Four years from today, who will be.....?

[CumbrianLefty]

And that comment about Swinson - genuine ROFLMAO.

She is a lightweight centre-right neoliberal.

The end.

[JerryArkansas]

And that comment about Swinson - genuine ROFLMAO.

She is a lightweight centre-right neoliberal.

The end.

This reply and others you've done reek of cultist leftism.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think such a description of her is even particularly controversial.

She is what she is.

Like, even right leaning LibDems tend not to think a statue of Thatcher is a good idea.

[thumb21]

PM of the UK: Corbyn (Labour)
President of the US: Warren (Democratic)
Chancellor of Germany: Merkel or maybe someone else in the CDU
President of France: Macron (REM)
PM of Canada: Scheer (Conservative)
PM of Greece: Mitsotakis (ND)
President of Cyprus: Papadopoulos (DIKO)
PM of Spain: Rajoy (PP)

2 years later, I was wrong about Rajoy, Papadopoulos and probably Merkel but I am still confident I was right about Mitsotakis and Macron. Interesting that I predicted Warren as the Democratic nominee, I forgot this myself. There is a lot of indication nowadays this may come true - although a Trump re-election seems more likely than it did back then. I still stand by my predictions for Corbyn and Scheer, although less confidently now.

[Lachi]

Updating, holy hell I was off on some of these back in 2017 haha

...president of the United States? who knows honestly
...chancellor of Germany? AKK probably
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Gove
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

[Beezer]

Von der Leyen turned out to be dud, so that meant that Merkel either had to run for another term or risk turning the party and the country over to someone who's not loyal to her, like Jens Spahn. She decided to do the former and eventually appointed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as her new heir-apparent after the 2017 election. In picking Kramp-Karrenbauer she even followed the same pattern she had used when appointing Von der Leyen four years prior... choosing a pragmatic, moderate-to-liberal, female CDU politician who's practically a younger clone of yourself.

And AKK has turned out to be a dud as well. Guess this means Merkel will have to run again in 2021...

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of the UK? Boris Johnson

This looks likely now.  Seems unlikely there'll be another election before 2021, so Johnson will still be PM then.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, no one who posted in this thread in either 2017 or 2018 predicted Biden would be POTUS four years later.  Obamaisdabest predicted Harris would be prez in 4 years back on April 29, 2017: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174056.msg5628151#msg5628151

That seems very unlikely to be correct at this point, but I guess in the unlikely event that Biden gets a massive health scare during his first three months in office, then it could happen.

The other predictions people had back in 2017/2018 for who would be president in 2021/2022 were: 4 predictions for Trump, 2 for Pence, 2 for Warren, and 1 each for Booker, Bullock, Gillibrand, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Tom Perriello, and Darryl W. Perry (lol).  And like I said, zero people predicting Biden.

Also, as noted in my previous post, back in April 2017, LabourJersey predicted that Boris Johnson would be UK PM in four years.  No one else was predicting Johnson back in 2017.  Most people at that point predicted that May would still be PM in 2021.

Lots of people in 2017 predicted Merkel in Germany, Macron in France, and Trudeau in Canada, but those were the safest predictions to make in 2017.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Alain Juppé (please...)
...prime minister of the UK? Is that McDonnell guy talked about as more likely to succeed Corbyn? If so, hopefully him.
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnbull

Two of them are already proven wrong, and another in all but name. I got Trudeau right, and I guess Merkel and Turnbull might still work out (though hopefully not!).

Narrator: Turnbull did not work out.

I've grown increasingly uninterested in predictions over the last few years, so I don't think I'll be engaging in this thread again.

[Samof94]

Putin and Xi I predict will be still in power in 2025.

[Tender Branson]

Does any1 want to try a new prediction for Jan 2, 2025 ?

[Former President tack50]

...president of the United States?
...chancellor of Germany?
...president of France?
...prime minister of the UK?
...prime minister of Canada?
...prime minister of Australia?

President of the US: Donald Trump
Chancellor of Germany: Whoever the SPD nominates in 2021
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the UK: Theresa May (also wins reelection in 2022)
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: No idea

Also, Prime Minister of Spain: Mariano Rajoy, or whoever PP nominates if he retires (probably Soraya Saenz, but I can also see Cospedal or Feijoo instead)

Well this aged very poorly lmao. Only one I ended getting right is Macron which was impossible to miss.

Especially hilarious is the fact that I predicted Theresa May hanging for way too long (though in fairness the Conservative Party did win reelection, just not with May).

