Canadian federal election - 2015

[136or142]

Lawrence Martin refers to NDP as a a party of "blue collar grunts" and says they need a candidate with Bay St. credentials.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/team-ndp-has-a-big-hole-to-fill/article25327652/

BTW no study I've seen says that being a manual worker actually increases one's likelihood of voting NDP.

Lawrence Martin's article would have more credibility if he had actually named his source.  I simply highly doubt this story is true.

Nathan Cullen has been the Finance Critic for something like 3 years now. He's likely learned all he needs to know to be a decent Finance Minister.

In Regina, CCPA economist Erin Weir is running for the NDP.

In Ontario, M.Ps Craig Scott, like Murray Rankin, a law professor also owned an art gallery and Deputy Leader David Christopherson who was a highly respected Solicitor General with the Bob Rae government would likely also make capable Finance Ministers

Former Ontario NDP Attorney General, Natural Resources Minister and Provincial Party Leader Howard Hampton is also running.

In B.C, in addition to Nathan Cullen and the previously mentioned Murray Rankin, among the current M.Ps there are also Peter Julian who was the executive director of a couple major non profit organizations and Don Davies who was a labour lawyer and is now the International Trade Critic. Rankin, in addition to be an environnmental lawyer was also a senior partner at one of the top British Columbia law firms.

Among the new candidates (much less likely to be made Finance Minister) are Gord Johns who was the executive director of a small Chamber of Commerce and before that owned a number of ecobusinesses and Bob D'Eith a lawyer, who is the Executive Director of Music B.C and also owned a specialty record music label, though he may be more interested in the Canadian Heritage Portfolio.

A newcomer who likely would get a lot of consideration is Carol Baird Ellan who was the Chief Justice of the B.C Supreme Court and before being appointed to the bar was a tax lawyer, as was John Manley.

I'm less familiar with new NDP candidates in other provinces, but I'm not sure why it would be preferential for any government to have a Bay Street type as Finance Minister or why an economist with a union background as opposed to one with a business or maybe an academic background is any less qualified.

They couldn't be any less qualified than pretend economist Stephen Harper.

[136or142]

Although I have no doubt Nathan Cullen would make a decent Finance Minister he would be the least credentialed person in the position for at least the last 30 years.

1.Michael Wilson, in addition to be a corporate lawyer was also the Executive Vice President of Dominion Securities.

2.His successor, Don Mazankowski, owned a car dealership prior to getting into politics, but he was the most important member of the Mulroney government as he was known as the "Minister of Everything."

I forget who Kim Campbell's Finance Minister was.  Jean Charest?

3.Paul Martin, was both a lawyer and President of Canadian Steamship Lines.  He was also the son of a Liberal cabinet minister who ran three increasingly eccentric races for the Liberal Party leadership.

4.John Manley was, as I said above, a tax lawyer who was Industry Minister prior to being appointed to Finance.

5.Ralph Goodale was a lawyer but he was probably best known in Saskatchewan for being leader of the provincial Liberal Party during the 1986 election when Grant Devine, easily one of the 5 worst Premiers in Canada in the last 50 years, and Allan Blakeney, probably one of the 5 best Premiers in the last 50 years ran against each other.  Blakeney in a rather unfortunate ending to his elected political career, competed with Devine for who could make the most and most expensive election promises.  Goodale, conversely ran as a 'fiscal conservative.' 

After being the sole provincial Liberal to get elected to the legislature, Goodale quit to run again for the  Federal Liberals (he had previously been an M.P from 1974-1979) and narrowly lost in a 3 way race in Regina-Wascana.  Thinking his political career was over, he returned to law and became either a Vice President or Director with a large insurance firm.

James Flaherty had been a Finance Minister with both the Mike Harris and Ernie Eves governments, though he was dropped by Eves.

Joe "Everything that goes right in Canada is due to our government, while everything that goes wrong is due to foreign issues beyond our control" Oliver's background is well known. And hopefully he will also be quickly forgotten.

[RogueBeaver]

While we're talking about finance ministers, Adam, why is Justin recruiting an outsider when he has Goodale/Brison/McCallum/Freeland?

[136or142]

While we're talking about finance ministers, Adam, why is Justin recruiting an outsider when he has Goodale/Brison/McCallum/Freeland?

I don't believe Bill Morneau would be Finance Minister.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP hasn't won Oshawa since 1990

They have a really good chance this time around. We all know how it went NDP by a surprisingly comfortable margin in the last provincial.

Yes, and they're practically a shoe-in to win it this time if polls hold.

[King of Kensington]

Noah Richler to run for the NDP in St. Paul's

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/08/noah-richler-to-run-for-ndp-in-toronto-riding.html

[RogueBeaver]

Consortium debate update: Oct. 7, 8-10 (FR), Oct. 8 6:30-8 (EN). Mulcair/Trudeau/May for both, Duceppe for French.

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Adams will be the Grit nominee in Eglinton-Lawrence.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like Adams will be the Grit nominee in Eglinton-Lawrence.

Tory hold. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Adams will be the Grit nominee in Eglinton-Lawrence.

Tory hold. 

Yup. Especially with the NDP eating into Liberal numbers.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP might as well make a semi-serious play for Eglinton-Lawrence.  Maybe find a Toronto version of Jeff Itcush or something. 

