India 2014

[jaichind]

In Maharashtra which already finished voting it seems that Gujus (people of Gujarati background) voted en mass for BJP to support Modi but seems to have voted UPA where SS is running to protest the SS Marathi chauvinism.  SS seems to have noticed this trend is quite unhappy about it.  If this ends up impacting the SS which we will know after the results comes out this might be the cause of problems in the BJP-SS alliance in Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

The subtle Modi vs 160 Club BJP battle continues.  The de facto leader of the 160 club BJP president Rajnath Singh is running in old BJP stronghold Lucknow.  It seems that pro-Modi activists  in Lucknow had a slogan before the vote which took place yesterday which said "If Modi has to win, Rajnath has to lose." It is said that the 160 Club within the BJP led by Rajina Singh want to work it so that BJP wins around 160-180 seats.  Then Modi would be out since he could not get the allies to form a government.  Then Rajnath Singh would come in to the rescue to become the BJP candidate for PM and form a BJP based government.  The pro-Modi forces knows this and are seeking to counteract that by sabotaging Rajnath Singh campaign with this slogan.  With comrades like this who needs enemies.

[jaichind]

Signs that the Modi wave may be ebbing.  The latest NDTV poll for the 13 seats yet to vote in Bihar  revealed
                  
BJP+      23%  
RJD+      32%
JD(U)+   20%




NDTV's poll in April 1st for Bihar was

BJP+      35%  
RJD+      28%
JD(U)+   21%




NDTV's poll in March 15th for Bihar was

BJP+      32%  
RJD+      26%
JD(U)+   22%



To be fair these 13 seats are does include Lalu Yadav's district so the PVI of these 13 seats relative to the rest of Bihar might be RJD +1 or +2 so we might need to subtract 1 or 2 from RJD+ and add 1 or 2 to BJP+ and JD(U)+  but it is clear that this latest poll has BJP+ performing a good deal worse than in the March 15th poll.  

I have always said that even when polls get it wrong which they do all the time in India, they do get some trends correctly.  If these are the results of the latest poll then at least in Bihar it is clear that when the votes are counted BJP+ will do a good deal worse than the pre-election polls will project.  If the exit polls that comes out on May 12th show the same trend we can be even more certain of that fact.  I suspect these trends are result of anti-BJP consolidation and I feel the same is taking place in UP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let us hope this means great electoral glory for the darling of the masses!

[jaichind]

There seems to be a split view of the election between the media world and the bookie world.  One can tell looking at the media that they feel that the tide is beginning to turn against the NDA and that pre-elections polls of NDA of 250+ might be an exaggeration of the NDA results.

But in the world of bookies the odds makers and punters has BJP doing very well.  In the Delhi betting markets it has AAP at around 7 seats, BJP at around 215 seats and INC at around 80 seats.  In the Mumbai markets it is even more extreme, they have AAP at around 3 seats, BJP at around 240 seats and INC at around 70 seats.  One can see the regional biases of the punters with Delhi where the AAP are in the running having a more positive view of AAP chances. 

While the punters are often wrong on the election results just like the exit polls in 2004 and 2009, one theme we can gather from these punter results is that UPA is not doing well in Maharashtra and if the UPA needs to win enough seats to stop Modi (which means containing NDA to around 210 seats or so at most) they have to find a way to do that without counting on much in Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

Is my latest prediction which as NDA at 225 and UPA at 142.

Outlook magazine also had a prediction in its latest edition where they had NDA at 229 (really 227 since they seems to count INLD as NDA which is psudo-true as INLD indicated they will support Modi but they are running separately from BJP-HJC).  Outlook has NDA on a state by state basis

