bballrox4717
Jr. Member
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.65
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« on: May 19, 2013, 10:10:16 AM » |
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Political cycles are not created equal, you mostly have to look at the coalitions each party has and how stable they are. Nixon and the 70's Democrats did a fine job in creating the coalition that kept Reagan and the Bushs in power. If it weren't for Watergate, Carter wouldn't have become president and Republicans could have controlled the presidency for a lot longer.
The Obama-Clinton coalition is pretty solid at the moment and could easily win in 2016 and make the Nixon-Carter-Reagan comparison moot. I don't believe that political parties get kicked out after two terms because the people get sick of them anyways. The people in power usually do something to deserve it or fail to adapt. Nixon probably could have won if he mastered television the way Kennedy did. The Vietnam War/Civil Rights split the Democratic party enough for Nixon to win. The Watergate fallout and gaffe doomed Ford. The American people wanted a "morally sound" leader after Clinton's scandals. The financial crisis and Obama's historical candidacy doomed McCain. Two of those elections it was close enough to go either way.
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