Labrador by-election and results thread
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Author Topic: Labrador by-election and results thread  (Read 3771 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« on: May 12, 2013, 11:24:06 PM »
Today's the day.

Blog post with poll maps (including the 2005 by-election!) and demographic maps: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/05/labrador-by-election.html


Polls close at 7 Eastern.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2013, 06:51:40 AM »
Forum Poll conducted Saturday:

Lib: 45 (-15)
Cons: 31 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+14)

Wow, last minute swing to the NDP. Not enough obviously, but Tommy campaigning there is making an impact. The party has to show a good performance there to save face I think. If the Liberals can't break 50%, than that is a loss for them.
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2013, 07:59:56 AM »
Quote from: Hatman on May 13, 2013, 06:51:40 AM
Forum Poll conducted Saturday:

Lib: 45 (-15)
Cons: 31 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+14)

Wow, last minute swing to the NDP. Not enough obviously, but Tommy campaigning there is making an impact. The party has to show a good performance there to save face I think. If the Liberals can't break 50%, than that is a loss for them.

Should get a reasonable second with momentum like that, right?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2013, 08:13:46 AM »
Quote from: You kip if you want to... on May 13, 2013, 07:59:56 AM
Quote from: Hatman on May 13, 2013, 06:51:40 AM
Forum Poll conducted Saturday:

Lib: 45 (-15)
Cons: 31 (+2)
NDP: 24 (+14)

Wow, last minute swing to the NDP. Not enough obviously, but Tommy campaigning there is making an impact. The party has to show a good performance there to save face I think. If the Liberals can't break 50%, than that is a loss for them.

Should get a reasonable second with momentum like that, right?

I wouldn't bet on it, but here's hoping. If anything the Tories will over perform, due to perceived under polling in Tory friendly Aboriginal areas (yes, you read that right... it's Labrador)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2013, 08:15:26 AM »
Excellent blog post Hatman Smiley
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2013, 08:31:30 AM »
We shouldn't be using the joke pollster, but yeah, I do expect a big Grit win.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2013, 08:41:34 AM »
Quote from: RogueBeaver on May 13, 2013, 08:31:30 AM
We shouldn't be using the joke pollster, but yeah, I do expect a big Grit win.

Heh. No choice, they are the only pollster that does by-elections.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2013, 06:11:09 PM »
First poll in: Jones 26, Libertarian 1.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2013, 06:17:47 PM »
Second poll: Jones 46, Penashue/Borlase 5.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2013, 06:20:11 PM »
5/91, 183-65-11.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2013, 06:23:53 PM »
10/91, 349-107-28.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2013, 06:25:57 PM »
11/91

Yvonne Jones (LPC) 363 votes (71.3%)
Peter Penashue (CPC) 110 votes (21.6%)
Harry Borlase (NDP) 30 votes (5.9%)
Norman Andrews (Libert.) 6 votes (1.2%)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2013, 06:31:09 PM »
Interesting colour you've chosen for the Libertarians. Aren't they light green?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2013, 06:32:01 PM »
VOCM projects Jones the winner. Congrats Grits.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2013, 06:34:03 PM »
Quote from: Hatman on May 13, 2013, 06:31:09 PM
Interesting colour you've chosen for the Libertarians. Aren't they light green?

True. I was thinking of American ones (usually represented in yellow, but it was too hard to read), so it was the first similar color which came to my mind.

VOCM?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2013, 06:35:02 PM »
NL news agency.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2013, 06:38:40 PM »
Jones 956 (59.2%), Penashue 418 (25.9%), Borlase 232 (14.4%).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2013, 06:43:50 PM »
31/91

Yvonne Jones (LPC) 1822 votes (54.9%)
Peter Penashue (CPC) 819 votes (24.7%)
Harry Borlase (NDP) 665 votes (20.0%)
Norman Andrews (Libert.) 14 votes (0.4%)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2013, 06:44:55 PM »
Narrowing a bit. Maybe the NDP can catch up? Not likely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2013, 06:50:31 PM »
40/91: Jones 2494 (52.5%), Penashue 1248 (26.3%), Borlase 987 (20.8%).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2013, 06:55:03 PM »
50/91: Jones 3230 (52.5%), Penashue 1751 (28.4%), Borlase 1153 (18.7%).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2013, 06:55:48 PM »
50/91

Yvonne Jones (LPC) 3230 votes (52.5%)
Peter Penashue (CPC) 1751 votes (28.4%)
Harry Borlase (NDP) 1153 votes (18.7%)
Norman Andrews (Libert.) 23 votes (0.4%)

Turnout looks like it will be around 55%.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2013, 07:02:57 PM »
60/91: Jones 3771 (50.7%), Penashue 2207 (29.6%), Borlase 1435 (19.3%).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2013, 07:07:18 PM »
CBC projects a Liberal win.
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adma
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« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2013, 07:21:04 PM »
75 out of 91 polls in, NDP's back above 20%, and 46% turnout so far: pretty good for a byelection...
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