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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  18-29 Voting Patterns: 2004-2012
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Author Topic: 18-29 Voting Patterns: 2004-2012  (Read 1077 times)
Great Society
progressive85
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« on: May 20, 2013, 08:15:11 pm »

We now have data for 18-29 year olds for five election cycles.  Let's take a look at key states to see how young people voted:

2004
Arizona: Bush, 50-48
Colorado: Kerry, 51-47
Florida: Kerry, 58-41
Georgia: Bush, 52-47
Indiana: Bush, 52-47
Iowa: Kerry, 53-46
Michigan: Kerry, 55-43
Minnesota: Kerry, 55-43
Mississippi: Kerry, 63-37
Missouri: Kerry, 51-48
Montana: Bush, 52-43
Nevada: Kerry, 56-42
New Hampshire: Kerry, 57-43
New Mexico: Bush, 50-49
North Carolina: Kerry, 56-43
Ohio: Kerry, 56-42
Pennsylvania: Kerry, 60-39
South Carolina: Bush, 51-48
Texas: Bush, 59-41
Virginia: Kerry, 54-46
Wisconsin: Kerry, 57-41
Senate- Florida (Castor vs. Martinez): Castor, 57-41
Generic House Ballot: 55-44 Democratic

2006

Generic House Ballot: 60-38 Democratic
Senate - Arizona (Kyl vs. Pederson): Pederson, 55-40
Senate - Connecticut (Lieberman vs. Lamont): Lamont, 50-40
Senate - Missouri (Talent vs. McCaskill): McCaskill, 49-48
Senate - Montana (Burns vs. Tester): Tester, 56-44
Senate - Nevada (Ensign vs. Carter): Carter, 49-47
Senate - Ohio (DeWine vs. Brown): Brown, 57-43
Senate - Pennsylvania (Santorum vs. Casey): Casey, 68-32
Senate - Tennessee (Corker vs. Ford): Ford, 51-49
Senate - Texas (Hutchison vs. Radnofsky): Hutchison, 51-46
Senate - Virginia (Allen vs. Webb): Webb, 52-48

2008

Nationwide: Obama, 66-32
Arizona: Obama, 52-48
Arkansas: Tied, 49-49
Florida: Obama, 61-37
Georgia: McCain, 51-48
Indiana: Obama, 63-35
Iowa: Obama, 61-36
Kansas: Obama, 51-47
Kentucky: Obama, 51-48
Louisiana: McCain, 49-48
Michigan: Obama, 68-29
Minnesota: Obama, 65-34
Mississippi: Obama, 56-43
Missouri: Obama, 59-39
Montana: Obama, 61-37
Nebraska: Obama, 54-43
Nevada: Obama, 67-31
New Hampshire: Obama, 61-37
New Mexico: Obama, 71-27
North Carolina: Obama, 74-26
North Dakota: Obama, 51-47
Ohio: Obama, 61-36
Pennsylvania: Obama, 65-35
South Carolina: Obama, 55-44
South Dakota: Obama, 50-49
Tennessee: Obama, 55-43
Texas: Obama, 54-45
Virginia: Obama, 60-39
Wisconsin: Obama, 64-35

Senate - Alaska: Begich, 54-39
Senate - Georgia: Chambliss, 47-46
Senate - Kentucky: Lunsford, 56-44
Senate - Minnesota: Franken, 50-35
Senate - Mississippi (1): Tied, 50-50
Senate - Mississippi (2): Musgrove, 55-45
Senate - New Hampshire: Shaheen, 57-39
Senate - New Mexico: Udall, 72-27
Senate - North Carolina: Hagan, 71-24
Senate - South Carolina: Conley, 51-49
Senate - Texas: Cornyn, 51-46
Senate - Virginia: Warner, 71-26

House Generic Ballot: Democratic, 63-34

Findings:

Obama obviously did really well, winning the red states of Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi (yes again), Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

Once again, North Carolina is solid blue (from 56% Kerry to 74% Obama).  Senator Hagan won 71% of the vote.

South Carolina is a swing state in both the Presidential and Senate races, with Democrats winning both.

Notice that Georgia is still Republican.  It's showing no signs of becoming less red and other states in the South are bluer than Georgia is- Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina.

Mississippi's blue lean is striking, even in the two Senate races in MS, Democrats won one outright and tied in the other.

As for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, they continue to stay very blue and would have no longer been considered swing states.

2010

The real test of young people's Democratic loyalty would come in 2010, a referendum on President Obama, who won in a landslide two years before.  Did they turn against the President or come out to support him, defying the national trend?

Generic House Ballot: Democratic, 55-42

Senate - Arkansas: Boozman (R), 51-40
Senate - Florida: Rubio (R), 36-33-31
Senate - Illinois: Giannoulias (D), 59-33
Senate - Indiana: Coats (R), 55-42
Senate - Iowa: Grassley (R), 64-35
Senate - Kentucky: Conway (D), 51-48
Senate - Missouri: Carnahan (D), 51-44
Senate - Nevada: Reid (D), 59-29
Senate - New Hampshire: Hodes (D), 51-46
Senate - Ohio: Fisher (D), 49-45
Senate - Pennsylvania: Sestak (D), 61-39
Senate - Wisconsin: Feingold (D), 53-46

Governor - Arizona: Brewer (R), 48-46
Governor - Florida: Sink (D), 59-39
Governor - Iowa: Branstad (R), 50-46
Governor - Nevada: Reid (D), 63-29
Governor - Ohio: Strickland (D), 53-43
Governor - Pennsylvania: Onorato (D), 55-45
Governor - South Carolina: Sheheen (D), 58-40
Governor - Texas: White (D), 51-46
Governor - Wisconsin: Barrett (D), 55-45

While you can see that there was a trend towards the Republicans, it wasn't by a lot.  Democrats still lead on the House ballot by 12 points.

