New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I was hoping Rand could pull a bit more support than 3%. Nevertheless, very interesting and regardless of who wins the nom, I hope Rubio doesn't just sail to the nomination.

[PolitiJunkie]

2014 House Democratic Pickups

Democrats were able to pick up 14 House seats in the 2014 midterms mainly by targeting swing districts currently occupied by Republicans elected in 2010 in blue or purple states.


Notable House Elections

CA-12: Nancy Pelosi retires! Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MD-5: Steny Hoyer retires! Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
IA-1: Bruce Braley retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MI-14: Gary Peters retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
PA-13: Allyson Schwartz retires after being elected Governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
GA-10: Paul Broun retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Georgia and losing to Herman Cain. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
GA-11: Phil Gingrey retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Georgia and losing to Herman Cain. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
LA-6: Bill Cassidy retires after seeking Republican nomination for U.S. Senate election in Louisiana and losing to Jeff Landry.  Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
WV-2: Shelley Moore Capito retires after being elected to U.S. Senate. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
FL-13: Bill Young, the longest-serving Republican Congressman, announces his retirement. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Pickup
TX-4: 90-year old Ralph Hall announces his retirement. Republican successor elected. Republican Hold
NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo announces his retirement. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Pickup
NJ-3: Jon Runyan loses his seat to the man he beat for it in 2010, John Adler. Democratic Pickup
NJ-6: Frank Pallone retires after seeking Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate election in New Jersey and losing to Cory Booker. Democratic successor elected. Democratic Hold
MN-6: Michele Bachmann retires after losing the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota to incumbent Al Franken. Jim Graves, the man who nearly beat Bachmann for the seat in 2012, wins the seat after beating the Republican nominee, Marcus Bachmann! Democratic Pickup
CA-21: Freshman Representative David Valado loses his bid for reelection to a formidable Democratic challenger. Democratic Pickup
CA-31: Gary Miller loses his seat to Joe Baca, who lost his seat in 2012 after being merged into another Democrat's district. Democratic Pickup
CO-6: Mike Coffman loses his seat to a formidable Democratic challenger in this swing district, one of the most closely targeted seats by the Democrats in 2014. Democratic Pickup
MI-1: Dan Benishek, elected in this swing district during the Republican wave of 2010, loses his seat. Democratic Pickup
NV-3: Joe Heck, elected in this swing district during the Republican wave of 2010, loses his seat. Democratic Pickup
NY-19: Chris Gibson loses his seat to Scott Murphy, the man he defeated in 2010. Democratic Pickup
IL-13: Unpopular freshman Representative Rodney Davis loses his bid for reelection handily to a Democratic challenger. Democratic Pickup
NY-11: Staten Island, still facing serious damage from Hurricane Sandy and largely disapproving of the Republican Congress, elects Michael McMahon, a Democrat defeated in 2010, over incumbent Republican Michael Grimm. Democratic Pickup
NY-23: Unpopular Republican incumbent Tom Reed, first elected in 2010, loses his bid for reelection. Democratic Pickup
VA-2: In a rematch of 2010, former Democratic Representative Glenn Nye defeats incumbent Republican Scott Rigell in one of the closest and most hotly contested house races of 2014. Democratic Pickup

If you would like to know about any other House race in specific, just ask and I'll fill you in.

[PolitiJunkie]

Hey everyone, can I please have some feedback on this so far? By the way, an update is coming soon. I'm just trying to figure out how to go about this next part without jumping the shark too much.

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter V: Scandal!

Excerpt from New York Times Front Page Article on March 19, 2015:

According to a confidential source, Governor Andrew Cuomo and Kerry Kennedy, known as Kerry Kennedy Cuomo until her alleged divorce from Governor Cuomo in 2013, never obtained a divorce. For unknown reasons, the divorce was pulled in early 2006. Governor Cuomo refused to comment on the allegations, but Kennedy spoke candidly: "In late 2005, after we had been separated for over two years and were about to obtain a divorce, Andrew and I decided that it would be in our best interest financially to simply remain separated without officially divorcing, especially in the event that we decided to renew our relationship which, at the time, seemed plausible." Cuomo's lack of an official divorce from Kennedy is the likeliest explanation for his lifestyle of living with his long-term girlfriend, Sandra Lee, but not actually marrying her. Whether or not Sandra Lee knows about Cuomo's shady marital status is unclear at this time.

Though the breaking scandal pales in comparison to some of the recent sex-related or financial scandals that have marred the New York political scene, torrents of criticism have been unleashed against Governor Cuomo, namely for having blatantly lied about his lifestyle and manipulating his marital status for financial gain, all while branding himself as an ethical and fiscally responsible leader.

