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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  A Republican Jimmy Carter and Democratic Reagan
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Author Topic: A Republican Jimmy Carter and Democratic Reagan  (Read 3636 times)
emcee0
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« on: May 16, 2013, 10:09:34 pm »

When do you think we will see a Republican President win as a political outsider but end up as a weak and ineffective leader with a collapsed economy, global recession, staggering inflation and disastrous foreign affairs as Jimmy Carter did in 1980? And who will be that strong Democratic challenger like Reagan and beat the incumbent president in a landslide?,and win a or close to 50 state sweep for re-election.

Who will these Candidates be and what year will this take place, and what sorts of events would be taking place in America at this time. Use maps and possibly post your own mini timeline on this page Smiley
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strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2013, 10:12:41 pm »

That already happened:

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emcee0
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2013, 10:15:04 pm »

true:p but when do you think this will happen again in the future?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2013, 10:59:35 pm »
« Edited: May 16, 2013, 11:02:17 pm by Rockefeller »

Several analogues have been drawn between Richard Nixon and Barack Obama on this site.  If these analogues extend to President Obama's successors, a moderate Republican governor could be elected in 2016 (Chris Christie) only to face a stagnating economy and deteriorating foreign relations and be replaced by a charismatic Democratic governor (Andrew Cuomo or Gavin Newsom) in 2020.  Just some food for thought...

The above scenario actually sets up a quite tidy "40 year presidential cycle" with Dubya being our equivalent of Kennedy/Johnson and Clinton representing Eisenhower-type moderate; that makes the FDR/Truman era similar to our Reagan/Bush era with Carter being the "Hoover". 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2013, 11:11:32 pm »

Several analogues have been drawn between Richard Nixon and Barack Obama on this site.  If these analogues extend to President Obama's successors, a moderate Republican governor could be elected in 2016 (Chris Christie) only to face a stagnating economy and deteriorating foreign relations and be replaced by a charismatic Democratic governor (Andrew Cuomo or Gavin Newsom) in 2020.  Just some food for thought...

There have been some comparisons between Carter and Christie.  I think there is some merit to this.  Lots of people across the political spectrum like Christie, but very few love him.  I could see the Republican base abandoning him if the economy faltered.  And if he does win in 2016, he would do it with a very different coalition/EC map than most winning Republicans.  I just don't know if he can get past Clinton, though.

Finally, a Democratic Reagan would have to be someone who is currently a bit too left wing to be taken seriously.  Newsom is a possibility, but Cuomo is way too mainstream and moderate.  Elizabeth Warren is probably the most obvious candidate to advance a Newer Deal, but she would be in her 70's by 2020.
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2013, 11:43:11 pm »

Several analogues have been drawn between Richard Nixon and Barack Obama on this site.  If these analogues extend to President Obama's successors, a moderate Republican governor could be elected in 2016 (Chris Christie) only to face a stagnating economy and deteriorating foreign relations and be replaced by a charismatic Democratic governor (Andrew Cuomo or Gavin Newsom) in 2020.  Just some food for thought...

There have been some comparisons between Carter and Christie.  I think there is some merit to this.  Lots of people across the political spectrum like Christie, but very few love him.  I could see the Republican base abandoning him if the economy faltered.  And if he does win in 2016, he would do it with a very different coalition/EC map than most winning Republicans.  I just don't know if he can get past Clinton, though.

Finally, a Democratic Reagan would have to be someone who is currently a bit too left wing to be taken seriously.  Newsom is a possibility, but Cuomo is way too mainstream and moderate.  Elizabeth Warren is probably the most obvious candidate to advance a Newer Deal, but she would be in her 70's by 2020.

The thing about Reagan though was that even though he style was clearly conservative, his substance was more a mixed bag.  Reagan did raise taxes in California and sign an assault weapons ban as Governor.  If Cuomo could significantly alter his rhetoric to make it strikingly  more liberal, I could see him doing quite well in a Reagan-type mold.  Of course, Reagan has a much more aggressive leadership style than I think Cuomo does.

Moreover, the Democrats may be more apt to pick a Senator as their "Reagan" rather than a governor, as that is their historic predisposition.  In that case, I think that Tim Kaine, Martin Heinrich, Mike Bennett, or Bruce Braley if he can get elected to IA Senate in 2014.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2013, 07:40:49 am »

While I do like the cyclical theory, I think that the watergate scandal opened the gate for Carter to get elected in the first place. 

I'd like to note that FDR would have to be both the Nixon and Reagan of the Democratic resurgance (the democtratic president before that was Wilson, who didn't really do anything to create a winning coalition, he just got lucky with Teddy Roosevelt running as a third party).
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d32123
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2013, 10:13:18 am »

While I do like the cyclical theory, I think that the watergate scandal opened the gate for Carter to get elected in the first place. 

I'd like to note that FDR would have to be both the Nixon and Reagan of the Democratic resurgance (the democtratic president before that was Wilson, who didn't really do anything to create a winning coalition, he just got lucky with Teddy Roosevelt running as a third party).

