Did Obama win, or did Romney lose?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.

It is a pretty open debate and every election in our history could be debated as to who won and who lost until we're blue in the face. I don't remember the youth vote being quite as high as 2008, but they still voted for Obama close to what they had before.  Minority turnouts were once again higher but we'll see if it continues or not. The Obama elections are far too recent to really get an accurate reading on turn out trends because we have no future elections to compare them to. Also as a minority, Obama brought out minorities in better numbers than Hillary Clinton or other Democrats would've likely been able to.

While being Black definitely helped bring out the African-American vote, his numbers with Latinos and Asians were probably similar to what a white candidate with similar views facing the same opponents would have gotten. Being black also cost him a large chunk of the poor and working class white vote (see Appalachia) and produced a backlash among some elements of the conservative movement (see Birtherism and the Muslim rumors) that a white candidate wouldn't have had to contend with.