JK   2 out of 6 (I have 1)
UP  30 out of 80 (I have 38)
HP  2 out of 4 (I have 3)
Uttarakhand 4 out of 5 (I also have 4)
Punjab 7 out of 13 (I have 4)
Haryana 8 out of 10 (it is really 6 as they added 2 from INLD, I have 5)
Delhi 2 out of 7 (I have 4)
MP 26 out of 29 (I have 24)
Maharashtra 32 out of 48 (I have 31)
Rajasthan 16 out of 25 (I have 20)
Gujarat 19 out of 26 (I have 20)
Goa 1 out of 2 (I also have 1)
Karnataka 6 out of 28 (I have 7)
TN 6 out of 39 (I have 5)
AP 13 out of 25 (I have 11)
Telangana 3 out of 17 (I have 2)
Kerela  1 out of 20 (I have 0)
Bihar 20 out of 40 (I have 16)
Jharkand 8 out of 14 (I have 7)
Chhattisgarh 9 out of 11 (I have 8  )
Orissa 6 out of 21 (I have 4)
WB 0 out of 42 (I have 1)
Assam 5 out of 14 (I have 3)
Northeast 2 out 11 (I also have 2)
Federal 1 out of 6 (I have 3)

[covermyeyes]

Zero seats for AIUDF in Assam? I would have thought that Dhubri was a sure bet for them.

I would be interested in knowing which seats you see the BJP winning in WB and Assam?

Before the elections, I was given to understand that INC was very strong in Upper Assam, but reports since then have been contradictory. Most see BJP winning anywhere between 3-5. However, its not quite clear if these are coming from Lower Assam (where the BJP is fighting to retain 4 seats) or from Upper Assam.

[jaichind]

Zero seats for AIUDF in Assam? I would have thought that Dhubri was a sure bet for them.

I would be interested in knowing which seats you see the BJP winning in WB and Assam?

Before the elections, I was given to understand that INC was very strong in Upper Assam, but reports since then have been contradictory. Most see BJP winning anywhere between 3-5. However, its not quite clear if these are coming from Lower Assam (where the BJP is fighting to retain 4 seats) or from Upper Assam.

You make a very good point about Dhubri and AUDF.  I could be wrong about this but I figured that the AUDF vote base would go to INC to stop BJP although there is no need to do that in Dhubri. I might have to re-think that one.  As for where the BJP will make their seats, I think BJP gained in 2009 from INC AUDF split in Lower Assam.  This time the AUDF vote will go INC in lower Assam to stop BJP.  It will be in Upper Assam that the BJP will absorb the AGP vote share to gain a few seats.  The high Assam turnout is a sign of unprecedented polarization which really means bad news for AUDF and AGP.

As for WB, I figure BJP might get lucky and win a seat in South WB, where the INC is weak and Left Front is also losing vote share.  Of course the Muslim vote will go TMC but BJP is gaining here and might manage to grab one of these seats.

[jaichind]

NDTV polls for the 33 seats left to vote in UP threw up a result that is very favorable to BJP



This seems even more favorable than the last pre-election poll from NDTV where they projected that BJP will win 50 seats.  So the trends in UP seems favorable for BJP even as Bihar turns against BJP.

[covermyeyes]

You make a very good point about Dhubri and AUDF.  I could be wrong about this but I figured that the AUDF vote base would go to INC to stop BJP although there is no need to do that in Dhubri. I might have to re-think that one.  As for where the BJP will make their seats, I think BJP gained in 2009 from INC AUDF split in Lower Assam.  This time the AUDF vote will go INC in lower Assam to stop BJP.  It will be in Upper Assam that the BJP will absorb the AGP vote share to gain a few seats.  The high Assam turnout is a sign of unprecedented polarization which really means bad news for AUDF and AGP.

As for WB, I figure BJP might get lucky and win a seat in South WB, where the INC is weak and Left Front is also losing vote share.  Of course the Muslim vote will go TMC but BJP is gaining here and might manage to grab one of these seats.

Dhubri seat is being contested by Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, and the most influential Muslim leader in Assam. Muslim consolidation in favour of INC might hurt AIUDF in rest of Assam, but in Dhubri I can't see Ajmal losing.

Also, what do you make of pre-election data for Assam? This is from CNN-IBN in April.

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I simply can't understand how a massive lead for INC in Upper Assam has become a BJP clean sweep. Well, at least this is what I am gathering from recent reports. Another thing is that INC leads BJP strongly in rural areas. Upper Assam is mostly rural. If anything, the BJP should be winning its seats in areas like Guwahati.

As for Bengal, I will be surprised if BJP wins even a single seat. But, then again, there is a first time for everything. If 2014 is a wave election, I suppose the BJP might get lucky and win a seat or two.

