TX 2014: Perry almost certainly not running; announcing within a week

[Indy Texas]

Two events have happened that suggest Rick Perry is not going to seek a fourth term:

1. Greg Abbott has released a glossy puff campaign video, suggesting he is going to run for governor. (http://www.texastribune.org/2013/06/24/abbott-releases-bio-video-on-perseverance/)

2. Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman is running for Attorney General - Abbott's current job, with a public announcement forthcoming.

Perry has already claimed that Abbott wouldn't run against him. If Abbott's running, Perry probably isn't. And in the musical chairs world of Texas Republican politics, if Smitherman is running for AG, Abbott is moving up the ladder. He's too formidable to be challenged as an incumbent (Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, conversely, doesn't scare anyone; hence the increasingly crowded LiteGuv primary field).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His 2012 prez exposed his deepest flaw in campaigning, debates. He almost certainly would had to face up to it again.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

His 2012 prez exposed his deepest flaw in campaigning, debates. He almost certainly would had to face up to it again.

I still think its a little unfair with the attacks on his debating. The medicine that his Doctor gave him made him nearly brain-dead during the debates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was the one that thought people was gonna remember dubya, and his charm not for his policies. And failed. Dubya stumbled over his words but not gaffe prone.

[tmthforu94]

Darn

[Lambsbread]

Unfortunately I'm going to have to live in Texas under Governor Abbott

[minionofmidas]

His 2012 prez exposed his deepest flaw in campaigning, debates. He almost certainly would had to face up to it again.

I still think its a little unfair with the attacks on his debating. The medicine that his Doctor gave him made him nearly brain-dead during the debates.

Not to mention his entire political career?

[Indy Texas]

Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) and the other Senate Dems succeeded in killing off the restrictive abortion bill that was passed by the House yesterday. Points of order delayed the bill past the midnight deadline that closed out the special session, preventing an official vote from taking place. Perry could call another special session, but the Senate Democrats could theoretically all skip town leaving the chamber without the quorum necessary for any legislation to be considered (the same tactic House Democrats used back in 2003 to delay the Republicans' redistricting bill).

I don't think Perry is going to try to force this issue. The bill's failure has already left him with egg on his face. David Dewhurst has shown how much of an empty suit he is and if his primary opponents have half a brain, they will hammer him to death over this. Perry will be announcing his future political plans within days. Announcing a bid for reelection in the wake of this seems implausible.

The Republicans failed last night because they have spent the past several election cycles filling their ranks with people who didn't know how to govern or legislate before they came to Austin, didn't want to learn how when they got there, and still don't know how. They attempt to take a hatchet to whatever they oppose, while the Democrats use arcane rules and procedures like surgical instruments inflicting just enough damage to thwart whatever is about to take place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Motomeyer comment clearly hurt him the most. Can't remember judges names not fit to appoint them.

[windjammer]

Impossible for a dem to win?

[Old Man Svensson]

Impossible for a dem to win?

Not in the least. Run Davis against Abbott and watch the sparks fly.

[Lambsbread]

Impossible for a dem to win?

Not in the least. Run Davis against Abbott and watch the sparks fly.

I would give so much to have Wendy Davis be Governor

[badgate]

I hope a reliable firm like PPP does some new polling in a week or so, I'd be interested to see where things stand. Though I think Davis would be a really long shot in '14, it's worth noting that Tuesday morning she had 1,200 Twitter followers. It's now over 80k. If they screw her district to where she can't win reelection, she should go for Governor anyway.

[CatoMinor]

This is not exactly a winning issue to run for Governor of Texas on.

[CatoMinor]

Also, round 2 is set for July:

http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/18704/

[bballrox4717]

This is not exactly a winning issue to run for Governor of Texas on.

This. It may make her the only candidate besides the Castros who is able to keep up with Abbott and Perry's war chest, but being the most well known pro choice woman will not win Davis the Texas governor's seat.

[free my dawg]

Impossible for a dem to win?

Not in the least. Run Davis against Abbott and watch the sparks fly.

That would be suicide.

[Reginald]

Yeah, Abbott would crush her in that hypothetical race. Though if she happens to find herself having no other options... let's just say it'd be nice to not have yet another Paul Sadler representing the TX Dems statewide.

If Davis wants to remain an office-holder in Texas, I really don't see what feasible options she has other than hoping that her district isn't chopped up. And even before she got this national attention this week, that race would have been a tough one; as it stands her district has a lot of super-R areas and she barely won reelection last year. The GOP will assuredly be chomping at the bit.

[Indy Texas]

I hope a reliable firm like PPP does some new polling in a week or so, I'd be interested to see where things stand. Though I think Davis would be a really long shot in '14, it's worth noting that Tuesday morning she had 1,200 Twitter followers. It's now over 80k. If they screw her district to where she can't win reelection, she should go for Governor anyway.

