Mississippi

[JRP1994]

What caused Mississippi to trend Democratic from 2008 to 2012? Romney received a higher percentage of the national popular vote than McCain, yet McCain won Mississippi by a larger margin than Romney did.

[Hiwazzup]

Black people...

[Enderman]

I also noticed the same when I was looking at Alaska's results in 2012... same thing as the ol' Miss?

[ElectionsGuy]

White vote went up (%) for R's, Black vote went down (%) for D's, BUT Black turnout went up and White turnout went down. Since Mississippi's population is 37% black, the turnout factor greatly affects Obama's vote there. I think this is probably the best a president will do in Mississippi for a while. It's really nothing to worry about becuase Mississippi is a stiff/inflexible state and has no signs of electing the democrat besides the black majority 2nd congressional district.

[ElectionsGuy]

I also noticed the same when I was looking at Alaska's results in 2012... same thing as the ol' Miss?

Alaska swung democratic most likely because the Alaska native population swung towards Obama, also Asian and Hispanic (which make up about 11% together) swung towards Obama. Blacks are about 2% of the Alaska population and have little affect on the vote. Since there wasn't an exit poll in Alaska, I actually have no proof of Alaska natives swinging towards Obama, I just assume so because they are 15% of the population. The Northern Rural Boroughs in Alaska are where the Native Alaskan population has a majority, and according to this map on Wikipedia, they must have swung hard Obama

2008 Alaska Election Link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska,_2008

2012 Alaska Election Link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alaska,_2012

Also some say it's because of Sarah Palin not being on the ticket, there's perhaps many reasons Alaska swung Obama. But it's good you brought this up.

[Hiwazzup]

Here are the 6 states that Obama did better in 2012 than in 2008:

Mississippi

Alaska

New York

New Jersey

Louisiana

Maryland

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are the 6 states that Obama did better in 2012 than in 2008:

Mississippi

Alaska

New York

New Jersey

Louisiana

Maryland

New York/New Jersey: Hurricane Sandy affect
Mississippi/Maryland/Louisiana: Increased Black Turnout
Alaska: Natives and other Minorities swung towards Obama

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think all six states were turnout issues to some degree. Alaska with its Native American vote is probably the most prominent case of this; I somehow doubt that Sarah Palin's effect was enough to cause AK to trend 12 points D. Mississippi and Louisiana were due to increased black turnout, and they'll swing back right in 2016. (Hillary is another story.)

[Del Tachi]

Black turnout did not increase in MS; it decreased less than White turnout.

[ElectionsGuy]

Black turnout did not increase in MS; it decreased less than White turnout.

According to exit polls they did, I'll read it right off here:

2008
White (62%)  11% Obama, 88% McCain
Black (33%)   98% Obama, 2% McCain

2012
White (59%)  10% Obama, 89% Romney
Black (36%)   96% Obama, 4 % Romney

[barfbag]

It's been light red the last 2 elections. It could be the black vote or Christian voters not wanting to support Romney in 2012 while very conservative voters did not want to support McCain in 2008.

[Gass3268]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

[ElectionsGuy]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Maybe, but remember Obama brought out historically high Black turnout.

[TJ in Oregon]

Alaska swinging toward Obama in 2012 was probably due to Sarah Palin being on McCain's ticket in 2008.

I agree with most of this thread, Mississippi swinging toward Obama in 2012 is likely from increased black turnout and an increasing black population as a percentage of the state.

[memphis]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

[opebo]

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0

That's fascinating, memphis!  Certainly was an exodus from that hellish place.  Chicago and suchlike must've seemed like heaven.

[Asian Nazi]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

What this doesn't take into account is the growing Hispanic population as well as the fact that younger whites are more inclined to vote Democratic, rather than be monolithically Republican.

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.  This state could become competitive within a decade.

[old timey villain]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

What this doesn't take into account is the growing Hispanic population as well as the fact that younger whites are more inclined to vote Democratic, rather than be monolithically Republican.

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.  This state could become competitive within a decade.

Probably not. It's still Mississippi and I'm sure the Republicans will have some fresh wedge issues in the future to win over the vast majority of today's young Mississippians.