[Poirot]

I got a survey from Angus Reid forum about politics. It started with voting intention and then asked all kind of things like associate adjectives with the party leaders, rank in order policies on some topics (like environment, health care, help to families), the most important issue, agreement on statements about each party. It took me half an hour. At the end they asked if the voting intention changed. I don't knoe if the result will come out in the media soon. It was so long a newspaper can't report on all the questions.

[lilTommy]

Forum Poll: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/309/new-seat-allocation-favours-conservative-minority-harper-approval-up

NDP - 32% (-)
CPC - 32% (+5)
LPC - 26% (-3)

"In vote-rich Ontario, the three parties are essentially tied (Conservative - 32%, Liberal - 33%, NDP - 31%), while in Quebec the NDP have a slight lead (29%) over the Conservatives (26%), while the Liberals (23%) and the Bloc trail (18%). In Atlantic Canada, the three parties are tied (Conservatives - 32%, Liberals- 29%, NDP - 33%), while in Alberta, the Conservatives dominate (54%) and the NDP are at half this level (28%). The NDP is dominant in BC (41%), followed by the Liberals (29%) and Conservatives (23%). In the prairies, the Conservatives (41%) and NDP (42%) are tied.
More than a quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP this time around (27%) and this is twice the proportion which will switch between other parties."

[Boston Bread]

The overall forum poll numbers seem realistic, but the regional numbers are extreme outliers. While I could see a trend towards the NDP in the prairies and an Atlantic Grit decline, this is really sudden. Even more dubious is the trend is towards the CPC in Quebec.

[King of Kensington]

I also think Ontario isn't likely to remain a pretty much three way split.  The NDP is likely to pull ahead and the Liberals drop down to the mid-to-high 20s if the NDP keeps performing well in the polls. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Atlantic and Prairie subsamples are always questionable because they are so small (and in places that are politically diverse; not a good combo).

[Krago]

In light of Sandra Pupatello's recent announcement/temper tantrum that she's quitting her job at the Windsor Essex Economic Development Corporation (WEEDC), Mainstreet Research did a poll for Windsor West.  They matched up NDP incumbent Brian Masse against both Pupatello and former Windsor Mayor Eddie Francis as potential Liberal candidates, and showed him leading both by a narrow margin (1-2%). 

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/will-she-do-it-pupatello-has-a-chance-against-masse-suggests-poll

Gotta love those graphs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I thought Eddie Francis was a Tory?

[Mr. Morden]

I asked a version of this question back when the Liberals were the ones competing for the polling lead: If the Conservatives get a plurality of seats, but NDP+Liberal is a majority, is there any chance that the Liberals will prop up an NDP minority government, or are the Liberals bound to let whoever gets a plurality of seats form the government?

[2952-0-0]

I asked a version of this question back when the Liberals were the ones competing for the polling lead: If the Conservatives get a plurality of seats, but NDP+Liberal is a majority, is there any chance that the Liberals will prop up an NDP minority government, or are the Liberals bound to let whoever gets a plurality of seats form the government?

I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

[136or142]

Insights West/Dogwood Initiative second round of polling in B.C ridings

Found via twtter link to pundit's guide.

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/insights-west-polling-july?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonvazBZKXonjHpfsX56uskW6OylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ARcRnI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFTbfBMbNo1bgPWRk%3D

Candidates names were mentioned.

North Vancouver
Liberal 25%
Conservative 24%
NDP 19%
Green 11%

South Okanagan-West Kootenay
NDP 44%
Conservative 20%
Liberal 9%
Green 5%

Vancouver South
Liberal 27%
NDP 21%
Conservative 17%
Green 3%

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Liberal 23%
Conservative 22%
NDP 19%
Green 9%

[politicallefty]

I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

In that case, I think it probably depends on where each party ends up in the seat count. If the Conservatives end up at 160+, it might be particularly nasty to dislodge them from power. I think the Conservatives will probably need to be held under 150 seats, regardless of where the other parties stand. Of course, this is all a big guess considering the uncharted territory we're in in terms of Canadian politics (and I don't dare underestimate the volatility of the average Canadian voter).

[136or142]

I doubt the Liberals will allow the Conservatives to continue governing. Their campaign will have been all about replacing Harper with a fresh start, and Justin will likely get defenestrated by his caucus who would be fearful of the same fate as their UK cousins. And besides, the Liberals and NDP will have both gained seats. There is no popular mandate for the only party which lost seats to govern, at least from the popular perspective.

In that case, I think it probably depends on where each party ends up in the seat count. If the Conservatives end up at 160+, it might be particularly nasty to dislodge them from power. I think the Conservatives will probably need to be held under 150 seats, regardless of where the other parties stand. Of course, this is all a big guess considering the uncharted territory we're in in terms of Canadian politics (and I don't dare underestimate the volatility of the average Canadian voter).

I think it would also depend on their share of the vote.  If the Conservatives get 150+ seats (you said 160) but only get 33% or so of the vote, it would be difficult for them to declare themselves the 'clear winner' even if they do win 40 seats or so more than the second party.

[RogueBeaver]

Seat count is what matters, period.

[MaxQue]

Seat count is what matters, period.

Not so sure. If the seat count and the vote count has two different winners, I could see Liberals trying to get a deal.