[jaichind]

Dhubri seat is being contested by Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, and the most influential Muslim leader in Assam. Muslim consolidation in favour of INC might hurt AIUDF in rest of Assam, but in Dhubri I can't see Ajmal losing.

Also, what do you make of pre-election data for Assam? This is from CNN-IBN in April.

I simply can't understand how a massive lead for INC in Upper Assam has become a BJP clean sweep. Well, at least this is what I am gathering from recent reports. Another thing is that INC leads BJP strongly in rural areas. Upper Assam is mostly rural. If anything, the BJP should be winning its seats in areas like Guwahati.

As for Bengal, I will be surprised if BJP wins even a single seat. But, then again, there is a first time for everything. If 2014 is a wave election, I suppose the BJP might get lucky and win a seat or two.

You make a very good point about Dhubri.  But I think unlike 2009 the BJP is in fray this time and might change the dynamics of the race to shift votes from AUDF to INC to make sure BJP does not win (of course the BJP has no chance in Dhubri anyway).  Of course the counter trend is even more likely since AUDF is most likely to be seen to be stronger of the two.

As for the CNN-IBN poll, it has AUDF losing a third of its vote from 2009 to INC (I believe this and suspect the bleed might be more then that), but INC not losing any vote share to BJP nor AGP from 2009.  With BJP and AGP running seperately as opposed to 2009 this poll really mean a complete sweep for INC with the result being: 12 INC, 1 BPF, 1 AUDF.  Just like I think the various polls overestimate BJP on other parts of India I think this poll overestimate INC.  But yes, if this poll is true then INC will sweep in Upper Assam as well.  But IF INC did lose ground from 2009 aside from the surge it will get from AUDF vote bloc going to INC in Lower Assam, then that loss is more likely in Upper Assam where AUDF was weak anyway and tactical voting by AUDF supporters will not help INC.  

Speaking of polls it is also interesting that NDTV last pre-election poll had INC at 9 and BJP at 5 in Assam. It seems NDTV also made the the assumption I did about Dhubri although now you are point this out I am re-thinking this one.  On top of this this prediction makes no sense as in Kokrajhar neither INC nor BJP are running (although BJP is supporting an independent and INC is support BPF)  So the INC+BJP seat count cannot be 14.  Unless NDTV counts the BJP supported independent as BJP feel that he will win ? I think BPF will win Kokrajhar.

For WB, it will not surprise me at all if BJP, after all the huffing and puffing, end of with zero. I just figure they might get lucky and win one.  Of course the bigger effect of the BJP surge in WB is that is upsetting the expected TMC landslide.    If BJP stayed weak, then other some INC and Left Front bastions, I expected TMC to sweep the rest.  But with BJP running much stronger it is taking way from TMC votes which is forcing TMC to run an anti-Modi campaign to consolidate the Muslim vote.  As it is the BJP surge is helping Left Front but if the BJP surge is even stronger than expected then it might actually pull the anti-TMC vote which might otherwise go to Left Front and win a seat or two.

[jaichind]

Speaking of  Kokrajhar.  There was a bunch of post-election violence in  Kokrajhar where it seems some Bodo extremest went on a killing rampage of Muslims in this region.  I am not so sure but I suspect it has to do with the fact that these Muslims voted for the TMC candidate or the BPF candidate and not "the Bodo candidate" such as the ex-BPF candidate running as an independent who is the Bodo nationalist candidate and backed by the psudo-extremist ABSU.  BPF nominated a more inclusive candidate and this might have created tensions in the Bodoland movement as BPF is suppose to be THE BODO party.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[covermyeyes]

Dhubri seat is being contested by Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, and the most influential Muslim leader in Assam. Muslim consolidation in favour of INC might hurt AIUDF in rest of Assam, but in Dhubri I can't see Ajmal losing.

Also, what do you make of pre-election data for Assam? This is from CNN-IBN in April.

I simply can't understand how a massive lead for INC in Upper Assam has become a BJP clean sweep. Well, at least this is what I am gathering from recent reports. Another thing is that INC leads BJP strongly in rural areas. Upper Assam is mostly rural. If anything, the BJP should be winning its seats in areas like Guwahati.