Finally, on March 22, Cuomo addressed the breaking story:

The allegations against me, while not wholly untrue, have been taken out of context and manipulated. They are a mindless distraction from my work of serving the people of New York, and I do not intend to address them further.

Such words sealed Cuomo's fate. Cuomo was widely mocked for essentially admitting to the charges against him, but dismissing them as irrelevant and asking others to do the same. All the while, Cuomo continued campaigning for the 2016 Democratic nomination, and the attacks came, with Governor O'Malley and Governor Patrick offering Governor Cuomo the harshest criticisms.



Why is it so hard for politicians today to marry one person, remain married to that person, and share romance and sex with that person only? I've already attacked Governor Cuomo's fiscal stances as too conservative; now I have no doubt in my mind that Cuomo is campaigning in the wrong party's primary.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley



For a man who markets himself as the hallmark of a new brand of ethically sound, transparent politicians, Governor Cuomo has certainly let down his constituents. I think Governor Cuomo should be more direct about the charges against him, and if appropriate, resign from the Governorship and withdraw from the race.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Do you approve of Governor Andrew Cuomo?
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 61%
Not Sure: 5%

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Should Governor Cuomo resign as Governor?
Yes: 54%
No: 31%
Not Sure: 15%

Public Policy Polling 3/26/15: Should Governor Cuomo withdraw from the Democratic Primary?
Yes: 76%
No: 15%
Not Sure: 9%

Eventually, Patrick's wishes came true. Governor Cuomo released the following statement of March 28, 2015:



Within the last few weeks, allegations regarding inappropriate decisions I have made throughout the last decade have come to light. In the meantime, I have let down my family, and I have let down the people of New York, who were promised an ethical and transparent administration. As a result, I shall resign from the Governorship effective noon tomorrow. Lieutenant Governor Duffy is more than prepared to lead this state, and I have no doubt in my mind he will be an excellent Governor. Additionally, I will be withdrawing from the contest for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

Within nine days, the entire face of the 2016 election had changed. With the Democratic and Republican debates less than a month away from commencing, and the campaign season about to go into full swing, many questions lingered about the fate of the Democratic nomination. In the absence of Cuomo, would Deval Patrick rise to the top and secure the nomination quickly and easily? Or, would Cuomo's actions create a sense of disillusionment with the establishment, allowing Hickenlooper or even O'Malley to surge and find success? How would the Warner campaign be affected by all of this? And finally, is it possible that a new candidate could make a late entrance in light of the race's changed circumstances? Frankly, it was anyone's guess.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I highly doubt their'd be such an uproar about that, especially among liberal Democratic Primary voters.

[PolitiJunkie]

Well it's illegal, and it's totally marriage fraud. It wasn't even so much the Democratic primary voters who were in uproars as New Yorkers and other Democratic primary candidates. Also, people were more angry about Cuomo's initial reaction which was basically "I'm above this," ultimately forcing him to face the music.

[PolitiJunkie]

May I please have some feedback before continuing?

[Enderman]

Its pretty good...I like the fact that Palin is back in politics...the Cuomo scandal is very intriguing! Do continue!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If it is not an inconvenience for you, what are the results of the 2014 elections in FL-22 and FL-18?

[PolitiJunkie]

FL-22: Lois Frankel was able to expand slightly upon her 2012 margin, defeating her Republican challenger with 56.3% of the vote.

FL-18: In a rematch of the hotly contested 2012 election, freshman Representative Patrick Murphy faced the man he defeated in 2012, former Representative Allen West. West's popularity continued to decline and his extremism was further exposed during the 2014 election, allowing Murphy to defeat West with a more decisive margin than in 2012 in this slightly Republican-leaning district. Murphy received 52.3% of the vote, and West received 47.6% of the vote. The aftermath of the election in the 18th district was, once again, notable. Even though the Murphy won with a 4.7-point margin and the election results were resolved much quicker than in 2012, West once again took weeks to concede. Once he ultimately conceded, however, he did announce his full retirement from politics.

[NewYorkExpress]

Who won the Dem primary in NY-13 (Charlie Rangel's district)?

[PolitiJunkie]

Who won the Dem primary in NY-13 (Charlie Rangel's district)?

State Senator Adriano Espaillat challenges Rangel in the Democratic Primary, defining him as a corrupt Washington insider while defining himself as fresh blood that could provide stronger representation for the district. Ultimately, Rangel wins the primary in a 55-45 victory due to loyalty, and he goes onto win the general election with 89% of the vote, just slightly lower than his 2012 result. Do know, however, that in this timeline, Charlie Rangel is vulnerable and will not last much longer!

