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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State
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Author Topic: Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State  (Read 5462 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: June 15, 2013, 02:48:11 am »
« edited: July 12, 2013, 08:50:41 am by Waukesha County »

A lot of these are guesses, but I have knowledge of race and precinct results here to help me.
Respond, discuss, and correct me if I'm wrong.

Biggest Cities for each state to vote republican, NOT counties.

Alabama: Huntsville
Alaska: Anchorage
Arizona: Mesa
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: Bakersfield
Colorado: Colorado Springs
Connecticut: Greenwich
Delaware: Hockessin?
Florida: Jacksonville
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: Laie CDP
Idaho: Nampa
Illinois: Wheaton
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Ankey
Kansas: Wichita
Kentucky: Owensboro
Louisiana: Lafayette
Maine: Brewer
Maryland: Dundalk
Massachusetts: Billerica
Michigan: Livonia
Minnesota: Maple Grove.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Henderson
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River
New Mexico: Rio Rancho
New York: Oyster Bay
North Carolina: Concord
North Dakota: Bismark
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City
Oregon: Medford.
Pennsylvania: Atloona
Rhode Island: East Greenwich
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Souix Falls
Tennessee: Clarksville
Texas: Arlington
Utah: West Valley City
Vermont: Morgan
Virginia: Virginia Beach
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Parkersburg
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Again, if I'm wrong, correct me.




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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2013, 03:36:52 am »

Ni'ihau is Native Hawai'ian, not Asian. And after always voting overwhelmingly Republican it went over to Obama in 2012. Romney won a precinct or two somewhere on O'ahu, but not places (there aren't, technically, any cities in the state.)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2013, 04:07:06 am »

Ni'ihau is Native Hawai'ian, not Asian. And after always voting overwhelmingly Republican it went over to Obama in 2012. Romney won a precinct or two somewhere on O'ahu, but not places (there aren't, technically, any cities in the state.)
Thanks for correction. I just typed the rest of the damn thing and it timed out!!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2013, 04:25:32 am »

Ok, it's up again after I retyped the whole rest of it again. The blank ones are the states that I don't know. We can have a discussion on any of those.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2013, 07:44:03 am »

California: No precinct data here. Possibly Bakersfield, but I'm not confident. If not then I would believe it's Irvine.
Something better than precinct data: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2012-general/ssov/pres-by-political-districts.pdf. Irvine leans Democratic (they got a big campus there amid the suburban subdivisions...), but Bakersfield is still in the Republican camp. The second largest is Huntington Beach.
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Beats me. Best I could find is these reports.
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Billerica. Not by many votes, and there are some larger similarly marginal towns that fall on the other side of the line. I think the list I used wasn't the final results though, so maybe it flipped with absentees.
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Plymouth and Saint Cloud both voted for Obama... I didn't check all through Maple Grove, but unless there's a heavily Dem part in the higher-numbered precincts (or a heavily Republican part to Eagan) it's the answer.
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ProudNewEnglander
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2013, 01:11:50 pm »

AR: Fayetteville leans Democratic. Springdale is much more Republican. However, Fort Smith is solidly Republican, so it's the answer.

IA: West Des Moines voted for Obama. Probably the answer is Ankeny.

LA: Metairie isn't a city, it's a CDP. Some possibilities are Slidell, Houma, Lake Charles, and Bossier City.

ME: Presque Isle voted for Obama. The city you are looking for in Maine is Brewer.

MA: Billerica is indeed the answer there.

MI: Sterling Heights narrowly voted for Obama. Probably Livonia is the answer there.

MN: Maple Grove.

NJ: Toms River does not have an apostrophe.

NY: Probably Oyster Bay town.

OR: Probably Medford.

RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.

VT: Two (extremely small) towns voted for Romney: Morgan and Maidstone. Morgan is larger.

I hope this helps!
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ProudNewEnglander
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2013, 01:19:32 pm »

Also, in Georgia, Sandy Springs is larger than Roswell.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2013, 05:05:15 pm »
« Edited: June 15, 2013, 05:20:49 pm by There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease »

If you had asked me for Minnesota, I would've guessed Lakeville, but yeah it appears to be Maple Grove is larger. St. Cloud is actually pretty D-leaning.

In 2008 I think Maple Grove voted Obama, so for then the answer most likely is Lakeville.