As for Bengal, I will be surprised if BJP wins even a single seat. But, then again, there is a first time for everything. If 2014 is a wave election, I suppose the BJP might get lucky and win a seat or two.

Speaking of polls it is also interesting that NDTV last pre-election poll had INC at 9 and BJP at 5 in Assam. It seems NDTV also made the the assumption I did about Dhubri although now you are point this out I am re-thinking this one.  On top of this this prediction makes no sense as in Kokrajhar neither INC nor BJP are running (although BJP is supporting an independent and INC is support BPF)  So the INC+BJP seat count cannot be 14.  Unless NDTV counts the BJP supported independent as BJP feel that he will win ? I think BPF will win Kokrajhar.

I also think BPF will win in Kokrajhar. However, the incumbent four time MP and former BPF leader is running as an independent, so things might get tricky.

As for the opinion polls, BPF is allied with INC in Assam. The AIUDF, likewise, is part of the UPA government at the centre. So, I think the 9 seats for INC actually translates into 7 + 1 + 1.  While the AIUDF is happy to support INC at the national level, they contest elections separately, something that I think NDTV has failed to take into account. Media in Delhi is often shoddy when it comes to reporting Assam and the NE.

7 seats for INC sounds about right if there really is a BJP wave and corresponding AGP decline at same time. In 1999, there was a pro NDA wave in Assam, but INC ended up with 10 seats because votes were split in three tiered contests. This time, the overall tally will depend on the results of Upper Assam. I believe INC can wrest most, if not all BJP seats in Lower Assam. If they retain the 4 seats of upper Assam, then INC should end up with 10-12 seats, keeping in line with pre-election polls.

[jaichind]

Since the Indian stock market surge has been based on an assumption of a Modi government, a lot of investment banks are getting into the act in terms of election prediction.

Nomura Holdings sees the medium case as 220 seats for NDA, the 25 percentile case for NDA is 200 seats .

IIFL Holdings expects 225 seats for NDA which matches by current prediction exactly.

Credit Suisse expects 220-230 seats for NDA and says their survey of institutional investors shows average expectations of 233 seats for NDA.

The following brokers indicated what the Indian stock market reaction is going to be based on the number of seats captured by NDA

Lok Sabha Seats           Sell off below   Rally above
Brokers
HDFC  Securities                   220           250
Kotak Securities                   250            --
Motilal Oswal                        230           255
KR Choksey Securities          260           290
IIFL Holdings                         200           230
Geojit BNP Paribas                230           250
SMC Capital                          200           240
Prabhudas  Lilladher            240           273
Magnum Broking                   220           260
Maximus Securities               240           275
Dalton Capital                      240           260
Augment Financial Serv        240           280
KRIS Ltd                               215           280
Equinomics Research           200           250
Sumedha Fiscal                    240           300
CNI Research                      255           280
Pratibhuti Viniyog                230           270
Alpha Ideas                        230           280
Kitna Paise                          230           260

AVERAGE                             230           266

I guess one can then derive that the average broker reading of market expectation should be the average of the sell below and rally which would be (230+266)/2 = 248 which pretty much matches the average pre-poll surveys for the number of seats for NDA.

So the various investment communities seems think the result will be anywhere between 220 to 250 for NDA.  If exit polls comes out in the lower end of that range then my opinion this that NDA will get less then that as it shows a shift in momentum from before the election in which the exit polls might not fully capture. 

[Gustaf]

Exit polls should be coming in 2 days right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

Exit polls should be coming in 2 days right?

5/12 9am EST

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Sbane]

Excellent maps!

[Tender Branson]

Excellent maps!

This ...

...

Plus: I've read somewhere that turnout in all of India was around 2/3, which would mean a total of 540 out of 815 Mio. have voted.

[Gustaf]

First exit poll release says

Dehli:
BJP: 5-7
AAP: 0-2

Punjab:

NDA: 6-9
UPA: 3-5
AAP: 1-3

Looks like AAP is doing well, and Congress badly.

[Gustaf]

Assam: BJP 8 (out of 14)

So far exit polling indicates them beating Jaichind's prediction.

[Gustaf]

Bihar/Times Now:

BJP: 28

Bihar/ABP:

BJP: 19
LJP: 2
RJD: 10
Congress: 4
JD(U): 5