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter VI: Madame Candidate

March 23, 2015
BREAKING---NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Announces Entrance into Democratic Primary After Declaring Intentions to Stay Out



Two months ago, I announced that I would not seek the nomination of my party for the Presidency of the United States of America. However, the circumstances have changed. This field lacks a New Yorker. This field lacks a woman. But most importantly, this field lacks an outspoken progressive who will fight for the opportunity of every single American. Therefore, despite my earlier announcement, I will, in fact, be a candidate in this election. The battle ahead is long, but shall I succeed, we can make America stronger!
NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

Reactions amongst the pundits were mixed; some declared her an instant frontrunner, where others suspected her campaign would have a hard time achieving momentum and contesting against Patrick and Warner. All sides, however, acknowledged that Gillibrand's fundraising prowess, along with her charisma in a field of somewhat bland frontrunners and her ability to connect with groups of voters across the board would come as an asset to her candidacy.

Public Policy Polling 3/24/15- Do you approve of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand?
Yes- 31%
No- 13%
Unsure- 56%

Public Policy Polling 3/24/15- Who do you support for the 2016 Democratic Primary?
Undecided- 57%
Patrick- 14%
Gillibrand- 13%
Warner- 11%
O'Malley- 3%
Hickenlooper- 2%

The results of the polling following Gillibrand's announcement was at first shocking, but then easily understandable. A rousing 57% of Democrats polled were undecided as to who they would support, explained by a field of candidates with little name recognition and lack of high-profile candidates such as Clinton, Biden, and Cuomo. The recent shakeup in candidates can also explain the high number of undecided voters, with many voters reevaluating who they support as a result of Cuomo's exit and Gillibrand's entrance.

[NHI]

Good update!

[badgate]

Yay!!

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter VII: Time for Some Campaignin'

With Gillibrand's last-minute entrance into the race for the Democratic nomination and the debates for both parties beginning soon, the campaign season was in full swing. Most major Republicans had already made their endorsements, but a plethora of major Democratic endorsements were about to come...



It gives me great pleasure to stand here with the Clintons today to make our endorsement in the current Democratic Primary. Today, we are announcing our full support for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who has shown tremendous initiative and leadership during her time in Congress and will continue to do so as the next President of the United States!
President Barack Obama

Wait...what was that?

It gives me great pleasure to stand here with the Clintons today...

Did Obama simply misspeak? Or was something bigger going on? Unsurprisingly, Obama's reference to both Clintons despite only being with Hillary, in addition to the fact that their press statement began later than expected and the fact that Hillary looked particularly disheveled at the start of their announcement, led many pundits to speculate that Bill Clinton had intended to endorse Gillibrand with the President and the former Secretary of State but decided to back out or not show up at the last minute. Such speculation would continue to grow, but all questions would be answered later that day when...



I am thrilled to stand here today with the person who served as my right-hand-man for eight years. Today, we speak to you to announce our full-fledged support for Senator Mark Warner as he pursues the Democratic nomination. As President, Warner will continue in the Clinton and Gore tradition of fiscal responsibility and care for the most vulnerable members of our society. Warner 2016!
Former President Bill Clinton


Following these endorsements, all the talk surrounded Bill Clinton's last minute change of heart and the separate endorsements of the Clintons, rather than the actual endorsements themselves. One brave reporter had the chance to ask Hillary Clinton what was on everyone's mind.


Washington Post Reporter: Madame Secretary, what do you have to say about your husband backing out of your joint endorsement of Senator Gillibrand at the last minute and instead endorsing Senator Warner with Vice President Gore?

Secretary Clinton: All I'll tell you is that Bill will be sleeping on the couch tonight.


The split endorsements of four major Democratic Party figures revealed the lack of consensus in the party and led the way to many other endorsements...



Now, Massachusetts has a history of producing presidential candidates, but not exactly winning ones. Governor Dukakis and I, both sons of this great state, both lost presidential elections to Bushes, perhaps me a bit less embarrassingly so. However, that's about to change, because next November, Deval Patrick will follow in the footsteps of John F. Kennedy and put a Massachusetts man back in the White House, and he will have my full support!
Secretary of State John Kerry

Well, I'm no Massachusetts man, and if you wanna know the truth, I didn't vote for Mike Dukakis- I stayed home on November 8, 1988, bitter about having been beaten by Dukakis in the Primary. Now of course we know that my vote wouldn't have made a difference. However, I do have one thing in common with Secretary Kerry, and that is my unwavering endorsement of Governor Patrick in the 2016 Democratic Primary!
Vice President Joe Biden