*edit* Nope I'm wrong, Maple Grove went 51.7% for McCain (and about 53% for Romney)

For Maryland the answer is either Salisbury (if it's not significantly more Democratic than its county) or Cumberland in Allegany County. Since Salisbury looks unlikely based on its demographics, Cumberland it is then. Although at the time of the census Cumberland was just about a hundred people larger than Cockeysville (the Baltimore County place where both Andy Harris and Dutch Ruppersberger are from), and Cockeysville is an exurb that almost certainly voted Romney, and probably gained population (while Cumberland lost it). But Cockeysville is also an unincorporated "census designated place" while Cumberland is an incorporated city, so the answer depends on your definition of "city".

For Iowa the answer might also be Council Bluffs.
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ProudNewEnglander
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2013, 06:48:32 pm »

Council Bluffs voted for Obama.

Also, I'm pretty sure Salisbury also voted for Obama (after all, Wicomico County isn't that Republican; Romney got just 52% there). I didn't include MD earlier since it has so few incorporated cities, but the answer is probably Cumberland.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2013, 07:21:34 pm »

Thanks to everyone for providing me help. Appreciate it. I'll make corrections in a sec.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2013, 07:22:43 pm »

Who did Fresno vote for?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2013, 07:42:09 pm »


Obama easily, the rest of the county is much more republican.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2013, 07:53:09 pm »

Also, in Georgia, Sandy Springs is larger than Roswell.

Your right, just barely. I should stop relying on Yahoo and more on actual census info.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2013, 08:02:39 pm »

States left to figure out for confidence.

Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Kentucky
New York
North Dakota
Oregon
West Virginia.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #14 on: June 16, 2013, 04:12:44 am »

Ah, the memories. Ten years ago Yahoo was actually relevant. Cheesy

Connecticut - Greenwich is correct.
For my amusement: Romney shares in the ten largest municipalites of Connecticut:
Bridgeport 13.8%
New Haven 9.9%
Hartford 6.3%
Stamford 36.8%
Waterbury 34.3%
Norwalk 36.0%
Danbury 40.5%
New Britain 22.7%
Greenwich 55.2%
Bristol 41.0%

Kentucky - precinct lines don't match up with city lines perfectly, and absentee votes are only tallied countywide, so there will be no definite exact city results, ever. Tracing the city outline of Bowling Green as closely as I could - exactly in many parts, not so in others. And I may have made mistakes - I came out with an Obama win by 477 votes (since every precinct in the county to vote for Obama is within the city lines, actually I summed the Romney victory margins of precincts outside the city and checked whether they came to more or less than his county total. This figure still includes the absentee votes for the entire county, which Romney won by 888 or a margin of about 2 to 1; subtract them as well and Obama is quite well ahead.) I then started doing the same thing for Owensboro until noticing that the precincts I determined to be in the city were identical to the precincts whose number begins in A. Here too Obama won only precincts in the city, but he did come close in some of the rural precincts (in the northeast of the county) with Romney doing correspondingly better in the city, and certainly winning it.
So, yeah. Owensboro is correct.

North Dakota - same problem of precinct lines, though absentees appear to be added in with precincts. The territory inclosed by and including 45-01, 16-01, 16-02, 16-03 and 27-03 was won by Obama by 362 votes. Exclude the three 16er precincts and it shrinks to just 64 votes, though exclude also the two large northern and southern edge precincts and it grows all the way to 991. So yeah, close as it may have been Obama won Fargo. Romney won every single precinct in Burleigh County (one of them with under 50% of the vote though) and thus Bismarck is the answer.

The others are harder to confirm. Undecided
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ProudNewEnglander
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2013, 01:15:09 pm »

As for the remaining states:

NY: As I said, probably Oyster Bay town. Only NYC, Hempstead, Brookhaven, and Islip are larger. NYC and Hempstead are solidly Democratic. Brookhaven and Islip both voted about 53% for Obama in 2008, and Suffolk County had only a very small swing toward Romney in 2012. Thus, it is very likely that both Brookhaven and Islip also voted for Obama in 2012, which leaves Oyster Bay town as the answer.

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.

AL: Probably Hoover, but I don't have any solid evidence to back that up.

DE and WV: I have no clue.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2013, 02:02:52 pm »
« Edited: June 16, 2013, 02:06:38 pm by Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon »

TN: The Knox. News Sentinel reported that Obama won Knoxville by 3,000 votes - though that only covered majority-city precincts.  The precinct boundaries are relatively close to the city boundaries, though there could be enough exceptions to put Romney over the top, but I do not have enough knowledge of Knox Co. to say for sure.  If I had to guess, I'd say Obama won Knoxville 800-1,000 votes.

