Did Obama win, or did Romney lose?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Did Obama win, or did Romney lose?
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Poll
Question: You know, metaphoriclly and stuff
#1
Obama won
 
#2
Romney lost
 
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Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: Did Obama win, or did Romney lose?  (Read 4248 times)
Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« on: June 21, 2013, 07:57:33 PM »

What describes the outcome better, Obama winning or Romney losing?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2013, 08:24:06 PM »

Romney lost, since he could conceivably have done things differently and won had Obama conducted the same caliber of campaign as he did IRL.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2013, 08:48:36 PM »

Romney lost. And it's hilarious.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2013, 09:39:35 PM »

Obama was "playing defense" the whole campaign, not trying to improve but stay above water, and that's what he did. He not "win" anything compared to 2008.
Romney on the other hand failed to defeat what was seen as a weak, beatable incumbent. He could have won definitely.

Romney lost.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2013, 06:19:38 AM »

Yeah, Romney lost. Obama wasn't bad, but he would have had a much harder time against a decent opponent.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2013, 08:41:56 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2013, 12:32:49 AM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Names and addresses please.
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barfbag
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2013, 11:52:25 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Names and addresses please.

You would have to ask Obama to do that. We all know how much he loves investigating conservatives and the wealthy. Voter turnout was about 4 million less conservatives than expected.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2013, 10:56:03 AM »

Romney Lost.

Obama's approval ratings were fairly mediocre until the DNC, after which he had a strong lead, but there was still room for Romney to win.

The only time that he significantly improved his chances of winning, however, were during the 1st debate. After that, he started leading in most polls, and undercut Obama in several states. But it seems after this, he became complacent, and self-assured that he would win (B.S. like Unskewed Polls certainly didn't help, though.) His performance in the second debate while not bad, per se, was lackluster compared to the first, and this is where is lead truly began to evaporate (The VP debate is where they started to lose momentum, though.) Romney's performance in the third debate was rather poor, and this is where Obama regained his lead.

And as I previously mentioned, Romney should have looked at actual polls and figured out what to do, rather than assume that they're all in cahoots with the president.

Some external factors (such as Hurricane Sandy) helped Obama as well, but the reasons for Romney's loss are primarily related to his own shortcomings.)
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RedSLC
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2013, 11:00:18 AM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Names and addresses please.

You would have to ask Obama to do that. We all know how much he loves investigating conservatives and the wealthy. Voter turnout was about 4 million less conservatives than expected.

Source?

Also, with regards to Romney's faith: while there were some evangelical fundies who didn't like Mormons, I'm certain that for most of them, Obama was still the greater of two evils, and they would still be willing to vote for one if it meant getting rid of Obama.

Also, the presence of a Mormon on the ticket is likely to have actually increased turnout in certain regions. Do you really think Utah would have swung as hard as it did had Romney not been on the ballot?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2013, 11:24:38 AM »

Obama won.  Reelection campaigns are a referendum on the incumbent.  Romney certainly made himself more of a story, more entrenched in the American psyche than a Dole or a Kerry did.  In the end, though, I think the prevailing attitude was that the country had been through a rough time, but was getting better, and Obama's simple message of "Forward" was able to resonate.  Simply put, I think enough Americans liked Obama and trusted him enough to give him enough 4 years in office. 

Remember, Romney gained quite a bit of momentum after the first debate, but was never really able to crack the amount of voters in the middle that he needed to win.  By the last weekend, undecideds had broken heavily for Obama. 

Oh, have I mentioned the Obama ground game and campaign strategy?  They never even left the 2008 battlegrounds like PA, OH, and VA.  The states where Obama didn't really bother, like in the South, Appalachia, and the Great Plains, he lost and he lost badly.  You would figure the candidate that comfortably wins nationally would have come pretty close in quite a few of the states his opponent won. 

1996: Clinton came very close in VA, NC, GA, SD, MT, and CO
2004: Bush came very close in PA, NH, WI, MN, MI, and OR

In 2012, Obama wasn't even close in any Romney state besides the only one he spent any amount of time in, NC.

The Obama campaign was obviously very strategic and he was able to secure his victory margin in the battlegrounds that he targeted.

Romney is an awkward ass-clown... but 2012 was an Obama win. 


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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2013, 03:42:53 PM »

Yes, both equally.
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bore
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2013, 04:02:59 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Obama won by 4,978,380  which, as I'm sure you can tell, is more than 4 million.

Better luck next time.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2013, 04:34:32 PM »

Both.  Obama won in the sense the election was a referendum on his first term.  Romney lost in the sense he wasn't able to make a compelling case to the voters. 
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Mechaman
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2013, 04:55:28 PM »

While I found his defense of Romney absurd (Romney was one of the worst candidates in history, full stop), I must say I have to agree with RedBan that it was more of a case of the Democrats winning and the Republicans losing.  The series of unfortunate gaffes, along with the Democrats having an effective election year strategy (appeal to the "others"), is what happened in 2012.

