Labrador by-election and results thread (user search)
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  Labrador by-election and results thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Labrador by-election and results thread  (Read 3770 times)
cp
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Posts: 1,612
United Kingdom


« on: May 14, 2013, 10:21:58 AM »

As I said in my blog, a sub-50 results would be a loss for the Liberals. They should've done better.

It's a touch out of character for you to paraphrase Tory talking points, Earl Wink

In all seriousness, I think putting that qualifier on the results is somewhat arbitrary, and perhaps a bit misleading. 48.2% of the vote and a 16 point lead on the runner up is a hefty margin by any estimation, especially in a FPTP three-way.

Case in point, the turnout yesterday was significantly higher than in the 2011 election (60% vs 51%), which means that the Liberals actually accumulated more votes this time than Penashue did in 2011; Penashue lost about 250 votes compared to 2011; The NDP vote increased by about 150, but dropped about 1%.

The Liberals' tally last night was roughly in line with historical averages for the riding, adjusted for incumbency. Penashue actually underperformed compared with Tory returns in 2006 (the last election where the Tories were competitive).
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