Labrador by-election and results thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's the day.

Blog post with poll maps (including the 2005 by-election!) and demographic maps: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/05/labrador-by-election.html


Polls close at 7 Eastern.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum Poll conducted Saturday:

Lib: 45 (-15)
Cons: 31 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+14)

Wow, last minute swing to the NDP. Not enough obviously, but Tommy campaigning there is making an impact. The party has to show a good performance there to save face I think. If the Liberals can't break 50%, than that is a loss for them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum Poll conducted Saturday:

Lib: 45 (-15)
Cons: 31 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+14)

Wow, last minute swing to the NDP. Not enough obviously, but Tommy campaigning there is making an impact. The party has to show a good performance there to save face I think. If the Liberals can't break 50%, than that is a loss for them.

Should get a reasonable second with momentum like that, right?

I wouldn't bet on it, but here's hoping. If anything the Tories will over perform, due to perceived under polling in Tory friendly Aboriginal areas (yes, you read that right... it's Labrador)

[Hatman 🍁]

We shouldn't be using the joke pollster, but yeah, I do expect a big Grit win.

Heh. No choice, they are the only pollster that does by-elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting colour you've chosen for the Libertarians. Aren't they light green?

[Hatman 🍁]

Narrowing a bit. Maybe the NDP can catch up? Not likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout is 54% and counting. Labrador seems to have high turnouts for by-elections, sometimes higher than general elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

As I said in my blog, a sub-50 results would be a loss for the Liberals. They should've done better.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's not a Tory talking point if you make the decision before the election. Let's face it, 48.2% is an historically bad number of the Liberals in Labrador. It's their sixth worst showing of all time.  Perhaps I was even being generous, considering the average result for the Liberals in Labrador is 60.2%!

Of course, the Tories lost by just losing, and the NDP lost by not gaining from last time. The only winner? The Libertarians who got on the map for the first time ever.