Anyways, here is my new bet for the start of Jaunary 2025:

President of the US: Whoever the Republicans nominate (technically Biden but he will be in the lame duck term)
Chancellor of Germany: Whoever wins the CDU leadership election in 2021
President of France: Emmanuel Macron
Prime Minister of the UK: Keir Starmer
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau
Prime Minister of Australia: Anthony Albanese

Prime Minister of Spain: Pedro Sánchez

[NewYorkExpress]

President of the United States: Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as President-elect.

Chancellor of Germany: Heiko Maas

President of France: Marine Le Pen

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister of Australia: No clue

[brucejoel99]

...president of the United States? Mike Pence (succeeded to the Presidency following the July 2019 resignation of Donald Trump; defeated the Democratic challenger, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, in the 2020 presidential election)

...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (has already announced she wouldn't seek re-election to a 5th term)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron (hovering around 40% approvals, & climbing; expected to run for re-election in 2022 (& defeat most candidates in 2nd-round hypotheticals))

...prime minister of the UK? Theresa May (not yet gone but behind Yvette Cooper's Labour in the polls prior to the expected May 2022 general election)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (headed for a third majority in 2023)

...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten (Labor's 2019 victory had mirrored the Coalition's 2016 narrow margin victory with 76 seats & the Liberal Party again switched leaders: back to Tony Abbott, who in 2021 is expected to (again) defeat Labor at the 2022 election)

Well, I don't see Merkel, Macron, or Trudeau being forced out-of-office sometime in the next 4 months, so 3 out of 6 ain't bad! (Not to mention, the specific predictions for both Merkel & Macron appear to have been spot-on!) Thank god my American prediction ended up being hilariously incorrect, but RIP the hopes for PM Shorten & an incoming PM Yvette Cooper

Here goes nothing for January 2, 2025:

...president of the United States? Joe Biden (preparing for his imminent 2nd term)

...chancellor of Germany? Markus Söder (Armin Laschet was elected CDU chair, but Söder was chosen to be the CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate & went on to form the expected Black-Green coalition, though bumpier-than-expected coalition talks mean they're not able to take office 'til Jan. 2022, allowing Merkel to surpass Kohl & become the longest-serving post-war Chancellor in Dec. 2021.)

...president of France? Emmanuel Macron

...prime minister of the UK? Keir Starmer (2024 sees the Tories & Labour end up neck-&-neck in terms of seats (~285 each), & Starmer forms a minority coalition government with the Lib Dems in exchange for electoral reform, supported by a confidence-&-supply deal with the SNP in exchange for IndyRef2.)

...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (Liberals won a majority in the spring of 2022)

...prime minister of Australia? Anthony Albanese (2022 sees Labor win 73 seats to the Coalition's 72, & Albanese forms a minority government with the support of the Greens MP & 2 crossbenchers.)

[CumbrianLefty]

President of the United States: Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as President-elect.

Chancellor of Germany: Heiko Maas

President of France: Marine Le Pen

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister of Australia: No clue

Even if the Tories are still in power as 2025 arrives, its highly unlikely that Johnson will then be PM.

[Astatine]

President of the United States: Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as President-elect.

Chancellor of Germany: Heiko Maas

President of France: Marine Le Pen

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister of Australia: No clue

Nah, he is considered a rather mediocre Foreign Minister, plus it is highly unlikely the SPD will recover by then. He lost state elections he ran for three times in a row and even in case of an (unlikely) SPD recovery, state governors who could prove to win by then (Manuela Schwesig, Stephan Weil?) seem more suited to be the SPD candidate for Chancellor.

[NewYorkExpress]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

I mean, you're obviously wrong, but this thread is such a weird concept that it doesn't feel worth addressing.

[Tender Branson]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

[CumbrianLefty]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

There are certainly strong reasons for thinking it might not happen, but "look at America" maybe isn't one given that we are talking about *France* here

[Antonio the Sixth]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

There are certainly strong reasons for thinking it might not happen, but "look at America" maybe isn't one given that we are talking about *France* here

"If the Americans voted for Reagan by a 10%-margin, the French will not elect Mitterrand..."

[Tender Branson]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

There are certainly strong reasons for thinking it might not happen, but "look at America" maybe isn't one given that we are talking about *France* here

"If the Americans voted for Reagan by a 10%-margin, the French will not elect Mitterrand..."

🍎 & 🍊

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

Out of curiosity, do you foresee a DeSantis/Hawley ticket as a MAGA tripling-down, or as DeSantis running as a somewhat more Generic R and then bringing Hawley in to nail down the Trump diehard lane?