Other Major Endorsements:
Kaine: Warner
Markell: O'Malley
Madigan: Gillibrand
Nixon: Warner
Bullock: Hickenlooper
Hassan: Gillibrand
Tomblin: Warner
Feinstein: Gillibrand
Boxer: Gillibrand
M. Udall: Hickenlooper
Bennet: Hickenlooper
Nelson: Gillibrand
Hirono: Gillibrand
Hannabusa: Gillibrand
Durbin: Patrick
Landrieu: Warner
Mikulski: Gillibrand
Warren: Gillibrand
McCaskill: Warner
Tester: Hickenlooper
Menendez: Patrick
T. Udall: Hickenlooper
Heinrich: Hickenlooper
Schumer: Gillibrand
Hagan: Warner
S. Brown: Gillibrand
Casey: Gillibrand
Leahy: Patrick
Manchin: Warner
Klobuchar: Gillibrand
Baldwin: Gillibrand
Sanders: O'Malley
McAuliffe: Warner
Castro: Gillibrand
Becerra: Gillibrand
Maloney: Gillibrand
Harris: Gillibrand
Crist: Warner
A. Brown: O'Malley
Whitmer: Gillibrand
Strickland: Hickenlooper
_____________________________________________________________________________

FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: Hickenlooper Triumphs; Patrick and O'Malley Flail



The first Democratic debate took place on May 26, 2015, at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Wolf Blitzer moderated the debate, and included topics ranging from economic progress under the Obama administration, immigration reform (which had not yet been reached), environmental issues, Social Security & Medicare, and gun control. Foreign policy was only briefly touched upon, due to extremely strong levels of national security in the first two years of Obama's second term and a period of relative peace following the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014, Obama's decision to stay out of the Syrian Civil War, and the gradual weakening of North Korea and Iran. The major foreign policy topic discussed was the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, with Gillibrand and O'Malley backing a two-state solution, Warner and Hickenlooper calling for increased aid to Israel, and Patrick's position remaining fairly ambiguous. Another topic notably absent from the debate was anything pertaining to same-sex marriage, with the Supreme Court ruling in June 2013 that struck down Prop 8 and DOMA and legalized same-sex marriage in all 50 states, both 5-4 decisions with Justice Kennedy providing the swing vote.

The most notable performance in the debate was Hickenlooper's. Widely underestimated as a lukewarm candidate with little chance of getting past Iowa, Hickenlooper articulately and convincingly presented his stellar record in Colorado and his plans for the nation. Meanwhile, O'Malley and Patrick spent the majority of the debate arguing with each other and presented very little of their plans for governing the nation. Gillibrand and Warner gave "do no harm" performances, remaining above the silly infighting between Patrick and O'Malley but not delivering the knockout performance of Hickenlooper.

CNN Poll 5/26/15: Who do you think won the Democratic presidential debate?

Hickenlooper 51%
Warner 22%
Gillibrand 21%
Patrick 4%
O'Malley 2%

Hickenlooper, as a result, saw a surge in the polls, nearly overtaking the popular Governor Patrick. Gillibrand and Warner remained in the lead.

Public Policy Poll 5/27/15: Who do you support in the Democratic Primary?

Gillibrand 29%
Warner 25%
Patrick 17%
Hickenlooper 15%
O'Malley 2%
Undecided 12%

[PolitiJunkie]

FIRST REPUBLICAN DEBATE: Huntsman & Rubio Impress, Thune & Jindal Surprise, Paul & Santorum Blunder



The first Republican debate took place on June 2, 2015 at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. The debate was moderated by Brit Hume. Each candidate spent ample time criticizing the economic record of President Obama and, other than Huntsman, each endorsed the repeal of Obamacare. Beyond that, however, there was little consensus. Paul and Santorum spent quite a bit of time going at each other's throats. Santorum spoke about the necessity of passing a Federal Marriage Amendment and a Respect for Life Amendment to supersede the Supreme Court's 1973 and 2013 rulings, whereas Rand Paul said that although he certainly opposed both same-sex marriage and abortion, the focus should be upon strengthening the economy, substantially altering the United States' role abroad because the current role is "unconstitutional and unaffordable," and ending the war on drugs. Santorum retorted that Paul's "isolationist" and "pro-drug" views would weaken America; Paul denied these charges and called Santorum's far-right religious stances "harmful to the party." Santorum had the last word, calling Paul a "fringe candidate." Paul also came off very weak outside the bickering with Santorum, coming across as both unknowledgable and inexperienced regarding economic and foreign policy issues and failing to strongly articulate the conservative libertarian perspective.

