ICM. The Guardian, 22/2

[minionofmidas]

Those 7 and 11 point thingies are assuming a uniform swing...and I would not assume anything like a uniform swing.

It's simple to calculate using a uniform swing - but, realistically, I expect seats to buck to trend (i.e. Labour holding ultra-marginals but losing relatively safe seats), especially if local factors come into play

I've assumed a uniform swing of 3% on the basis of the ICM poll - but some of those 22 constituencies could stay Labour, while the Tories may pick-up some seats where Labour majorities are greater than 6%

Dave

It all depends how the election pans out exactly...if the election is anything like the last one (by no means a given), then Labour would hold up well in their marginals, where turnout would be high, but would see reduced majorities in seats that are utterly safe anyways, where turnout would be low...that is to say, the Tories are not going to do anywhere as well as a uniform swing would lead you to think.

[minionofmidas]

It was called the Battlemap. I forget the link, too.

[Democratic Hawk]

Lewis,

There's also the issue of tactical voting. It worked against the Conservatives in 1997 and, to a lesser extent, in 2001 because every five Lib Dem voters second preference was for Labour as opposed to only every two for the Tories. Apparently, the split has been reduced to 3-2 in Labour's favour

I think that turnout is most likely to be at its lowest in ultra-safe Labour urban seats. It remains to be seen if the Lib Dems get that parliamentary breakthrough in places like Liverpool where in local elections they can out-vote Labour in all five constituencies (each with a solid Labour majority). Labour's success in holding key marginals will largely boil down to the popularity, or unpopularity, of the incumbent

This election will throw up a few shocks and surprises - but I'm far from certain where such will happen. I'm confident that Labour will hold Durham City (my stamping ground) - but I know it won't be with a 13,500 maj. The issue of all-women shortlists is not playing well with the Labour guy in the street

Dave

P.S. The 7-point and 11-point thingies (Tory bench-marks), where just something I recall reading but I can't remember the source

[Democratic Hawk]

Those 7 and 11 point thingies are assuming a uniform swing...and I would not assume anything like a uniform swing.

It's simple to calculate using a uniform swing - but, realistically, I expect seats to buck to trend (i.e. Labour holding ultra-marginals but losing relatively safe seats), especially if local factors come into play

I've assumed a uniform swing of 3% on the basis of the ICM poll - but some of those 22 constituencies could stay Labour, while the Tories may pick-up some seats where Labour majorities are greater than 6%

Dave

It all depends how the election pans out exactly...if the election is anything like the last one (by no means a given), then Labour would hold up well in their marginals, where turnout would be high, but would see reduced majorities in seats that are utterly safe anyways, where turnout would be low...that is to say, the Tories are not going to do anywhere as well as a uniform swing would lead you to think.

I get your drift because even a small swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories in 2001 should have brought them a higher dividend than an overall net gain of one seat. In the context of 2001, their best gain was probably Newark where the Labour incumbent got into trouble over election expenses

Dave

[Silent Hunter]

Or Romford- biggest Lab-Tory swing in the country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting... AnyThingYouWantGuv? is swinging into line with the other pollsters... yet again the Labour vote is between 40% and 37%...

[afleitch]

We are currently in 'Phoney War' mode with regards to the election. When it is called, Labour's support will fall, but we won't know who benefits- whether Lid Dem or Tory. The most important aspect is GOTV. We all know people who would answer Labour if asked who they would vote for, but who say that they probably won't vote. I've been mulling over this and throwning minor parties into the equation I really do think that a Labour majority of around 20 could appear, perhaps even a hung parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We are currently in 'Phoney War' mode with regards to the election. When it is called, Labour's support will fall, but we won't know who benefits- whether Lid Dem or Tory. The most important aspect is GOTV. We all know people who would answer Labour if asked who they would vote for, but who say that they probably won't vote. I've been mulling over this and throwning minor parties into the equation I really do think that a Labour majority of around 20 could appear, perhaps even a hung parliament.

We don't know that Labour support will fall during the campaign. Historically the incumbent party has tended to rise during the campaign (the main exception was 2001).
Also note that all polls now come adjusted for turnout.

[minionofmidas]

Or Romford- biggest Lab-Tory swing in the country.

