Last State to ratify marriage equality.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Barring Federal intervention, which state will be the last to recognize and legalize marriage equality? And When?

For me, I think it will be Oklahoma on or after the 2032 Presidential Elections.

The Mormons, from what I can tell, are evolving faster on the issue as a group so I don't think Utah will be the last state.  Plus, Utah is conservative, but it is not part of the vast right-wing conspiracy, as it were.

Mississippi had a surprising swing towards Obama in 2012, so that's out, IMO.

Arkansas still has some Democratic roots who friends with the Clintons, so scratch Arkansas.

Tennessee probably still has some who are friends with Al Gore, but I think they'll be a late state, but not in the final two.

Georgia has Atlanta.  Texas has Dallas and Houston.  Kansas is more sensibly conservative than Alabama or Oklahoma.

I think it will come down to Alabama and Oklahoma with Alabama going before Oklahoma.

[badgate]

Definitely agree with you in Utah, but I think Idaho would give OK a run for its money. For me, it's between those two. But I'm going to guess Oklahoma because it would be pretentious of me to say Idaho, having never actually visited the Potato State.

[7,052,770]

Assuming blacks get fully onboard within the next decade or so, I would say Utah or Idaho.

[DC Al Fine]

Oklahoma, Utah or Idaho. Most likely one is Oklahoma.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alabama, Mississippi or Oklahoma.

But I'm pretty sure it will be nationalized in some way before they have a chance to.

[Holmes]

Utah.

[Thomas D]

Mississippi.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If one thinks of ratification as being amending the State Constitution to strip out language no longer in force thanks to the Supreme Court. I'll guess Alabama sometime in the 23rd Century.  Without a Supreme Court ruling, Alabama might get to it sometime late this century, but more likely early in the 22nd.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Assuming the SCOTUS lets all states decide for themselves and never revisits the issue, probably Mississippi.

[7,052,770]

If blacks nearly universally support it by 2020 or so, it will only take 1/6th support from Mississippi's white population.  That shouldn't be a problem by 2020 or so.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It'll be a small one. Idaho fits the bill. Heavily white male, and without any big urban centers to really push the issue.

I think it'll likely be nationalized, either by the Supreme Court or by consensus during a moderate Republican Admin. The Republicans would likely block it during a Dem administration, but the push of the public might work better under someone like Christie.

[Maxwell]

Alabama

[LastVoter]

It'll be a small one. Idaho fits the bill. Heavily white male, and without any big urban centers to really push the issue.

I think it'll likely be nationalized, either by the Supreme Court or by consensus during a moderate Republican Admin. The Republicans would likely block it during a Dem administration, but the push of the public might work better under someone like Christie.

I think Idaho is more likely to support it than Alabama(White & very southern), since North Idaho is pretty socially liberal & Boise is becoming "heavier" in the state.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Oklahoma or Alabama no doubt.


As several have pointed out, mormons might be solidly Republican, (and I know prop 8 and stuff) but they're more educated than their evangilical brothers, and they like to not be too out of the mainstream. So Utah, WY, or Idaho will not be last. 

[morgieb]

Mississippi.

[Old Man Svensson]

Not Wyoming. That alone makes me happy.

[TDAS04]

Mississippi.  

[nclib]

Mississippi, Alabama, or Oklahoma.

Mississippi had a surprising swing towards Obama in 2012, so that's out, IMO.

Assuming blacks get fully onboard within the next decade or so, I would say Utah or Idaho.

If blacks nearly universally support it by 2020 or so, it will only take 1/6th support from Mississippi's white population.  That shouldn't be a problem by 2020 or so.

This won't matter unless Dems can get control of the Miss. (or Ala.) legislature.

Southern black support for SSM will rise, and will be above Southern white support, though I doubt it will be near universal anytime soon.

[publicunofficial]

Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, or Utah.

[Zioneer]

Oklahoma or Alabama no doubt.


As several have pointed out, mormons might be solidly Republican, (and I know prop 8 and stuff) but they're more educated than their evangilical brothers, and they like to not be too out of the mainstream. So Utah, WY, or Idaho will not be last.  

This; there's already a small but growing group of Mormons pushing for gay rights (mostly nondiscrimination policies, but many want civil unions, and a few are even okay with same-sex marriage).

And don't forget that the largest city in the state is very gay-friendly and has been so for a decade.

Wyoming might actually be soon-ish, I hear, since there seems to be a libertarian trend over there.

[Ban my account ffs!]

My guess is that it'll long be legalized by the supreme court... and like 40 years down the road, some symbolic effort will be made by some deep south state to remove the amendment to the state constitution or from the statutes... and there'll be a string of conservatives who object, a la Ken Cuccinelli...

Southern constitutions do seem to be garbage bins full of all sorts of backwards crap that never gets taken out because it is somehow tradition that warrants keeping...

[free my dawg]

Probably Oklahoma or Alabama. Mormons are slowly trending towards gay marriage.

If black voters start trending towards gay marriage, Mississippi could turn in the mid-to-late 2020s. But Alabama or Oklahoma aren't going to pass gay marriage any time soon.

[old timey villain]

Oklahoma or Alabama no doubt.


As several have pointed out, mormons might be solidly Republican, (and I know prop 8 and stuff) but they're more educated than their evangilical brothers, and they like to not be too out of the mainstream. So Utah, WY, or Idaho will not be last.  

This; there's already a small but growing group of Mormons pushing for gay rights (mostly nondiscrimination policies, but many want civil unions, and a few are even okay with same-sex marriage).

And don't forget that the largest city in the state is very gay-friendly and has been so for a decade.

Wyoming might actually be soon-ish, I hear, since there seems to be a libertarian trend over there.

I agree. Mormons seem to be pretty aware of their outsider status and like to stay in the mainstream in order to win over skeptics. However evangelical Christians, especially in the south, firmly believe that their faith is the right faith. If anybody accuses them of being outdated, then it's everyone else who has the problem. They'll dig their heels in when it comes to gay marriage unless a federal or state law forces them to deal with it.

So I'd say Utah legalizes it before a state like Alabama or Tennessee. However, they're all far from it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alabama, Mississippi or Oklahoma.

But I'm pretty sure it will be nationalized in some way before they have a chance to.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Mississippi only took 130 years to ratify the 13th amendment banning slavery.