Counties with a larger population than Wyoming

[The Mikado]

So I discovered this and I was wondering if anyone had any opinions about it.

[jimrtex]

So I discovered this and I was wondering if anyone had any opinions about it.

Is there one with states with less population than Los Angeles County?

And if the populous counties were treated as separate states what effect would it have on the electoral vote?

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm surprised that there are so many of them; I wouldn't expect to see two in Oklahoma alone.

[TDAS04]

It's interesting that there are a few in neighboring Colorado and Utah, including the city of Denver.  I knew that Denver was more populous than Wyoming, but I'm a little surprised about Salt Lake County.

EDIT:  I just found out that Salt Lake County has more than one million people.  I guess Utah's populations is heavily concentrated in the area.  It's quite a metropolis compared to anything in Wyoming. 

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Is there one with states with less population than Los Angeles County?

And if the populous counties were treated as separate states what effect would it have on the electoral vote?

Doubt it in this format, but it's not hard to make one.

For future reference this is it:

Red: Greater than LA County
Blue: Less than LA County

And if populous counties were separate states, then Republicans would do a lot better. Look at the influence Cook County has on Illinois for example. It's almost half of IL's population, and controls the state politics. Let's say Cook splits of from Illinois, and gets 10 EV's, and that the rest of the state gets 10 EV's. That's a net loss of 10 EV's for the Democrats, because downstate Illinois is fairly Republican. Now split off all counties like Cook in other states, and you see Republican victories in states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Certainly a massive effect.

[muon2]

Thanks for the discovery Mikado. I live in one of those counties larger than six states. It's interesting to put that in context. Perhaps a count per state would be a good follow up.

[old timey villain]

people always forget that Georgia is actually a pretty big state

[Padfoot]

Is there one with states with less population than Los Angeles County?

And if the populous counties were treated as separate states what effect would it have on the electoral vote?

Doubt it in this format, but it's not hard to make one.

For future reference this is it:

Red: Greater than LA County
Blue: Less than LA County

And if populous counties were separate states, then Republicans would do a lot better. Look at the influence Cook County has on Illinois for example. It's almost half of IL's population, and controls the state politics. Let's say Cook splits of from Illinois, and gets 10 EV's, and that the rest of the state gets 10 EV's. That's a net loss of 10 EV's for the Democrats, because downstate Illinois is fairly Republican. Now split off all counties like Cook in other states, and you see Republican victories in states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Certainly a massive effect.

I think the benefit to Republicans would depend largely on the states in question.  In the Great Lakes states (like Illinois) it would probably benefit Republicans more as you noted.  However, states like California and New York could probably split into several states that all maintained at least a leftward tilt.  That would increase both the default number of Democratic EVs and Senators.  Also, splitting any urban areas off of the southern states would mostly be beneficial to the Democrats for essentially the same reason that it would harm them in states like Illinois.

As a side note, IMO we should have some sort of mandatory state splitting provision in the Constitution that would break up any state with more than 10% of the US population living in it.

[jimrtex]

So I discovered this and I was wondering if anyone had any opinions about it.

Projecting 2012 estimate forward to 2020, will remove Baltimore City, MD and Ocean, NJ, and add Utah, UT.

[traininthedistance]

I'm surprised that there are so many of them; I wouldn't expect to see two in Oklahoma alone.

I'm surprised there are so few.

Yes, really.  I'd have expected more suburban counties like Utah, UT; Jefferson, CO; New Castle, DE; and Delaware, PA to make the cut.

I guess Wyoming is about 50K larger than I was imagining it.

[jimrtex]

So I discovered this and I was wondering if anyone had any opinions about it.

Is there one with states with less population than Los Angeles County?

And if the populous counties were treated as separate states what effect would it have on the electoral vote?

Apportionment (representatives, add +2 for senators)

Texas 15, Harris 6, Dallas 3, Tarrant 3, Bexar 2, Travis 2, El Paso 1, Collin 1, Hidalgo 1, Denton 1, Fort Bend 1.

