VA-PPP: McAuliffe (D) now ahead by 5

[Tender Branson]

McAuliffe leads in lesser of 2 evils race

PPP's first look at the race for Governor of Virginia since January finds that as voters get to know the candidates better...more are becoming undecided. That's not the normal trend, but it's also not normal to have an election where voters dislike both candidates five months out.

That's the case here. Terry McAuliffe is not popular, with 29% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 33% with a negative one. But we find that Ken Cuccinelli is even more unpopular, with 44% of voters rating him unfavorably to just 32% with a positive opinion. As a result we find McAuliffe leading Cuccinelli by a 5 point margin, 42/37. McAuliffe also led by 5 points on our January poll, but the share of voters who are undecided has spiked from 13% at the start of the year now up to 21%.

Cuccinelli has a big problem with independent voters. Only 25% have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one, and he trails McAuliffe by 11 points with them at 39/28. Democrats are also a little bit more sold on McAuliffe with 82% supporting him right now, while 78% of Republicans are committed to Cuccinelli.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/mcauliffe-leads-in-lesser-of-2-evils-race.html#more

[Marston]

Ugh, what a depressing election this will be. Anybody want to take a stab at turnout numbers? Personally, I think it's going to plummet from 2009.

[publicunofficial]

They also polled the LG and AG races.

LG:

Dem Primary:
Aneesh Chopra - 27%
Ralph Northam - 18%

General:
Aneesh Chopra - 36%
E.W. Jackson - 29%

Ralph Northam - 35%
E.W. Jackson - 29%


Attorney General:

Dem Primary:
Mark Herring - 22%
Justin Fairfax - 19%

General:
Mark Obenshain - 32%
Justin Fairfax - 30%

Mark Obenshain - 32%
Mark Herring - 33%


Not very informing, as no one is well known yet. Though I'm sure Jackson will get his name out there soon enough.

[Miles]

Good for Chopra. There are a ton of undecideds, but I hope his lead holds; he also does better against Jackson.

[opebo]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

[Lief 🗽]

Are there any majority Puerto Rican precincts in Virginia? I look forward to Terry's dominating performance in them.

[free my dawg]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

This isn't some moderate hero that won like McAuliffe is. This is a guy that was literally inches away from becoming a Republican, and he was rewarded four years later with this... how are Dems not supposed to be pissed at Chopra losing?

Hardly a Democrat if you ask me. VA Dems sh**t the bed tonight. One of those corny diarrhea sh**ts too.

[krazen1211]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

This isn't some moderate hero that won like McAuliffe is. This is a guy that was literally inches away from becoming a Republican, and he was rewarded four years later with this... how are Dems not supposed to be pissed at Chopra losing?

Hardly a Democrat if you ask me. VA Dems sh**t the bed tonight. One of those corny diarrhea sh**ts too.

White liberals wanted one of their own kind rather than yield the seat to a nonwhite.

[Zioneer]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

This isn't some moderate hero that won like McAuliffe is. This is a guy that was literally inches away from becoming a Republican, and he was rewarded four years later with this... how are Dems not supposed to be pissed at Chopra losing?

Hardly a Democrat if you ask me. VA Dems sh**t the bed tonight. One of those corny diarrhea sh**ts too.

White liberals wanted one of their own kind rather than yield the seat to a nonwhite.

Oh come on, you're not even trying with this bit of trolling.

[free my dawg]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

This isn't some moderate hero that won like McAuliffe is. This is a guy that was literally inches away from becoming a Republican, and he was rewarded four years later with this... how are Dems not supposed to be pissed at Chopra losing?

Hardly a Democrat if you ask me. VA Dems sh**t the bed tonight. One of those corny diarrhea sh**ts too.

White liberals wanted one of their own kind rather than yield the seat to a nonwhite.

Oh come on, you're not even trying with this bit of trolling.

Krazen's right. I do think that race had a little bit to do with it (being endorsed by WaPo helps too).

[DINGO Joe]

Race may have had a small role as Aneesh may have been able to mobilize the small Indian community in Virginia, but otherwise I don't see it.  What I see looking at the county level votes is that Northam was able to GOTV in his political base in Norfolk and Portsmouth and the counties he grew up in and totally dominate those areas.