The cyclical theory looks nice on paper but completely cracks at the seams when put under scrutiny.  You have to really go out of your way to make things fit all nice and tidy. 
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: May 17, 2013, 11:26:58 am »

The question really is whether there will be any surprises between now and the next couple of decades. This is the first time since almost the beginning that we have had 3 presidents in a row get elected and reelected and finish their terms.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #9 on: May 17, 2013, 10:16:30 pm »

The question really is whether there will be any surprises between now and the next couple of decades. This is the first time since almost the beginning that we have had 3 presidents in a row get elected and reelected and finish their terms.

Finish?  We have no confirmation of that.  Clinton and Bush, yes, but we have no idea if Obama will finish his term.  Of course it's likely, but there's no way to know.   
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PJ
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« Reply #10 on: May 17, 2013, 11:15:48 pm »

Continuing on your cycle theory:
2016: Christie vs Biden (This may seem unlikely but I was just trying to finf the most realistic scenario where Christie gets 23 states, Biden gets 25+DC, and Christie wins. These numbers were the same as Carter's and Ford's.
2020: Cuomo vs Christie
2024: Cuomo vs Inhofe
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PJ
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« Reply #11 on: May 17, 2013, 11:17:46 pm »

Crap, I just realized I got the numbers wrong for 2020.
Continuing on your cycle theory:
2016: Christie vs Biden (This may seem unlikely but I was just trying to finf the most realistic scenario where Christie gets 23 states, Biden gets 25+DC, and Christie wins. These numbers were the same as Carter's and Ford's.
2020: Cuomo vs Christie
2024: Cuomo vs Inhofe

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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2013, 08:09:17 am »

The analogy is shaping incredibly well.  FDR-Reagan, Truman-H.W Bush, Eisenhower-Clinton, JFK/LBJ-Bush Jr., Nixon-Obama
(Leave Ford out)

Guesses
Christie-Carter (though Jeb Bush could also play this role), and for Reagan..
Warren will be rather old.  Not sure who the Reagan could be.
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emcee0
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2013, 11:52:52 am »

I was actually thinking that Elizabeth Warren could still be the Reagan, a rather older opponent  and a bit more ideologically extreme for people to initially trust just like Reagan was. Warren would be around 70 but women live longer anyways. As President, Christie would likely be the incompetent moderate who is facing many scandals. Early in the campaign people are wary of trusting Warren, but around possibly before the summer of the campaign there is a major scandal related to the big banks and the FED and Warren surges as a candidate that is a champion for the middle class and absolutely blows up President Christie in the debates and wins an unexpected near landslide. It wouldn't on this being a real life scenario, because you can't count that a women that age would run for President, but that would certainly be one of the most unpredicted political outcomes in American history.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2013, 12:04:54 pm »

I wonder what major events and policies would make this happen.

I am guessing that Christie more or less keeps everything in place and maybe there is a trend towards enforcing Dodd-Frank by 2018 or 2019 and maybe some policy in Syria or Iran backfires in late 2019 and by 2020, there is another market meltdown.  Perhaps President Warren repeals even more tax cuts for the wealthy, makes it much easier to form a union and nationalizes the non-profit health care option into a truly national health insurance option and by the lame duck congress of January 2023, manages to push through a measure to defund the Federal marijuana ban.
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PJ
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2013, 03:11:37 pm »

2028: Cuomo's VP (possibly Newsom) vs Generic R (Rick Perry to make it interesting)
2032: Moderate R (maybe Rubio) vs incumbent D (Newsom) vs Angus King (I)

Incumbent R Marco Rubio vs D Kirsten Gillibrand vs Angus King (I)
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PJ
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2013, 03:12:52 pm »

2036:
2028: Cuomo's VP (possibly Newsom) vs Generic R (Rick Perry to make it interesting)
2032: Moderate R (maybe Rubio) vs incumbent D (Newsom) vs Angus King (I)

Incumbent R Marco Rubio vs D Kirsten Gillibrand vs Angus King (I)
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2013, 10:10:16 am »

Political cycles are not created equal, you mostly have to look at the coalitions each party has and how stable they are. Nixon and the 70's Democrats did a fine job in creating the coalition that kept Reagan and the Bushs in power. If it weren't for Watergate, Carter wouldn't have become president and Republicans could have controlled the presidency for a lot longer.

The Obama-Clinton coalition is pretty solid at the moment and could easily win in 2016 and make the Nixon-Carter-Reagan comparison moot. I don't believe that political parties get kicked out after two terms because the people get sick of them anyways. The people in power usually do something to deserve it or fail to adapt. Nixon probably could have won if he mastered television the way Kennedy did. The Vietnam War/Civil Rights split the Democratic party enough for Nixon to win. The Watergate fallout and gaffe doomed Ford. The American people wanted a "morally sound" leader after Clinton's scandals. The financial crisis and Obama's historical candidacy doomed McCain.  Two of those elections it was close enough to go either way.
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