Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants

[Tender Branson]

Hessen had 5.993.771 people at the end of 2011.

So, what will they do ?

Will they use the 2011 Census numbers or the End-2011 numbers for Hessen (loses 1 seat), or will they re-apportion later, using the End-2012 numbers (keeps all seats, because more than 6 Mio.) ?

[Tender Branson]

Among cities with 100K+ populations, Aachen had the biggest negative error rate:

Aachen .................................... 236.420 258.246 -21.826 -8,5%

Berlin had the worst numerical error:

Berlin........................................ 3.292.365 3.471.756 -179.391 -5,2%

...

The best positive error rate (overcount) was in

Bergisch Gladbach..................... 108.878 105.690 3.188 3,0%

and the best positive numerical error was in

Bielefeld.................................... 326.870 323.146 3.724 1,2%

[Tender Branson]

States with highest share of migration background:

27.5% Hamburg
25.2% Baden-Württemberg
25.1% Bremen

States with lowest share of migration background:

3.3% Thüringen
3.5% Sachsen-Anhalt
3.7% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Cities (100.000+) with highest share of migration background:

Offenbach am Main....................... 48,9%
Pforzheim...................................... 46,6%
Heilbronn...................................... 46,1%
Frankfurt am Main.......................... 42,7%
Stuttgart........................................ 38,6%
Ingolstadt...................................... 38,1%
Ludwigshafen am Rhein................. 36,5%
Nürnberg....................................... 36,2%
Augsburg....................................... 36,0%
Mannheim..................................... 35,7%

[Tender Branson]

Citypopulation already has the 2011 Census numbers and End-2011 numbers for each district, using Google Maps:

http://www.citypopulation.de/php/germany-admin.php

[minionofmidas]

Hessen had 5.993.771 people at the end of 2011.

So, what will they do ?

Will they use the 2011 Census numbers or the End-2011 numbers for Hessen (loses 1 seat), or will they re-apportion later, using the End-2012 numbers (keeps all seats, because more than 6 Mio.) ?

The number of votes (they aren't, of course, actually seats) amends monthly. According to the state data as retroactively emended for the Census result, Hesse crossed 6 million inhabitants in June. They keep the vote.

Of course that still means we used a sixth vote we shouldn't have had for 16 years. (Or maybe there were ups and downs and we'd have been over 6 million for part of that time anyways? Like I care.)

States with highest share of migration background:

27.5% Hamburg
25.2% Baden-Württemberg
25.1% Bremen

That surprises you? Ever had a look at Switzerland? (Also, be sure to check the definition of Migrationshintergrund.)

[Tender Branson]

Hessen had 5.993.771 people at the end of 2011.

So, what will they do ?

Will they use the 2011 Census numbers or the End-2011 numbers for Hessen (loses 1 seat), or will they re-apportion later, using the End-2012 numbers (keeps all seats, because more than 6 Mio.) ?

The number of votes (they aren't, of course, actually seats) amends monthly. According to the state data as retroactively emended for the Census result, Hesse crossed 6 million inhabitants in June. They keep the vote.

Of course that still means we used a sixth vote we shouldn't have had for 16 years. (Or maybe there were ups and downs and we'd have been over 6 million for part of that time anyways? Like I care.)

States with highest share of migration background:

27.5% Hamburg
25.2% Baden-Württemberg
25.1% Bremen

That surprises you? Ever had a look at Switzerland? (Also, be sure to check the definition of Migrationshintergrund.)

I knew that BW had a high foreigner/migration background share, but I thought it was more in the Bavaria dimension (15-20%).

[Tender Branson]

States in which more German citizens were counted than what was estimated:

Bayern
Bremen
Rheinland-Pfalz
Saarland

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/SocietyState/Population/_Doorpage/Census_CurrentMigration.html?nn=142236

[Tender Branson]

(Also, be sure to check the definition of Migrationshintergrund.)

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[Tender Branson]

"Kazakhstan"

...

Germans in Kazakhstan coming back to Germany in the past 20 years I suppose, then counted as someone with "migrant background" ?

"Aussiedler und Spätaussiedler"

[Tender Branson]

States with the highest share of people older than 65:

24.8% Sachsen
24.3% Sachsen-Anhalt
23.2% Thüringen
22.6% Brandenburg
22.1% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

States with the lowest share of people older than 65:

19.0% Hamburg
19.3% Berlin
19.4% Baden-Württemberg
19.5% Bayern
19.8% Hessen

States with the highest share of people younger than 18:

17.7% Baden-Württemberg
17.4% Niedersachsen
17.0% Bayern
17.0% NRW
17.0% Schleswig-Holstein

States with the lowest share of people younger than 18:

12.7% Sachsen-Anhalt
13.1% Thüringen
13.4% Sachsen
13.4% Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
13.7% Brandenburg

[minionofmidas]

"Kazakhstan"

...