If Aneesh had a political base it was NoVA and he lost it narrowly.  Aneesh's best showing was in Roanoke of all places and he even won a couple of coal counties which had very low turnout.  Why or how he did this I have no idea.  If you wish to claim race played a role you should try to back that with numbers.

As for Northam, I have no idea what he was up to  in the Senate as I don't follow these things that closely, but he is clearly a social liberal, even if prone to being a dealmaker.  Which, I think describes NoVa to a T (IMHO).

[free my dawg]

Frankly, dingojoe, I don't give a sh**t if he's a social liberal. If you think about betraying your party, you do not deserve to have that label for the rest of your life.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Race had nothing to do with Chopra losing.  Don't be dumbasses.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Frankly, dingojoe, I don't give a sh**t if he's a social liberal. If you think about betraying your party, you do not deserve to have that label for the rest of your life.

what label?  Democrat?  Lt. Gov?   Why do you care so much?

[free my dawg]

I care because I prefer party loyalty instead of blindly having an orgasm over every moderate candidate.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I care because I prefer party loyalty instead of blindly having an orgasm over every moderate candidate.

Great, you can have all the party loyalty you can handle in the form of McAuliffe and the fact nobody upset the party and challenged him. 

If there was any perceivable difference in views between Chopra and Northam, or between Herring and Fairfax, I might have voted. 

[free my dawg]

I care because I prefer party loyalty instead of blindly having an orgasm over every moderate candidate.

Great, you can have all the party loyalty you can handle in the form of McAuliffe and the fact nobody upset the party and challenged him. 

If there was any perceivable difference in views between Chopra and Northam, or between Herring and Fairfax, I might have voted. 

I use "party loyalty" very loosely. If you remember my earlier posts, I wanted Perriello to run. McAuliffe seems like an incredibly blah candidate in his views and personality, and Perriello could have become a rising star in the Democratic Party for 2020. You should know I would have preferred a more progressive candidate, especially with a candidate like Ken Cuccinelli running. Hell, I can handle a candidate like McAuliffe or even a more conservative candidate. What I can't deal with is nominating someone who nearly betrayed his own party.

I'm not one of those true leftists who are calling for Matheson's head even though he lives in Utah or applauding Bloomberg's efforts to derail Pryor's and Begich's re-election bids and people who won't support background checks get elected. I just want a candidate who won't sell out my party's majority in the state senate or go Republican. Is it really that much of a ****ing problem to ask?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I just don't understand being this worked up over a mostly ceremonial position for a state you don't even live in. but if you feel it's important, ok.

[free my dawg]

and I'm a Chopra fan too

[Miles]

Fantastic news - VA is continuing its smart march to the center.  McAuliffe should win this narrowly.

This isn't some moderate hero that won like McAuliffe is. This is a guy that was literally inches away from becoming a Republican, and he was rewarded four years later with this... how are Dems not supposed to be pissed at Chopra losing?

Hardly a Democrat if you ask me. VA Dems sh**t the bed tonight. One of those corny diarrhea sh**ts too.

White liberals wanted one of their own kind rather than yield the seat to a nonwhite.

So is that why Tom Perriello and Gerry Connolly were campaigning for Chopra?

[DINGO Joe]

Was curious what the whole back story was on near party switch of Northam, so I dug around some Virginia political blogs to find out and based primarily on the Not Larry Sabato blog the basic narrative is this:

The Virginia Senate basically gets to appoint judges.  Northam, with the assistance of some Tidewater Republicans got some of his choices installed over the wishes of a more senior Democratic Senator who also represents part of Norfolk (there was a white/black component to the judicial candidates under consideration).  In retaliation, the senior Democrat got funding for the hospital Northam is affiliated with removed from the budget, Northam then had discussions with Republicans on some kind of power sharing  deal where Northam would back Republicans for certain committees, almost certainly including the one held by Northam's now nemesis.  The Dems found out and ultimately Gov Kaine promised Northam that the hospital funding would be put back in the budget and everyone lived happily ever after. 

Sounds like something straight out of Hardball.  If the dispute hurt him with the local minority community or his colleagues in general it certainly didn't show in the primary vote.