Really, Hockeydude said it best.  The Obama team were being purely strategic in their pursuit of the necessary 270 Electoral Votes to win.  332 Electoral votes while barely losing one state is still as much of a victory as 458 Electoral votes with 180 of those EVs within a five point margin (of course, this sort of victory would be impossible with today's political alignment).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2013, 05:09:04 PM »

Obama won it, he secured his commander-in-chief credentials by killing Bin Laden and made a case that he should remain in office despite elevated unemployment, the trajectory is going down and don't change horses.
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barfbag
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2013, 12:08:15 AM »

I don't think we're giving the people enough credit. Voters caused Obama to win and Romney to the lose. No more thought or depth of thinking needs to go into last year's election. The voters have a voice and it was heard loud and clear. Now they deserve whatever happens to them in the next 4 years.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2013, 06:40:03 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Names and addresses please.

You would have to ask Obama to do that. We all know how much he loves investigating conservatives and the wealthy. Voter turnout was about 4 million less conservatives than expected.

Unfortunately, Obama won by about 5 million, so even if those 4 million conservatives that you claim sat out, Obama still would've probably won and would've only lost Florida.
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HansOslo
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2013, 10:11:32 AM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Or because Romney was perceived as a dishonest Wall Street fat cat, who changed political positions every other year.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2013, 12:23:49 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2013, 02:02:23 PM by Stranger in a strange land »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2013, 01:14:18 PM »

Romney lost a campaign he could have won against an embattled incumbent.

Romney and his lieutenants ran a terrible campaign. 

Literally, I shuddered to find out what gaffe they were going to commit next.

Part of the reason for the Romney loss was because of morons like Santorum and Gingrich who gave the Democrats so much ammunition they hardly needed to make up any anti Romney ads.

The RNC was a disaster for the most part. 
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barfbag
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2013, 01:30:03 AM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.

It is a pretty open debate and every election in our history could be debated as to who won and who lost until we're blue in the face. I don't remember the youth vote being quite as high as 2008, but they still voted for Obama close to what they had before.  Minority turnouts were once again higher but we'll see if it continues or not. The Obama elections are far too recent to really get an accurate reading on turn out trends because we have no future elections to compare them to. Also as a minority, Obama brought out minorities in better numbers than Hillary Clinton or other Democrats would've likely been able to.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2013, 06:31:59 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.

It is a pretty open debate and every election in our history could be debated as to who won and who lost until we're blue in the face. I don't remember the youth vote being quite as high as 2008, but they still voted for Obama close to what they had before.  Minority turnouts were once again higher but we'll see if it continues or not. The Obama elections are far too recent to really get an accurate reading on turn out trends because we have no future elections to compare them to. Also as a minority, Obama brought out minorities in better numbers than Hillary Clinton or other Democrats would've likely been able to.

While being Black definitely helped bring out the African-American vote, his numbers with Latinos and Asians were probably similar to what a white candidate with similar views facing the same opponents would have gotten. Being black also cost him a large chunk of the poor and working class white vote (see Appalachia) and produced a backlash among some elements of the conservative movement (see Birtherism and the Muslim rumors) that a white candidate wouldn't have had to contend with.
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barfbag
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« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2013, 10:47:06 PM »

Romney lost because 4 million Republicans stayed home likely due to his religious beliefs.

Unlikely: In 2004 (the Values Voter Election), white Evangelicals were 23% of the electorate and voted 78% for Bush. In 2012, white Evangelicals were 26% of the electorate and voted 78% for Romney. Now, most of them were probably voting against Obama rather than for Romney, but Romney didn't suffer anywhere near the collapse in the White Evangelical vote that many feared he would.

Romney's collapse with Hispanics and his inability to make enough inroads with non-Evangelical whites were what did him in. Also, black and youth turnout remained strong, and those groups heavily supported Obama. Whether Obama won the election or Romney lost it is still an open question.

It is a pretty open debate and every election in our history could be debated as to who won and who lost until we're blue in the face. I don't remember the youth vote being quite as high as 2008, but they still voted for Obama close to what they had before.  Minority turnouts were once again higher but we'll see if it continues or not. The Obama elections are far too recent to really get an accurate reading on turn out trends because we have no future elections to compare them to. Also as a minority, Obama brought out minorities in better numbers than Hillary Clinton or other Democrats would've likely been able to.

While being Black definitely helped bring out the African-American vote, his numbers with Latinos and Asians were probably similar to what a white candidate with similar views facing the same opponents would have gotten. Being black also cost him a large chunk of the poor and working class white vote (see Appalachia) and produced a backlash among some elements of the conservative movement (see Birtherism and the Muslim rumors) that a white candidate wouldn't have had to contend with.

There's some truth to this, but the Democratic Party as a whole has drifted away from their union base and become more of a minority and big government base.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2013, 04:35:06 AM »

The Obama campaign was clearly better than the Romney campaign in terms of ad war, ground game, social networking targeting and message discipline. Even if Romney didnt have all his gaffes he still would have lost but it would have been closer
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