In the Senate races, Democrats hold onto IL, PA, and WI and actually pick up seats in KY, MO, NH, and OH.  They lose AR, but still make a net gain of 3 seats.

So there was no backlash, but instead, support of Obama's policies.

Democrats did even better in the governor's races, picking up Texas, South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida.

This is the fourth consecutive cycle which shows a consistent Democratic voting pattern in the key battleground state of Florida.  In this analysis, Florida would be a blue state.

2012

President - Nationwide: Obama, 60-37
Arizona: Obama, 66-32
Florida: Obama, 66-32
Indiana: Romney, 49-46
Iowa: Obama, 56-40
Michigan: Obama, 63-35
Missouri: Obama, 58-39
New Hampshire: Obama, 62-34
Nevada: Obama, 68-30
North Carolina: Obama, 67-32
Ohio: Obama, 63-35
Virginia: Obama, 61-36
Wisconsin: Obama, 60-37

Obama does lose Indiana, but would have not had to worry about North Carolina, which is still very Democratic.

He is above 60% in FL, PA, OH, VA, and NC.

Missouri is also a swing state again and Obama wins a little less than 60% there in both 2008 and 2012.

This would have been considered another landslide for Obama (look at the popular vote).

Democrats once again win the down-ballot races:

Senate - Missouri: McCaskill, 69-25
Senate - Virginia: Kaine, 63-37
Senate - Ohio: Brown, 64-34
Senate - Wisconsin: Baldwin, 58-39
Senate - Indiana: Donnelly, 49-41
Senate - Arizona: Carmona, 62-38
Senate - Nevada: Berkley, 60-32

Governor - NC: Perdue, 56-40

AZ gets bluer in 2012.  Both President Obama and Richard Carmona are over 60% here.

So for the past five cycles, young voters stayed Democratic.  Not even in the Republican year of 2010, did they sway away that much. 

Time will tell if the electoral map will be bluer as we move forward into the century, but it looks like there is a very real, noticeable trend.

Today's swing states (Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina) will get likely much bluer as time goes on and they might not even be considered swing states anymore.

Other states like Arizona, South Carolina, Missouri, and Texas will probably still be Republican-leaning, but much less so.

Georgia, unlike as is predicted by many, really does not show any signs of becoming bluer.  It is consistently red throughout the last eight years among young voters.

Pennsylvania, which many say is getting redder, is only getting bluer.

New Mexico and Nevada, and very likely Colorado (there was no exit poll data available there) are no longer as purple, and more blue.

What does all of this mean?  With the map getting bluer, Democrats will probably have an advantage.  There would still be red states, but there are fewer of them.

It is also important to know that in 2000 Gore only narrowly won young voters, so these Democratic trends start in 2004 with the unpopularity of the Bush administration and grow stronger in the Obama era.

What's the most striking is that the coastal South will begin to become more Democratic, as we are already seeing, even with older voters, while the interior South remains a Republican region.

North Carolina in particular was the most surprising.  It's on track to become a really blue state.  I guess we've come a long way from Jesse Helms.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2013, 09:31:02 pm »

I saw a map once of the youth vote in the 2008 election. I tried to pull it up but it wouldn't post

Anyway, according to the map, youths in Georgia are more GOP than they are even in states like Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Sorry, but as a young person who lives in Georgia, I find this very very hard to believe. Sure, young people in GA are probably still more Republican than in most states, but not that Republican. I smell bad exit polling.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2013, 09:58:00 pm »

I saw a map once of the youth vote in the 2008 election. I tried to pull it up but it wouldn't post

Anyway, according to the map, youths in Georgia are more GOP than they are even in states like Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Sorry, but as a young person who lives in Georgia, I find this very very hard to believe. Sure, young people in GA are probably still more Republican than in most states, but not that Republican. I smell bad exit polling.

Sample size issues perhaps?
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Sol
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2013, 06:21:20 am »

A small nitpick: Perdue wasn't the Democratic candidate in last years gubernatorial election. It was Walter Dalton.

I suspect Georgia's potential as a swing state comes less from the trends of the young, and more from the increase in the state's minority population.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2013, 07:26:43 am »

I posted on this topic on the 2016 board, in the context of the recent 2016 polling.  There's been a big shift in the 2000s, especially from 2004 to 2008, in terms of the polarization between young and old:



The early general election polling for 2016 shows the age polarization decreasing somewhat, with many polls showing Clinton doing worse among the 30-45 age group than among 65+, for example.  This suggests to me that some of the age polarization in 2008 and 2012 may have come from the Democratic nominee being a black.  In 2016, it's possible that we'll see something of a reversion, a bit closer to 2004 levels of age polarization.
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