How many of those 80k Twitter followers actually live in Texas? I'm with Wendy on this issue, but I don't take kindly to the whole country acting like what my state does is their business. She's a smart woman and a solid legislator but getting this much hype from this isn't sustainable in the long-term. Imagine if a Republican state lawmaker in Massachusetts successfully filibustered a bill loosening abortion restrictions and became a darling of the national GOP and pro-life groups. Would Massachusetts elect a Republican like that? Absolutely not.

I don't think Wendy's re-election prospects to the Senate are necessarily all that dim. The Republicans already overplayed their hand on redistricting once and hence we must visit this issue again. Some people might want to exact revenge on Davis for this by chopping up her district, but Joe Straus probably isn't going to let that fly. Tarrant County's GOP bench is a disaster. Their House members are all Tea Party freshmen who don't know what the hell they're doing, epitomized by Jonathan Stickland, a community college dropout who didn't pass a single bill in session and spent all his time at the back mic screaming bloody murder about black helicopters.

[CatoMinor]

For all the new fanboys of Davis, and fanfeminists, its worth noting that the quickest way for her to become unemployed is to try and run for higher office off of this.

[Napoleon]

For all the new fanboys of Davis, and fanfeminists, its worth noting that the quickest way for her to become unemployed is to try and run for higher office off of this.

Better to run now and make a decent showing than lose her Senate seat and fade away.

[CatoMinor]

For all the new fanboys of Davis, and fanfeminists, its worth noting that the quickest way for her to become unemployed is to try and run for higher office off of this.

Better to run now and make a decent showing than lose her Senate seat and fade away.

She will have the same ceiling every other Dem in Texas has, mid 40's. Maybe a little bit lower because of pro-life Democrats, especially among Hispanic Catholics. Is being a Sacraficial lamb candidate really that much better?

[Indy Texas]

For all the new fanboys of Davis, and fanfeminists, its worth noting that the quickest way for her to become unemployed is to try and run for higher office off of this.

Better to run now and make a decent showing than lose her Senate seat and fade away.

She will have the same ceiling every other Dem in Texas has, mid 40's. Maybe a little bit lower because of pro-life Democrats, especially among Hispanic Catholics. Is being a Sacraficial lamb candidate really that much better?

Pro-life Hispanics are far more willing to vote for a pro-choice candidate than pro-life whites are. They care about other issues like poverty and education and discrimination.

If Wendy Davis does run for governor, she needs to do what Bill White should have done and failed to do - aggressively court Republican and independent women. Not wanting to close all but 5 abortion clinics does not make someone a pro-abortion extremist. And the fact that no rape or incest exceptions were included makes the whole package seem even more mean-spirited and hostile to women.

That clip of Jodie Laubenberg talking about rape victims getting "cleaned out" at hospitals was one of the most disgusting, despicable things I've heard among the ignorant, factually incorrect statements about rape that Republicans love to make so much. It belongs in an attack ad on Greg Abbott.

[badgate]

A couple of TX Politics updates y'all may not have heard (or that haven't been posted yet)


Senator Dan Patrick, ranked in Texas Monthly's Worst Legislators of the session list, is probably one of the more high-profile (relatively speaking) challengers for the Lt. Governor primary. Dewhurst is running again, and it'll be pretty crowded on the GOP side. Patrick is also notable for his work reforming standardized testing and expansion of graduation pathways for Texas public schools this session.
http://www.yourhoustonnews.com/cypresscreek/news/state-sen-dan-patrick-announces-campaign-for-texas-lt-governor/article_566415e8-e00f-11e2-bed4-0019bb2963f4.html

The chaotic end of the special session coupled with Perry calling a new session so quickly have postponed his announcement
http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/bad0847437e84da1880d0a5fc57e2493/TX--Perry-Future/

Senator Wendy Davis has already had an aide float a 2014 statewide bid, which concerns me because I think it's probably too soon. I was reassured reading the actual quote, specifically the fact that the aide says they are “working closely with the Lone Star Project, Senator Davis’ team is pulling together the information needed in terms of financial commitments and voter attitudes to make an informed decision on statewide prospects." This tells me that she probably won't if she doesn't see an opening in 'voter attitudes' (I assume this means gobs of internal polling).
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/wendy-davis-texas-governor-race-93573.html#ixzz2XXomNgw5


The Texas Tribune, whose coverage of the special session was phenomenal, have a great and thorough blog for everything 2014 in Texas: http://www.texastribune.org/tribpedia/2014-statewide-elections/

[Oldiesfreak1854]

a reliable firm like PPP

Seriously?  PPP exaggerates Dem numbers early on.  They may be accurate toward the end of a campaign, but they overstate Democrat percentages early in the campaign.  I remember last summer seeing polls of the presidential campaign in several states that had Obama leading by a couple points, while PPP had polls with the same sample type in the same states that had Obama leading by almost double digits.