John Thune and Bobby Jindal surprised pundits and viewers, coming across highly articulate, staying above the bickering between Paul and Santorum, and effectively conveying their not dissimilar platforms and the need to elect a Republican in 2016 to "save the economy from this Obamanation" (Jindal) and "halt the frightening rate at which the government has expanded under this administration" (Thune). However, Rubio and Huntsman came off the strongest. Despite an extremely weak bid in 2012, Huntsman was seen as a much more formidable candidate this time around due to the lack of any other somewhat moderate candidate and the hardly universal though indisputably present coalition of Republican voters who felt as though the only hope for Republican victory in 2016 was a pivot toward the center. Huntsman successfully presented him as a conservative who could work with both parties and get elected, fending off attacks from the other candidates that he wasn't conservative enough. His endorsement of gay marriage would have been a bigger issue if candidates like Rubio and Thune weren't trying to ignore it. Finally, Rubio, who many feared would be built up too high but ultimately deliver a lackluster debate performance, presented himself as the best face of the party and the candidate with the strongest vision going forward.

For the final question, Hume asked each candidate a question that had been asked in 2012: "if you were to receive the nomination, and you could only pick another man on this stage as your running mate, who would you choose?" Unlike in 2012, each candidate actually answered. Huntsman and Thune picked Rubio; Rubio and Jindal picked Thune; Paul and Santorum, in the only thing they agreed on the entire night other than their opposition to Obama and Obamacare, picked Jindal. Though the responses to this question were interesting to hear, most pundits and viewers seemed to believe that it meant very little due to the likelihood that the eventual nominee would pick a running mate outside this field of candidates.

Fox News Poll 6/2/15: Who do you believe won the Republican presidential debate?
Rubio: 35%
Huntsman: 21%
Thune: 20%
Jindal: 19%
Paul: 3%
Santorum: 2%

Public Policy Poll 6/3/15: Who do you support in the Republican primary?
Rubio: 24%
Thune: 19%
Jindal: 17%
Huntsman: 14%
Paul: 11%
Santorum: 9%
Undecided: 6%
____________________________________________________________________________


Ruth Bader Ginsburg: 3/15/33 - 6/11/15

On June 11, 2015, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away, ending speculation regarding her retirement date. Obama delivered a speech praising Ginsburg's service and legacy, along with the milestone she reached as the first Jewish female Justice. The next day, citing the importance of continuity and keeping a fully-functioning Court, Obama asked the Senate to quickly confirm his nominee for Ginsburg's replacement, Court of Appeals Justice Jacqueline Hong-Ngoc Nguyen. Nguyen was confirmed two and a half weeks later without filibuster in a 81-15 vote to become the first Asian-American Supreme Court Justice.



Jacqueline Hong-Ngoc Nguyen - 113th United States Supreme Court Justice

____________________________________________________________________________

August 15, 2015: A Surprise at the Ames Iowa Straw Poll - It's Rand!


Rand Paul             4,551 Votes              27.9%
John Thune               4,127 Votes             25.3%
Marco Rubio              3,654 Votes              22.4%
Rick Santorum          1,990 Votes              12.2%
Bobby Jindal              1,191 Votes              7.3%
Jon Huntsman          799 Votes                 4.9%


Once again, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll has proved its meaninglessness.
MSNBC Commentator Rachel Maddow
___________________________________________________________________________


George H.W. Bush: 6/12/24-9/7/15

Sadness overcame the nation on September 7 when former President George H.W. Bush peacefully died in his sleep. A week later, Bush's state funeral took place, with eulogies from George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, President Obama, and other national figures and world leaders that highlighted Bush's lengthy career of public service and his profound impact upon the nation.

[PolitiJunkie]

Final Pre-Iowa Debates



The final Democratic debate before the Iowa Caucus took place in Johnston, Iowa on December 13, 2015. The debate was hosted by ABC News in conjunction with the Iowa Democratic Party and was moderated by George Stephanopoulos. At the end of the debate, each candidate had their chance to present their final case to the voters of Iowa.

In my nine years in Congress, I have fought. I have fought for farmers and for teachers. I have fought for the young and the old. I have fought for LGBT Americans and United States military veterans. If the voters of Iowa bring me one step forward to the Presidency come January, I will have the chance to fight for each and every American, expanding the work that President Obama has done over the last eight years and making America a better place to live for all.
NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

America is at a crossroads. In the first sixteen years of this century, partisan rancor has superseded the American interest in Washington. I offer you a moderate vision. As a candidate able to reach across the aisle and collaborate with ideologies ranging from that of Bernie Sanders to that of Ted Cruz, and ultimately fashioning one somewhere in between that can work for everyone. In the last seven years I have created for myself the role of "America's Senator," and now I would like to continue this work as America's President.
VA Sen. Mark Warner

