 20 years. So your statement is based on a lot of assumptions that are uncertain, at best. If 2016 (or 2020) is a bad year for the Democrats, and the GOP nominates a decent candidate, the Republicans will probably win Virginia.

Absurd comment.  A generic democrat would have beaten a generic republican in Virginia.  In fact, right before the election there was a lot of talk by right wing pundits about how weak Obama was. 

Your reply was inapposite.  I did not make assumptions, nor did I even discuss Obama/Romney in the post you quoted.  You seem to assume I am basing this off 2012.  OK - well that wasn't a particularly good year for Democrats and Obama still won Virginia.  The fact is that Virginia has been trending Democrat for the past 20 years, regardless of Obama being on the ballot.  Yes, it's possible that if stars align that Republicans will win Virginia.  But in the next few cycles, given the population trends, that would probably mean Republicans are winning handily. 

I posted census projections and articles about the demographic changes in Virginia in another thread.  Basically, by 2016, Northern Virginia, suburban Richmond, and the Virginia Beach area will account for something like 90% of the population growth in the state.  Obama won all three regions.  Northern Virginia will account for over 50% of the statewide population growth, Obama won that region 60/40.  Conversely, some regions of the state are losing population, mostly they are small towns concentrated in the southwestern portion of the state.  Republicans tend to win that region 70/30. 

Clearly Republicans have a long term problem in Virginia that is getting worse every year.

By all means, if things continue the way they are now, the GOP will have a tough time winning Virginia in a neutral political environment. I am not arguing about that. However, political coalitions tend to change. And when a party has been defeated enough time, they usually change course somehow. By the late 1980s the Democrats knew they a lot of voters viewed them as the party of big government, abortion and welfare queens. So they nominated Michael Dukakis (who really wasn’t the “Massachusetts Liberal” as he was portrayed by the Bush campaign. He was a moderate.). Then they nominated Bill Clinton, and the rest is history.

The same thing goes for the Republicans of today. Some sort of change will occur if they lose enough times. And that was the core of my critique of your post, because it looks like you assume that the trends of today will continue indefinitely.  Suburban moderates in Northern Virginia will keep voting for the Democrats, because the Republicans are too extreme on social issues. That is probably the case today, but it might very well not be in 2024.

And that is before we take into account frictions within the Democratic coalition. There might be important issues where suburban liberals are at odds with Africa Americans, or where the interests of the public sector unions clash with those of working class Hispanics. And whenever that happens, the opposing party is usually ready to accommodate the people that are disillusioned by the other party.

American political history is full of false realignments, coalitions that never became permanent and trends that ceased. In 1988 a lot of people believed the GOP had a “lock” on the Electoral College, because of their strength in the Sunbelt states, and that the Democrats had a “lock” on Congress. It took 6 years for that to change. And in the beginning of the 1920s people knew that African Americans would continue voting for the GOP, and that the South would forever be the Solid Democratic South. By 1928 the Republicans were able to win several states in the South, and African Americans became an important part of the Democratic coalition under Roosevelt a few years later. So the GOP might turn into a permanent minority, unable to win places like Virginia and North Carolina (and eventually Georgia and Arizona), but I think that is unlikely. 

[illegaloperation]

Anyway, getting back to the topic about North Carolina.

The growth in North Carolina is driven by growth in the Research Triangle and Charlotte and this is pushing the state to the left.

I would think that the NC GOP would drift to the left to keep winning. Instead, it is pushing hard right.

[barfbag]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

It's not as bad as Democrats think it is or want it to be though. It never is. Human nature makes us biased. Obama being black helped him enormously in North Carolina which makes its trends deceiving. By 2020 we should be able to tell how much he helped the trend or how much he skewed the trend. Right now we're only wishfully thinking. Trends don't go on forever. It's not  like the state will ever actually belong to the Democrats.

[illegaloperation]

The only thing that worries me is whether or not Republicans will aggravate voters in North Carolina to the point it could slip away in a presidential election or force our party to spend more resources there than necessary.

North Carolina is already moving to the left.

What is more interesting is if and by how much faster North Carolina will be moving to the left as a consequence of what the NC GOP is doing.

If the GOP hopes to maintain grip on the state in the future, what is happening now certainly doesn't help.

It's not as bad as Democrats think it is or want it to be though. It never is. Human nature makes us biased. Obama being black helped him enormously in North Carolina which makes its trends deceiving. By 2020 we should be able to tell how much he helped the trend or how much he skewed the trend. Right now we're only wishfully thinking. Trends don't go on forever. It's not  like the state will ever actually belong to the Democrats.

Really? I don't think a lot of Republicans who are unemployed and sees their benefits cut feel the same way.

North Carolina has the 5th highest unemployment rate and trust me, it's not because people there just don't want jobs.

Also, I know that North Carolina is moving to the left because Charlotte and the Research Triangle are the fastest growing areas just like I know that Missouri is moving to the right because Southwestern Missouri is the fast growing area there.

So unless Republicans can start winning urban and secular voters, North Carolina is moving to the left.

Additional note: stealing the water system and regional airport from Asheville and stealing the international airport from Charlotte can already mobilize a lot of voters.

[Flake]

What happened in Asheville and Charlotte?