Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State

[RedSLC]

On West Virginia, I looked at the precinct results on the SoS website to see who won Huntington. Although it was close (the margin of victory being just under 800 votes), Obama won Huntington.

It actually makes sense if examined closely. roughly 90% of the city is in Cabell County, and Obama won that portion of the city in 2008 with approx. 53% of the vote. Cabell County only had a swing of about 2 points towards Romney (one of the smallest swings of any county in WV), meaning that if it swung as much as the county, Obama would still have narrowly won that portion of the city. Wayne County had a much bigger swing, but only about 4,000 people in that county also live in Huntington. Just like 2008, Romney won all four precincts that make up this part of the city, but it was not enough to overcome his deficit.

Since Parkersburg was 57% McCain in 2008 (and likely >60% Romney in 2012), there's your answer.

[RedSLC]

RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.

Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.

[RedSLC]

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.

I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.

[RedSLC]

RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.

Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.

Wrong. Obama won East Greenwich 3649-3535. While Obama got only 49.9% of the vote there, he still won the town. So Scituate is still the correct answer.

Are you sure? I looked at the state election board website. The vote numbers you gave are correct, but the website says it was Romney 3649 votes, not Obama.

I need more posts before I can post links, but the link to the site is the first reference on the wikipedia article for United States Presidential election in Rhode Island, 2008.

[RedSLC]

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.

I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.

This happened in Sandoval, NM in 2012.  All the Republicans there are in the large suburb of Rio Rancho, whereas the rest of the county (which Obama narrowly won) is heavily Hispanic and Native.  Pretty sure Obama won Rio Rancho in 2008, but it usually tilts R and it looks like it narrowly flipped in 2012.

Similarly, there are probably a couple rural Black Belt counties where the white population is concentrated in larger towns, or other tilt-D suburban counties where the conservative areas just happen to be less subdivided than the liberal ones.  I was wondering if Burlington County, NJ would be one- since its largest town, Evesham, is several points to the right of the county as a whole, but it appears Obama narrowly won Evesham in 2012, so no.

I think you're right about the black belt counties. Going on DRA, I discovered another one: Obama very narrowly won Oktibehha County, Mississippi in 2008 (by 6 votes, to be exact), but narrowly lost the county's largest city, Starkville, by just over 100. Interestingly, both the city and the county are 62% white, which was probably one of Obama's best performances with the white vote anywhere in Mississippi, likely because of the presence of MSU.

Someone should start a thread on this kind of thing. It looks very interesting.

[RedSLC]

Delaware is really a mess. Their voting district lines only occasionally correspond to city / township boundaries.

Oklahoma is like that too. I tried to figure out whether Obama or McCain won the small city of Okmulgee in 2008, but precinct shapes make it just about impossible to tell.

[RedSLC]

Hawaii: Nothing?

Romney won two precincts in Hawaii, both in Honolulu County. One covers the northern tip of the island, the other is a small one in the middle of the island.

The one in the center appears to be coterminous with Wheeler Army Airfield, which is classified as a CDP by the US census. It has a population of approx. 1,600 people.

The other one contains three CDPs, the largest of which is Laie (pop. approx. 6,100). I'm pretty certain Romney won it, because this particular town is home to certain university: BYU Hawaii

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYU_Hawaii

Also, McCain won a precinct in this same area in 2008. Therefore, I'm pretty certain that Laie is the largest place in Hawaii that Romney won.