My friends, this President has accomplished an extraordinary amount in bringing us out of the mess that he inherited, but it has not been enough. Dangerous assault weapons still permeate our streets, executions still occur at rampant levels, minority groups still face disheartening levels of challenge and discrimination, and many Americans are still struggling to put food on the table. As Howard Dean said in 2004, 'I represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.' Voters in the great state of Iowa, please support my unapologetically liberal vision and vote O'Malley on January 5!
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley

I have spent the last six months presenting my vision to the American people and I have spent the last six years executing my vision to the people of Colorado. I have no need for a thirty-second sound bite to 'present my final case.' I trust that the voters of Iowa will make the right decision next month
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper

A popular adage states 'don't fix what's not broken.' As the candidate with the vision and ideology closest to the current President, I ask that the voters of Iowa reflect on whether or not you are better off than you were eight years ago. I'd hazard a guess that the answer is, in most cases, 'yes,' and if it is, I ask that you express your confidence in my ability to improve upon the successes of the Obama administration by giving me your vote on January 5.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

____________________________________________________________________________

The final Republican debate before the Iowa Caucus also took place in Johnston, Iowa. The debate took place one day after the final Democratic debate, on December 14, 2015. The debate was hosted by the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television and was moderated by Rick Green, the editor of the Des Moines Register. The Republicans faced a similar task at the end, but with one twist- each candidate was asked to present their vision to the voters in five words.

Rebirth of the American Dream
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio

American strength through family values
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum

Fiscal responsibility and limited government
South Dakota Sen. John Thune

A needed shakeup in Washington
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal

Success through a bipartisan approach
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman

Liberty, liberty, liberty, and liberty
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul
___________________________________________________________________________

Final Pre-Iowa Polling:

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Democratic Primary (National)?

Gillibrand 28%
Warner 27%
Hickenlooper 19%
Patrick 17%
O'Malley 4%
Undecided 5%

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Democratic Primary (Iowa)?

Warner 34%
Hickenlooper 25%
Gillibrand 21%
Patrick 11%
O'Malley 3%
Undecided 6%

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Democratic Primary (New Hampshire)?

Gillibrand 37%
Patrick 26%
Hickenlooper 16%
Warner 13%
O'Malley 5%
Undecided 3%

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Republican Primary (National)?

Rubio 26%
Thune 23%
Huntsman 22%
Jindal 17%
Paul 4%
Santorum 2%
Undecided 6%

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Republican Primary (Iowa)?

Rubio 25%
Thune 24%
Santorum 14%
Jindal 13%
Paul 12%
Huntsman 4%
Undecided 8%

Public Policy Poll 12/21/15: Who do you support in the Republican Primary (New Hampshire)?

Huntsman 31%
Rubio 26%
Paul 15%
Thune 13%
Jindal 7%
Santorum 3%
Undecided 5%



NEXT CHAPTER: THE IOWA CAUCUSES!

[NHI]

Great update!! Go Paul!

[PolitiJunkie]

Flashback: 2015 Gubernatorial Elections

In November 2015, despite most of the focus being on the Democratic and Republican primary campaigning, three states held their gubernatorial elections.

Mississippi: In the least interesting and least surprising gubernatorial election of 2015, Governor Phil Bryant easily won reelection, defeating State Senator Kenneth Jones.

Phil Bryant: 64.3%
Kenneth Jones: 35.7%

REPUBLICAN HOLD

Kentucky: In a hotly contested election to succeed popular centrist Democratic Governor Steven Beshear, State Auditor Adam Edelen, widely considered to be a rising star within Kentucky and the Democratic Party, defeated Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson, Attorney General Jack Conway, and Kentucky House Speaker Greg Stumbo in a fiercely fought Democratic Primary. Edelen received 29.8% of the vote, Ambramson received 28.6% of the vote, Conway received 27.1% of the vote, and Stumbo received 14.5% of the vote. In the general election, Edelen defeated weak Republican candidate James Comer, Kentucky's Agricultural Commissioner.

Adam Edelen: 54.7%
James Comer: 45.3%

DEMOCRATIC HOLD

However, the truly newsworthy election of 2015 occurred in Louisiana, famously dubbed by Fox News Anchor Chris Wallace as "the weirdest election ever." With the Louisiana Republican Primary fiercely divided toward the end of unpopular Governor Bobby Jindal's second term, SIX Republican candidates ran in Louisiana's top-two "jungle primary." The state party attempted to intervene, recognizing how devastating this could be for the chances of the Republican Party to hold the Governor's mansion, but no candidate was willing to bow out. Preceding the jungle primary, the election was not too newsworthy because most simply assumed that one of the several Republican candidates would place in at least second place in the divided jungle primary, then easily go onto defeat one of the three Democratic candidates in the runoff. However, what resulted was entirely different, and shocking to say the least...