True...(also...what`s it called? The seat right next to it? Upminster?) but it reflected a somewhat different electorate from most marginals, it hadn't really been targeted by the Tory top brass, and IIRC - a big if in this case - turnout didn't hold up either.

[Democratic Hawk]

We are currently in 'Phoney War' mode with regards to the election. When it is called, Labour's support will fall, but we won't know who benefits- whether Lid Dem or Tory. The most important aspect is GOTV. We all know people who would answer Labour if asked who they would vote for, but who say that they probably won't vote. I've been mulling over this and throwning minor parties into the equation I really do think that a Labour majority of around 20 could appear, perhaps even a hung parliament.

We don't know that Labour support will fall during the campaign. Historically the incumbent party has tended to rise during the campaign (the main exception was 2001).
Also note that all polls now come adjusted for turnout.

Labour might just deliver a vote winning budget yet

The swings against Labour may yet be in their heartland and, thus, have little effect other than to reduce thumping majorities, while the vote in the marginals holds up pretty well

The fact of the matter is that most people are better off now than they were 8 years ago, and as I've said earlier, people feel economically secure. Low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates - yes it seems Labour are managing capitalism better than the Tories

Dave

[Silent Hunter]

Or Romford- biggest Lab-Tory swing in the country.

True...(also...what`s it called? The seat right next to it? Upminster?) but it reflected a somewhat different electorate from most marginals, it hadn't really been targeted by the Tory top brass, and IIRC - a big if in this case - turnout didn't hold up either.

Yes, it's Upminster.

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently, I read in The Observer on Sunday that the Mori poll in the Financial Times, which had Labour on 39% and the Tories on 37% only included those certain to vote; but allowing for those not certain to vote Labour led by 15

It would seem that Labour's biggest battle lies in getting its 'disaffected' supporters back on board, rather than seeing them shift to the Tories or the Lib Dems in significant numbers

There was a further poll in the Independent on Sunday, which has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 34%. The same poll had Labour leading the Tories by 46% to 31% if Gordon Brown were Labour Leader

It would seem that the Chancellor is Labour's biggest asset

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Since this seems to be the UK Poll thread, I've found details of a new poll on www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Populus, The Times, 4 – 6 March, 2005 with Labour on 39%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Lib Dems on 20%

National Prediction: LAB majority 142

Party                  2001                           2005

CON          32.71%     165              32.0%      169 (+4)
LAB           42.05%     403              39.0%      394 (-9)
LIB DEM    18.84%       51              20.0%       54  (+3)

Of course, this figures assume no tactical voting and are based on a straight swing of 1% from Lab to Con since 2001

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Once again the pattern of steady Labour support and yo-yoing Tory/LD support is showing itself. Weird, eh?

This poll causes some severe disapointment with Tory partisans, btw

[Democratic Hawk]

New NOP poll in The Independent (15/3/05):

Labour 39% (down 3 on last month); Tories 34% (up four - roll-eyes) and Lib Dems 19%

This would result in (on a straight 2% swing from Labour to the Tories since 2001):

Labour 383 seats, Tories 183 seats and the Liberal Democrats 51 seats - a Labour majority of 120

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New NOP poll in The Independent (15/3/05):

Labour 39% (down 3 on last month); Tories 34% (up four - roll-eyes) and Lib Dems 19%

This would result in (on a straight 2% swing from Labour to the Tories since 2001):

Labour 383 seats, Tories 183 seats and the Liberal Democrats 51 seats - a Labour majority of 120

Dave

The Labour vote is getting weirdly stable (it's about 39% in pretty much all polls)...
Changes seem to be within MoE

[Democratic Hawk]

New NOP poll in The Independent (15/3/05):

Labour 39% (down 3 on last month); Tories 34% (up four - roll-eyes) and Lib Dems 19%

This would result in (on a straight 2% swing from Labour to the Tories since 2001):

Labour 383 seats, Tories 183 seats and the Liberal Democrats 51 seats - a Labour majority of 120

Dave

The Labour vote is getting weirdly stable (it's about 39% in pretty much all polls)...
Changes seem to be within MoE

I agree, the Labour % does seem to be stabilising and, at this stage, it's a good sign. It remains to be seen if the Budget stalls, or better-still steals, the 'Opportunists' thunder

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He usually delivers the goods come budget time