The next candidate would be Clarksville.  Using DRA, the 2008 results are very very close, with a slight Obama win.  With a 2.4% swing for the county, its likely that Romney won Clarksville.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2013, 02:26:28 pm »

As for the remaining states:

NY: As I said, probably Oyster Bay town. Only NYC, Hempstead, Brookhaven, and Islip are larger. NYC and Hempstead are solidly Democratic. Brookhaven and Islip both voted about 53% for Obama in 2008, and Suffolk County had only a very small swing toward Romney in 2012. Thus, it is very likely that both Brookhaven and Islip also voted for Obama in 2012, which leaves Oyster Bay town as the answer.

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.

AL: Probably Hoover, but I don't have any solid evidence to back that up.

DE and WV: I have no clue.

I'm not sure if I would consider the town governments on Long Island as cities, (the towns themselves are made up of a bunch of communities, some of which are villages, which have their own local government as well).  With that being said using that definition Oyster Bay would be the answer, Obama received 51% in Brookhaven and 54% in Islip.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2013, 02:54:49 pm »

HI: Looks like Romney won a couple of precincts where there are CDP's - What about Kawela Bay, Kahuku, and Schofield Barracks
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2013, 03:15:30 pm »

It's a little bit ironic that Obama won Florida and Virginia, while losing the largest city in each state.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2013, 03:15:57 pm »

How did you determine Arlington as largest REP city in Texas? Based on precinct data as given by the Tarrant Election Office, which would have been quite cumbersome? Or did you have other sources (e.g. newspaper articles)?
Looking at county data alone, Forth Worth may have been the largest Texan city that voted Republican. Corpus Christi looks pretty much tied. Laredo went definitely Republican, as did Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2013, 05:12:45 pm »

How did you determine Arlington as largest REP city in Texas? Based on precinct data as given by the Tarrant Election Office, which would have been quite cumbersome? Or did you have other sources (e.g. newspaper articles)?
Looking at county data alone, Forth Worth may have been the largest Texan city that voted Republican. Corpus Christi looks pretty much tied. Laredo went definitely Republican, as did Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa.

Yep, I used Dave's Redistricting App and within city lines, McCain won it, so Romney most definitely won it. Although Fort Worth lines are quite messy, what I can tell is that it went 53% Obama. Also the other cities you mentioned, don't you mean Laredo went definitely Democratic? Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa are all solidly republican as you said. Corpus Christi Leans Republican, but doesn't matter because it's not bigger than Arlington.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2013, 05:14:09 pm »

As for the remaining states:

NY: As I said, probably Oyster Bay town. Only NYC, Hempstead, Brookhaven, and Islip are larger. NYC and Hempstead are solidly Democratic. Brookhaven and Islip both voted about 53% for Obama in 2008, and Suffolk County had only a very small swing toward Romney in 2012. Thus, it is very likely that both Brookhaven and Islip also voted for Obama in 2012, which leaves Oyster Bay town as the answer.

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.

AL: Probably Hoover, but I don't have any solid evidence to back that up.

DE and WV: I have no clue.

Ok, Thank you. I'll put it up I just didn't know if you were confident or not.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2013, 05:20:10 pm »

Ah, the memories. Ten years ago Yahoo was actually relevant. Cheesy

Connecticut - Greenwich is correct.
For my amusement: Romney shares in the ten largest municipalites of Connecticut:
Bridgeport 13.8%
New Haven 9.9%
Hartford 6.3%
Stamford 36.8%
Waterbury 34.3%
Norwalk 36.0%
Danbury 40.5%
New Britain 22.7%
Greenwich 55.2%
Bristol 41.0%

Oh my god, Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport I knew would be liberal but damn! Actually this doesn't surprise me. Mostly minorities in cities and mostly whites in rural areas.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2013, 05:34:21 pm »

TN: The Knox. News Sentinel reported that Obama won Knoxville by 3,000 votes - though that only covered majority-city precincts.  The precinct boundaries are relatively close to the city boundaries, though there could be enough exceptions to put Romney over the top, but I do not have enough knowledge of Knox Co. to say for sure.  If I had to guess, I'd say Obama won Knoxville 800-1,000 votes.

The next candidate would be Clarksville.  Using DRA, the 2008 results are very very close, with a slight Obama win.  With a 2.4% swing for the county, its likely that Romney won Clarksville.


Are you serious? WOW, the rest of Knox must be Uber Republican. Romney won at least 63% in Knox right? I actually just checked on Dave's App and Obama won Knoxville 51-47 to McCain. While the rest of the county, which holds more population than the city, went 69-29 McCain while the county overall went 61-38. In 2012 the county went 64-34 and if the city was roughly tied, then the rest of the county voted around 74% Romney. Insane man, we really are in the biggest Urban-Rural divide we've ever been in.
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