Louisiana "Jungle Primary" Results
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D): 23.1%
Louisiana House of Representatives Minority Leader John Bel Edwards (D): 12.7%
United States Senator David Vitter (R): 11.9%
Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne (R): 11.5%
State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy (R): 11.1%
Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry Michael Strain (R): 10.6%
Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle (R): 9.6%
State Senator Gerald Long (R): 7.4%
Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D): 2.1%

The six Republican candidates, highly different in campaign approaches and political stances, managed to split the Republican vote so drastically- each candidate separated from the other usually by less than one percentage point- that the top-two placers, and therefore the candidates in the runoff election, were both Democrats, despite the three Democratic candidates combined receiving only 37.9% of the total vote. Democrats were delighted at what they perceived as the hilarious incompetency of Republicans that allowed the Democrats to overtake a Governor's Mansion in an election that should have been a Republican lock, and Republicans felt furious and bitter over the absurdly unexpected outcome.

Louisiana Runoff Election Results
Mitch Landrieu: 77.3%
John Bel Edwards: 22.7%

In the extremely low turnout runoff election between two Democratic candidates, Landrieu trumped Edwards in a landslide, becoming the 56th Governor of Louisiana.

DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Gubernatorial Composition Following 2015 Elections:
Democrats: 27 (+1)
Republicans: 23 (-1)

[Spamage]

Nice TL

[PolitiJunkie]

Chapter VIII: It's Iowa!

Iowa Caucuses
January 5, 2016


Good evening, I'm Wolf Blitzer. Tonight, CNN will be providing full coverage of the Iowa Caucuses, the first official contests of the 2016 Election. Tonight could make or break several campaigns, and it's anyone's guess how tonight will play out. On the Democratic side, Virginia Senator Mark Warner has been leading in Iowa despite trailing New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand nationally. Will Warner cruise to victory tonight, or might he be upset by Gillibrand or Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, who has been seeing a major rise in the polls as of late? And finally, do former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick or former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley have any shot of over-performing tonight? And on the Republican side, the race is close. Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been leading both nationally and in Iowa, but there is plenty of room for nearly any of the candidates besides Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is skipping the Iowa Caucus and campaigning in New Hampshire tonight, to rise to victory.


It is now 10 PM, polls have been closed for two hours now, and we finally have some projections to make. On the Republican side, we can project that former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will place sixth and Louisiana Gov. will place fifth. The other four candidates are all quite close in numbers at this time. On the Democratic side, we can project that Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley will place fifth, but not much else. We will now to go our panel of political analysts for tonight.

John King: On the Democratic side, O'Malley's poor performance is both unsurprising and unpromising. He was a weak candidate from the start, and he is going nowhere in this race. If he chooses to stay in- which he probably will- I do not see him placing in anything but last place in any contest. Maybe he could pull fourth in South Carolina, which Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper skipped and where he is not expected to do well, but that's it. He won't go anywhere.

Candy Crowley: The real surprise tonight is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's embarrassing performance. Of course, he has been banking on South Carolina, but final polling showed him in fourth place with 13% of the vote, and now it looks as though he will receive no more than 7%.



It is now almost 11 PM, and CNN has a few more projections for tonight's Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick will over-perform, coming in third place with just under 20% of the vote. Conversely, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who has been surging in the polls as of late, will underperform tremendously, finishing in fourth place despite polling at 25% and being discussed as potentially able to pull an upset tonight. And on the Republican side, we can project that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will come in fourth place, and that Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul will overperform tremendously, coming in third place with just over 20% of the vote. We are unable to project winners in either contest- Warner and Gillibrand are neck-and-neck on the Democratic side, as are Thune and Rubio on the Republican side. Now, we will hear speeches from several of the losing candidates.


Certainly, we were disappointed by tonight's results, but unlike many other candidates, we were never banking on Iowa. We will over-perform in New Hampshire and Nevada, we will win the South Carolina primary at the end of this month, and that will give us the momentum we need to win the nomination and win the White House in November!


Well, we met our expectations for tonight. Just like four years ago, I am in this race to win it, and I will go as far as I need to make my case and convince the voters that a Santorum presidency is the best investment for the future.


Third place? Over twenty percent of the vote? WOW! We did it, Iowa! Tonight's result just further proves the uselessness of polling, which said that we would struggle to even break 10 percent tonight, in fifth place ahead of only the Democrat in this race, Jon Huntsman. Well, we proved them wrong tonight, and we will continue to do that in New Hampshire, in Nevada, and all across the nation!