Obama carries Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo.  Romney 31 (-7), Obama 27 (+27).

Pennsylvania 12, Philadelphia 2, Allegheny 2, Montgomery 1, Bucks 1.

Romney carries Pennsylvania.  Romney 14 (+14), Obama 14 (-6).

Ohio 12, Cuyahoga 2, Franklin 2, Hamilton 1.

Romney carries Ohio.  Romney 14 (+14), Obama 11 (-7).

Florida 11, Miami-Dade 4, Broward 2, Palm Beach 2, Hillsborough 2, Orange 1, Pinellas 1, Duval 1, Lee 1, Polk 1.

Romney carries Florida, Duval, Lee, Polk.  Romney 22 (+22), Obama 24 (-5)

North Carolina 11, Mecklenburg 1, Wake 1.

Obama carries Mecklenburg, Wake.  Romney 13 (-2), Obama 6 (+6).

Virginia 10, Fairfax 2.

Obama carries Virginia and Fairfax.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 16 (+3)

Georgia 9, Fulton 1, Gwinnett 1, DeKalb 1, Cobb 1.

Obama carries Fulton and DeKalb.  Romney 17 (+1), Obama 6 (+6).

California 9, Los Angeles 14, San Diego 4, Orange 4, Riverside 3, San Bernardino 3, Santa Clara 3, Alameda 2, Sacramento 2. Contra Costa 2, Fresno 1, Kern 1, Ventura 1, San Francisco 1, San Mateo 1, San Joaquin 1.

Romney carries Orange and Kern.  Obama carries California by 312,000.   Romney 9 (+9), Obama 75 (+20).

New York 9, Kings 4, Queens 3, New York County 2, Suffolk 2, Bronx 2, Nassau 2, Westchester 1, Erie 1, Monroe 1.

Obama carries New York  by 150,000 (he carries 12 of 13 largest counties, all but Oneida).  Romney 0 (0), Obama 47 (+18).

Indiana 8, Marion 1.

Obama carries Marion.  Romney 10 (-1), Obama 3 (+3).

Michigan 8, Wayne 3, Oakland 2, Macomb 1, Kent 1.

Romney carries Kent, Obama carries Michigan by 21,207 (loss of the first 3 had flipped it to Romney, Kent flipped it back).   Romney 3 (+3), Obama 22 (+6)

Illinois 7, Cook 7, DuPage 1, Lake 1, Will 1.

Romney carries Illinois by 152,000.  Romney 9 (+9), Obama 18 (-2)

Tennessee 7, Shelby 1, Davidson 1.

Obama carries Shelby and Davidson.  Romney 9 (-2), Obama 6 (+6)

Wisconsin 7, Milwaukee 1.

Obama carries Wisconsin by 25,000.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 12 (+2)

South Carolina 7.
Louisiana 6.

No change for South Carolina and Louisiana.

New Jersey 6, Bergen 1, Middlesex 1, Essex 1, Hudson 1, Monmouth 1, Ocean 1.

Romney carries Monmouth and Ocean, Obama carries New Jersey by 296,000.  Romney 6 (+6), Obama 20 (+6)

Missouri 6, St. Louis County 1, Jackson 1.

Obama carries St Louis county and Jackson.  Romney 8 (-2), Obama 6 (+6).

Minnesota 6, Hennepin 2.

Obama carries Minnesota by 42,000.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 12 (+2)

Alabama 6, Jefferson 1.

Obama carries Jefferson.  Romney 8 (-1), Obama 3 (+3).

Kentucky 5, Jefferson 1.

Obama carries Jefferson.   Romney 7 (-1), Obama 3 (+3).

Washington 5, King 3, Pierce 1, Snohomish 1.

Romney carries Washington by 21,000 votes.  Romney 7 (+7), Obama 11 (-1).

Colorado 5, El Paso 1, Denver 1, Arapahoe 1.

Romney carries El Paso, Obama carries Colorado by 20,000 votes.   Romney 3 (+3), Obama 13 (+4)

Oregon 4, Multnomah 1.

