Oregon and Washington...THEIR FUTURE!!!

[PJ]

Within the next 30 years, do you think these two states will become more solid dem, almost like NY or VT, or become bellwether states. Or the boring answer: they stay the same.

[lincolnwall]

Unless there is a party realignment, they will be consistently Dem. Oregon could be very close in a GOP wave year though.

[Asian Nazi]

Unless the GOP can start beating the Dems in Northern suburbs again, these two states will continue trending Democrat.  Here in Washington, the Asian and Hispanic populations are expected to continue to grow too. 

[TDAS04]

Stay the same, or trend slightly Democratic.

[Blue3]

They're already solid Dem, when was the last time either was seriously contested in a presidential election?

[TDAS04]

They're already solid Dem, when was the last time either was seriously contested in a presidential election?

Oregon was quite close in 2000, although that was mainly due to Nader's strong performance.

[PJ]

They're already solid Dem, when was the last time either was seriously contested in a presidential election?

Gore only received 46% of the vote in 2000 in OR, and Kerry only won OR by a 3% margin in 04. WA hasn't been seriously contested for a while now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Both of them have trending D in the past 20 years or so... Washington has always been a little bit more liberal than Oregon though, probably because of more Urban vote and the strength of the Seattle - Bellevue area. They could possibly transform into ultra democratic states like Vermont did, and as of now, there almost unwinnable by republicans, but the future still lies ahead.

[Non Swing Voter]

They will trend like the more diverse New England states, i.e. Connecticut...

The white vote will probably remain split or slightly democrat leaning based on social issues, though Republicans will do ok with upper class whites.  But then when you factor in minorities, it is completely unwinnable for the GOP.

That is essentially why Connecticut is a solid blue state.  Democrats and Republicans split the white vote and Democrats win 80%+ of the minority vote, which is about 1/4 the population.

[TJ in Oregon]

Neither looks particularly good for the GOP in the near future but there are differences.

Washington is Democratic because the GOP can't really contest the increasingly liberal Seattle suburbs. The Democrats don't win by so much that the state total is lopsided but enough that it's hard to imagine the Republicans carrying the state. In order to win Washington, the GOP would need to add some group to its coalition or finding an issue to take back the suburbs with. The Seattle area is just too large a percentage of the state to win without a real base in.

Oregon on the other hand has a more conservative "rest-of-the-state" than Washington and a smaller major city. But, Portland itself is more liberal than Seattle and beyond any real hope of seeing Republican inroads. The GOP is doomed in Oregon outside of a landslide unless the population growth patterns change and the Portland area stops growing faster than the rest of the state. The GOP would need some kind of boom in the eastern part of the state.

[KingSweden]

Keep in mind that Oregon's "rest of the state" is much less populous in proportion to Portland than WA's "rest of the state." Still, GOP in WA's entire base is Eastern WA and areas south of Olympia - the issues that resonate with those base voters are anathema to Seattle suburbs. Rob McKenna was their best chance in years to turn that dynamic around, I'm afraid.

[illegaloperation]

Oregon and Washington are both socially liberal just like states in the Northeast.

Republicans can win them if they ditch the social issues. That means getting rid of "traditional values", anti-abortion, etc.

Of cause we know that that wouldn't happen because the Republicans would risk losing the South.

[Non Swing Voter]

They will trend like the more diverse New England states, i.e. Connecticut...

The white vote will probably remain split or slightly democrat leaning based on social issues, though Republicans will do ok with upper class whites.  But then when you factor in minorities, it is completely unwinnable for the GOP.

That is essentially why Connecticut is a solid blue state.  Democrats and Republicans split the white vote and Democrats win 80%+ of the minority vote, which is about 1/4 the population.

If only Republicans did decent with minorities ... so much would be possible.

Why would minorities vote for Republicans though when Republicans admittedly create voter ID laws to suppress the minority vote, then redistrict with the purpose of packing them into a few districts? 

[illegaloperation]

They will trend like the more diverse New England states, i.e. Connecticut...

The white vote will probably remain split or slightly democrat leaning based on social issues, though Republicans will do ok with upper class whites.  But then when you factor in minorities, it is completely unwinnable for the GOP.

That is essentially why Connecticut is a solid blue state.  Democrats and Republicans split the white vote and Democrats win 80%+ of the minority vote, which is about 1/4 the population.

If only Republicans did decent with minorities ... so much would be possible.

Why would minorities vote for Republicans though when Republicans admittedly create voter ID laws to suppress the minority vote, then redistrict with the purpose of packing them into a few districts? 

They won't and those states would stay blue.

[ottermax]

I've always thought that WA and OR would stay fairly safe for Democrats for awhile, in the same way that we haven't seen some close states like SC, GA, or AZ only vote GOP at the federal and state level. These are all strongly polarized electorates, however, SC, GA, and AZ are rapidly changing demographically, while WA and OR have more static polarization that has developed through years. Missouri might be somewhat similar in terms of urban/rural split.


One thing to note was this past year's election of a very closely split WA Senate, that ended up in GOP control. The balance of power is tight, and I do think that the Rodney Tom style, avoid social issues GOP works well in WA like illegaloperation has said.

Finally, as reiterated, the key in WA is the suburbs (presumably in OR too). I also think that White working class voters are much more Democratic than in other parts of the country. They may barely vote Republican here, but the White working class has not abandoned the Democratic party.

It will take much longer in the PNW for minority votes to have as much power as they will in other regions - maintaining a large enough segment of support from White voters seems critical, and a possible way for the GOP to add new voters without losing enthusiasm from the base.

[DS0816]

These two states will go red if the two major parties realign their parties and brand and go back to the period when Democrats's base states were in the south and the Republicans's base state were in the north. If Alabama and Mississippi switch back to the Ds and Vermont flips back to the Rs, then Washington and Oregon would go along in agreeing with the home state of Peter Shumlin, Patrick Leahy, Bernie Sanders, and ex-Gov. Howard Dean.