Germans in Kazakhstan coming back to Germany in the past 20 years I suppose, then counted as someone with "migrant background" ?

"Aussiedler und Spätaussiedler"

Of course, the inclusion of the 'Russians' makes perfect sociological sense. The Romania Germans and the 70's set of Poland-German emigrants, rather a lot less so.

But really, the big issue is that the precise definition used can vary a lot between statistical tables (the citizenship tables that were all that was available until about five years ago having become quite uninformative) - city statistical offices frequently speak of an 'indication of migration' rather than a 'migrant background' as they wouldn' be able to know if your parents were naturalized a year before you were born (and thus count loads of young Turkish kids as having no 'indication of migration'. 'Migration' being, of course, understood as a synonym for ethnic otherness by anybody looking at these tables.)

[Tender Branson]

The newspaper "Die Welt" has an article called "Did 1.5 million people just vanish ?"

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article116703461/Sind-1-5-Millionen-Menschen-einfach-verschwunden.html

With a clickable map showing the error rates.

The article notes that the error is smallest in Rheinland-Pfalz with just 0.2% and they say that RP has a central population register, which the other states do not have.

Germany and the states also have formed a commission about how to improve the population registers and the procedures of registering people to make it more accurate (probably also for the 2021 Census).

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that there is currently no centralized population register in Germany.

The reluctance to set up a Germany-wide CPR is due to abuses of such an institution by the Nazis to single out Jews and other groups who the Nazis wanted to find.

[Tender Branson]

The new census numbers will also impact the state fiscal transfer payments.

Wealthy German states like Bayern, BW, Hessen, Hamburg etc. are so called net-payers, while other states (mostly the Eastern states) are net-recipients.

The new numbers are brutal for Berlin and not so brutal, but still bad for Hamburg.

Berlin, as a net-recipient, will have to pay back 1 Bio. € for 2012 and 2013 and will receive ca. 500 Mio. € less in the coming years.

Hamburg as a net-payer will have to pay ca. 100 Mio. € more each year.

Rheinland-Pfalz on the other hand, which had the lowest error, will get a better position and will receive 150 Mio. € more each year.

[Franknburger]

The "Welt" article is mentioning an interesting point that I was not aware of - Germans temporary moving abroad don't have to deregister. That should explain quite some part of the differences in university towns (temporary studying / promoting abroad) and major business centres (temporary management assignments abroad). Plus things like the Diplomatic Corps (including secretaries, security etc.) and foreign army / navy missions. All in all easily 100-200 k.

[I also recall a friend's son who after school had moved to Ireland for several years but of course did not deregister as he preferred his teeth being looked after by a German dentist free of charge ..]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

For those interested in alternate history threads, here's the number of Representatives each German State would get based on the 2010 US and 2011 German census numbers if the US and Germany were to unite and each US State were to get the same number of Representatives as it does now.

15 - Baden-Württemberg
17 - Bayern
  5 - Berlin
  3 - Brandenburg
  1 - Bremen
  2 - Hamburg
  8 - Hessen
  2 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
11 - Niedersachsen
25 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  6 - Rheinland-Pfalz
  1 - Saarland
  6 - Sachsen
  3 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  4 - Schleswig-Holstein
  3 - Thüringen

So a total of 112 more Representatives and 32 more Senators for 144 more Electors.

No flexibility here by the way.  Under the given numbers Minnesota, which currently gets the 435th seat gets the 547th seat, and the 548th would go to North Carolina.

Brandenburg's 4th seat would be the 549th overall and Bayern's 18th seat would be the 550th.

[Tender Branson]

Ernest,

Angela Merkel does not approve of this new system:

[Tender Branson]

Checking the state statistics websites, Bayern and Baden-Württemberg both have ca. 80% Christians and 5% Muslims. 15% are "other" or "no religion" or "not stated".

[ilikeverin]

But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing?

Not very surprising; women have been outpacing men at church attendance for a while now (maybe since the 1700s).  What I'm more curious about is the fact that the 18-29 year olds are the least likely to report no religion.

[politicus]

But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing?

Not very surprising; women have been outpacing men at church attendance for a while now (maybe since the 1700s).  What I'm more curious about is the fact that the 18-29 year olds are the least likely to report no religion.

Could be because its the most ethnically diverse age group. Minority groups are generally more religious than ethnic Germans.

[Ban my account ffs!]

But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing?

Not very surprising; women have been outpacing men at church attendance for a while now (maybe since the 1700s).  What I'm more curious about is the fact that the 18-29 year olds are the least likely to report no religion.

