Clinton vs. McCain, 1996

[A18]

Clinton / Clinton

What's a map look like?

[Nym90]

Clinton would have won, McCain would have done better than Dole though. He would have won Arizona, probably also Nevada, maybe New Mexico.

Otherwise the map probably looks the same. Most of the close states were in the South, and McCain would not have more appeal than Dole in the South, I wouldn't think.

[Moooooo]

No one beats Clinton in 1996 as Bob said in another post.  The economy was strong, it was peace time, and Monica wasnt even a blip on the screen.  McCain would have made it a little closer, but still lost.

Damn, Philip.  You really dislike McCain that much?

[Wakie]

McCain would have gain AZ, KY, NV, and TN.  But at the end of the day he still loses.

[nclib]

Clinton/Clinton.

McCain may have won Ohio, New Hampshire, and Maine, or these states would at least have been closer.

[The Duke]

People forget that Clinton looked like a dead duck until the budget standoff.  He was finished.  After Hillarycare and higher taxes, there were people penciling in "43rd President, Colin Powell, Republican".

The economy was good, yes, but it wasn't great until '97.  That's when the tech bubble got rolling and the DOW shot up.  Just look at the economic indicators from 1996 versus 1998 or 1999, there was a real difference between the good economy of the mid nineties and the great one of the late nineties.

There were no major wars, but Clinton was not satisfying people with his foreign policy.  Bosnia was torubling because we had pledged to get out in one year after going in Dec 95, but during the campaing, Clinton had to admit that this was bogus.  No one had forgotten about Haiti.  No one was satisfied about Iraq.  North Korea was starting to look kind of freaky.

The budget deal tarnised both Gingrich and Dole, the two faces of the GOP congress.  Because Pete Wilson got sick early in the primaries and Powell decided not to run, Dole had no serious opposition.  Phil Gramm was a fad, Forbes was a flash in the pan.  After the priamries, Dole was hit from day one on the budget shutdown and his Contract With America pledge to slash Medicare.  His campaign was scary it was so backwards looking.  Clinton's line "Bridge to the future" was originally a play off from Dole's pledge to build "A bridge to the past".  Clinton was optimistic, Dole was dour.  Clinton was charismatic, Dole was dour again.  Clinton was young and looked forward, Dole was old and looked backwards.

McCain was not dour and he did not look back.  He also could hit Clinton where Dole never could: Campaign reform.  All through the campaign, stories of Chinese money leaked from the Clinton camp.  He was a crooked ass pol, btu Dole opposed campaign reform, so what could he say?  All he could do was attack Clinton's character, but he never related it back to Clinton's governance.  A man who sleeps around is fine, if he does his job.  But if we see that his low character allows him to be bought off by foreighn nationals, that's something else entirely.  McCain could make this charge better than anyone.

McCain would win because he is everything Clinton wasn't.  We have this tendency to look back and say, well that election was a foregone conclusion.  It really wasn't though.  Clinton was not assured of winnning, but Dole was assured of losing.

[Moooooo]

Pretty good points Ford, but I still cant see McCain flipping enough states in 1996 to pull out the win.  Even if you give him Kentucky, Tennesee, Arizona, New Mexcio, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada.  He would still come up a little short.  Plus, McCain wasnt really the national figure in 1996 that is now, was he?

[Bo]

Clinton/Clinton

Clinton would win in reality due to the good economy in 1996.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Derek]

I completely agree with the last map just above. Clinton by 5 or close to 6.

[Bo]

Give McCain FL and LA and I agree with you.

[Derek]

Yea I forgot about FL. It's interesting to see states that went completely to the right this decade.
WV, KY, TN, MO, AR, LA. It has to be democrats on social issues. Clinton had no problem winning MO, WV, and LA in 1996. Bush had no problem winning any of these either time.

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[Psychic Octopus]

A smaller Clinton win. I agree with most of Ford's points, though.

[Conservative frontier]

Clinton / Clinton