Obama carries Oregon by 17,000.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 9 (+2).

Iowa 4, Mississippi 4, Arkansas 4, Kansas 4.

No Change.

Maryland 4, Montgomery 1, Prince George's 1, Baltimore County 1, Baltimore City 1.

Romney carries Maryland by 65,000.  Romney 6 (+6), Obama 12 (+2).

Oklahoma 3, Oklahoma County 1, Tulsa 1.

Romney sweeps.   Romney 11 (+4), Obama 0 (0).

Massachusetts 3, Middlesex 2, Worcester 1, Essex 1, Suffolk 1, Norfolk 1.

Obama sweeps.  Romney (0), Obama 21 (+10).

West Virginia 3, Nebraska 3.

No change.

Utah 2, Salt Lake 2.

Salt Lake County is comparable to Nebraska in its hard-left liberalism.  Remove that flaming red bright pink baby blue not quite steel blue county, and Utah goes 81.2% to 16.6% for Romney.  Romney 8 (+2). Obama 0 (0).

Arizona 2, Maricopa 5, Pima 1.

Obama carries Pima.  Romney 11 (0), Obama 3 (+3).

Idaho 2.

No Change.

New Mexico 2, Bernalillo 1.

Obama carries New Mexico by 35,000.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 7 (+2)

Maine 2, New Hampshire 2.

Montana 1.

No Change.

Connecticut 1, Fairfield 1, Hartford 1, New Haven 1.

Obama carries Connecticut by 46,000.  Romney (0), Obama 12 (+5)

Delaware 1, South Dakota 1.

No Change.

Nevada 1, Clark 3.

Romney carries Nevada by 33,000.  Romney 3 (+3), Obama 5 (-1).

Alaska 1, North Dakota 1, Vermont 1, Wyoming 1.

No change.

Rhode Island 1, Providence 1.

Obama sweeps.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 6 (+3).

Hawaii 1, Honolulu 1.

Obama sweeps.  Romney 0 (0), Obama 6 (+3).

District of Columbia 1 (as per Constitution).

Total Net:

Obama +129, Romney +87.

Obama 461, Romney 293.

Separating out the large counties flipped 7 states, but with much diminished representation: PA 12, OH 12, FL 11, IL 7, WA 5, MD 4, NV 1, for a switch of 64 electoral votes from Obama to Romney.  In addition, Romney carried 3 large counties with 3 representative in flipped states: FL 3.

Obama carried 86 of the 106 large counties, giving him 172 senatorial EV vs 40 for Romney.

Obama carried 18 large counties with 27 representatives in Romney states: TX 15, NC 2, GA 2, IN 1, TN 2, MO 2, AL 1, KY 1, AZ 1.

Romney carried 5 large counties with 8 representatives in Obama states: CA 5, NJ 2, CO 1.

Obama retained 25 counties with 44 representatives in states that flipped: PA 6, OH 4, FL 12, IL 10, WA 5, MD 4, NV 3.

Romney carried 10 large counties with 17 representative in Romney states: TX 6, GA 2, OK 2, UT 2, AZ 5.

Obama carried 44 large counties with 80 representative in Obama states: VA 2, CA 38, NY 18, WI 1, NJ 4, MN 2, CO 2, OR 1, MA 6, NM 1, CT 1, RI 1, HI 1.

[muon2]

As a side note, IMO we should have some sort of mandatory state splitting provision in the Constitution that would break up any state with more than 10% of the US population living in it.

Rather than a mandatory split, it would probably make more sense to cap the number of representatives from any one state, with a requirement that any such state that petitions Congress to be split shall be granted that request. The cap should vary with the number of states, for example the cap could be at the total number of seats divided by the square root of the number of states - 61 at present.

If there is a large state penalty it would make sense to have one for small states as well. One such clause could be the loss of a Senator for populations less than the average House seat, and any petition to Congress for consolidation involving such a state shall be granted.

[Хahar 🤔]

Of course, such a provision would require the consent of every state.