Could be because its the most ethnically diverse age group. Minority groups are generally more religious than ethnic Germans.

Especially considering the number of young ethnic Germans has been falling for 40 years now and is probably the lowest number since some time in the 2nd half of the 19th century.

[Franknburger]

But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing?

Not very surprising; women have been outpacing men at church attendance for a while now (maybe since the 1700s).  What I'm more curious about is the fact that the 18-29 year olds are the least likely to report no religion.

The explanation on female church retention rate is much more simple: Mandatory church tax is not being levied on the household income, but for each household member individually. People typically only start minding about their church membership when they are to pay church tax, and many married women (even when gaining some supplemental income through part-time work) don't reach the income threshold (their husbands typically do, and then leave the church if they are not true believers).

As to the 18-29 olds: With increasing mobility, cross-confessional (i.e. protestant-catholic) marriages have become more common. Many couples that are anyway only lukewarm on religion save themselves from the trouble of arguing about which confession their children should take. Instead, they leave it to their children to decide once they are grown-up.

Don't forget: The religious divide from the bitterly fought War of Thirty Years is still present in today's Germany. My mother, who grew up on the upper Weser, recalls from her childhood boys regularly throwing stones at each other across the river which separates protestant Lower Saxony and catholic North-Rhine Westfalia (Greetings to Belfast, Sarajevo and Beirut).

Edit: Did not read the figures correctly - 18-29 y adherence rate is indeed higher than for older groups. Minorities / immigration may play a role, but that would at best explain an elevated catholic adherence (Italian, Polish, Croatian), but not the protestant one.  For the protestants, there may be an "East German" effect in play - this is the pre-unification East German baby boom generation, and those that have been brought up religiously in the East are unlikely to leave church now (especially considering the role of the church in the East German protest movement).
Otherwise, it may as well be income-related - you typically only get out of church when you are getting taxed, i.e. have finished education.

[minionofmidas]

It's almost certainly much more simple: Note the exact figures by age group.
30-50 3 points fewer church members than 50-65, their children (<18) 2.7 points fewer church members than the 50-65ers' children (18-29) but 2.5 points more church members than their parents (18-29: 3.0). It's a case of churched ethnic Germans outbreeding unchurched ethnic Germans.

The overall higher church retention rate of Catholics (check the over 65 numbers. Germany is ancestrally majority Protestant) is of course largely, though not quite entirely, due to the large minority of Catholics among the immigrant populations.

Verin, mainline church attendance on ordinary sundays is exclusively elderly female except for the priest and an occasional pensioner dragged along by his wife over virtually the entirety of Germany [/slight exaggeration]. The vast majority of church members aren't seen except at baptisms, confirmations, funerals and *possibly* weddings, Christmas and Easter. Though they might send their kids to a churchey youth group.

[Tender Branson]

End-2011 estimates (based on the May 2011 Census)

10.512.441 - Baden-Württemberg
12.443.372 - Bayern
  3.326.002 - Berlin
  2.453.180 - Brandenburg
     652.182 - Bremen
  1.718.187 - Hamburg
  5.993.771 - Hessen
  1.606.899 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.774.253 - Niedersachsen
17.544.938 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.990.033 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     997.855 - Saarland
  4.054.182 - Sachsen
  2.276.736 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.802.266 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.181.603 - Thüringen

80.327.900 - Germany

My projected End-2012 estimates (using official state birth/death data up to November and migration balances up to November/December)

10.568.000 - Baden-Württemberg (+55K)
12.517.000 - Bayern (+74K)
  3.370.000 - Berlin (+44K)
  2.448.000 - Brandenburg (-5K)
     654.000 - Bremen (+2K)
  1.733.000 - Hamburg (+15K)
  6.017.000 - Hessen (+23K)
  1.600.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (-7K)
  7.778.000 - Niedersachsen (+4K)
17.551.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen (+6K)
  3.990.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz (no change)
     994.000 - Saarland (-4K)
  4.050.000 - Sachsen (-4K)
  2.259.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt (-18K)
  2.806.000 - Schleswig-Holstein (+4K)
  2.170.000 - Thüringen (-12K)

80.505.000 - Germany (+177K)

...

These numbers should be within 5000 in each state and 10.000 for Germany, because December is unlikely to show significant birth/death or migration changes.

The official numbers are likely released in the coming months.

[Hifly]

I remember being dragged along by my grandmother to our local Ev.Luth Church in the suburbs of Hamburg when I was little, although thankfully this activity has now ceased. I only go in Christmas.
The interesting thing in Hamburg is that from my experience even the majority of Church organists are female. Here in the UK it's an overwhelmingly male job.