As the most progressive candidate in this race, I knew Iowa would not be my contest. Luckily, there are 50 states in this great nation, and Iowa is just one of them, so onward!


Iowa has a knack for rewarding the underdog. Eight years ago, a freshman Senator who wanted to make a difference was told he had no chance at competing with the establishment favorites in a presidential run, but he won Iowa, and he went on to win the primary and two terms in the White House. I may not have won tonight, but I did a whole lot better than any polls and pundits predicted, so I'm declaring victory. This race is gonna be a long one, but together, we can win it!


Though I am certainly surprised by my performance tonight, this campaign is far from dead. I have always been the underdog in this race, and tonight may not change that like I hoped, but we will continue to give this contest our all and the people of this great nation will identify with out message!


Blitzer: It is now shortly after midnight, and we can finally project the results of the Democratic race. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner will narrowly edge out New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for first place tonight.

IOWA RESULTS: DEMOCRATS
Mark Warner: 29%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 28%
Deval Patrick: 19%
John Hickenlooper: 17%
Martin O'Malley: 6%

Blitzer: It is now nearly 3 o'clock AM, and we can finally project the results of the Republican race, once again an incredibly narrow race. In a minor upset, South Dakota Sen. John Thune will win the Iowa Caucus, beating Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

IOWA RESULTS: REPUBLICANS
John Thune 27%
Marco Rubio 26%
Rand Paul 21%
Rick Santorum 17%
Bobby Jindal 5%
Jon Huntsman 4%

[PolitiJunkie]

By the way, this is the primary/caucus schedule I will be using. Note that both parties will hold their contests in a given state on the same date.

Tuesday 1/5: Iowa
Tuesday 1/12: New Hampshire
Saturday 1/23: Nevada
Saturday 1/30: South Carolina
Tuesday 2/2: Florida
Saturday 2/6: Michigan; Arizona
Saturday 2/13: Alabama; Alaska; Arkansas; Louisiana; Mississippi
Tuesday 2/16: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgioa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
Saturday 2/20: Nebraska, Washington
Sunday 2/21: Maine
Tuesday 2/23: Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C.
Tuesday 3/1: Hawaii, Wisconsin
Tuesday 3/8: Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, Ohio
Tuesday 3/12: Wyoming
Tuesday 4/5: Pennsylvania
Tuesday 4/19: Indiana, North Carolina
Tuesday 4/26: West Virginia
Tuesday 5/10: Kentucky, Oregon
Tuesday 5/24: Montana, South Dakota

[Enderman]

By the way, this is the primary/caucus schedule I will be using. Note that both parties will hold their contests in a given state on the same date.

Tuesday 1/5: Iowa
Tuesday 1/12: New Hampshire
Saturday 1/23: Nevada
Saturday 1/30: South Carolina
Tuesday 2/2: Florida
Saturday 2/6: Michigan; Arizona
Saturday 2/13: Alabama; Alaska; Arkansas; Louisiana; Mississippi
Tuesday 2/16: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgioa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
Saturday 2/20: Nebraska, Washington
Sunday 2/21: Maine
Tuesday 2/23: Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C.
Tuesday 3/1: Hawaii, Wisconsin
Tuesday 3/8: Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, Ohio
Tuesday 3/12: Wyoming
Tuesday 4/5: April
Tuesday 4/19: Indiana, North Carolina
Tuesday 4/26: West Virginia
Tuesday 5/10: Kentucky, Oregon
Tuesday 5/24: Montana, South Dakota

Well now, I didn't know that THAT was a state!

[PolitiJunkie]

By the way, this is the primary/caucus schedule I will be using. Note that both parties will hold their contests in a given state on the same date.

Tuesday 1/5: Iowa
Tuesday 1/12: New Hampshire
Saturday 1/23: Nevada
Saturday 1/30: South Carolina
Tuesday 2/2: Florida
Saturday 2/6: Michigan; Arizona
Saturday 2/13: Alabama; Alaska; Arkansas; Louisiana; Mississippi
Tuesday 2/16: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgioa, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
Saturday 2/20: Nebraska, Washington
Sunday 2/21: Maine
Tuesday 2/23: Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C.
Tuesday 3/1: Hawaii, Wisconsin
Tuesday 3/8: Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, Ohio
Tuesday 3/12: Wyoming
Tuesday 4/5: April
Tuesday 4/19: Indiana, North Carolina
Tuesday 4/26: West Virginia
Tuesday 5/10: Kentucky, Oregon
Tuesday 5/24: Montana, South Dakota

Well now, I didn't know that THAT was a state!

Fixed