[Asian Nazi]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

What this doesn't take into account is the growing Hispanic population as well as the fact that younger whites are more inclined to vote Democratic, rather than be monolithically Republican.

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.  This state could become competitive within a decade.

Probably not. It's still Mississippi and I'm sure the Republicans will have some fresh wedge issues in the future to win over the vast majority of today's young Mississippians.

Well they'll have to, or else they're screwed.  Unless they can figure out a way to suppress the black vote more than they already have.

[opebo]

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.

Do you have any link to that?  I'd love to look at it...

[ElectionsGuy]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

What this doesn't take into account is the growing Hispanic population as well as the fact that younger whites are more inclined to vote Democratic, rather than be monolithically Republican.

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.  This state could become competitive within a decade.

I know you might think that, but everybody says that. The sad truth for Democrats is that even though the younger are more democratic today, they get more republican in the future. Keeping the states competitive. It's been proven that (for example) younger people in the 70's were more democratic than older people in the 70's, but now they've gotten more republican as they aged.

[memphis]

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0

That's fascinating, memphis!  Certainly was an exodus from that hellish place.  Chicago and suchlike must've seemed like heaven.

Millions of blacks left the South in the Early to Mid 20th Century. It's known as the Great Migration. Everybody knows about the industrial/war jobs in the North and so on. What's often forgotten in the history is that the invention of the automatic cotton picking machine in the 1940s put many of these folks out of work completely. Millions found themselves destitute and with no marketable skill. Not so different than life in America today.
The population of the Delta was, of course, hit the hardest. The entire local economy revolved around cotton and the manual work it demanded. Take a look at the population of Issaquena County, an extreme case. In 1860, 92.5% of its population was enslaved, the highest of any county in the nation.
Year  Pop   % change
1900 10,400  −15.6%
1910 10,560  1.5%
1920 7,618  −27.9%
1930 5,734  −24.7%
1940 6,433  12.2%
1950 4,966  −22.8%
1960 3,576  −28.0%
1970 2,737  −23.5%
1980 2,513  −8.2%
1990 1,909  −24.0%
2000 2,274   19.1
2010 1,406   -38.2

[Asian Nazi]

Each year in Mississippi the % of whites in the state is dropping and the state could be competitive by the 2020's.   

Black population in MS at each census
1900 58.5
1910 56.2
1920 52.2
1930 50.2
1940 49.2
1950 45.3
1960 42.0
1970 36.8
1980 35.2
1990 35.6
2000 36.3
2010 37.0
Yes, the black percentage in increasing again after dropping forever, but it's hardly on track to make the state competitive.

What this doesn't take into account is the growing Hispanic population as well as the fact that younger whites are more inclined to vote Democratic, rather than be monolithically Republican.

Just look at how well Obama did in 2008 and 2012 with 18-30's in Mississippi.  This state could become competitive within a decade.

I know you might think that, but everybody says that. The sad truth for Democrats is that even though the younger are more democratic today, they get more republican in the future. Keeping the states competitive. It's been proven that (for example) younger people in the 70's were more democratic than older people in the 70's, but now they've gotten more republican as they aged.

They might get more Republican, but only if the Republicans themselves change.  Individuals don't get more conservative as they age (there have been plenty of studies on this, disproving the myth, usually showing that individuals actually become more liberal as they age).  Instead, society as a whole gets more liberal (at least socially), leading individuals to become more relatively conservative in comparison to the nation as a whole.  

Plus it's not as if the youth vote has always been more liberal anyways.  This generation is especially more liberal than the nation as a whole, and it's not like we're all going to become racists and homophobes overnight.

[tpfkaw]

Mississippi 18-29 whites voted 18% Obama in '08, which was better than 11% among all whites, but not exactly something to call home about.

[memphis]

It's hard to say what the reaction of a semi-literate peasant could be in moving from a distant rural backwater to a major 20th century city. As a small child, my grandmother and her family moved from a small town in Poland to the Lower East Side of Manhattan. It had to be a major cognitive adjustment. But, sometimes you have to do what you have to do.