Bulgaria 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

[GMantis]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

There were valid reasons for this choice, but still it's not something that will attract left-wing voters. Ataka had far more left wing positions and it shows (especially considering that a few months ago had been totally written off).

[Tender Branson]

today's events

?

Hundreds of thousands extra ballots, made by a GERB local councilor, found; BSP leading in some exit polls; things like that.

Ah yeah, that were the two things I was already aware of (after realizing how tall the number of extra ballots was; that somehow escaped me the first time I read it.)

You speak German IIRC; this is how your country gets reported on here:
http://www.fr-online.de/politik/bulgarien-wo-die-sonne-vom-himmel-faellt,1472596,22704722.html

Interesting read from today's Standard (for German-understanders Lewis and GMantis) about a youth welfare official in Vienna that has been "silenced" now and accused of racism for stating a fact (and very likely the truth) about Roma kids and also Afghan kids coming here:

http://derstandard.at/1363710732864/Rassismusvorwurf-Sprechverbot-fuer-Wiener-Jugendamt-Mitarbeiter

[Famous Mortimer]

Dumb question: Who is the BSP candidate for Prime Minister? You said it was someone other than Stanishev.

Plamen Oresharski, independent and finance minister of the BSP led grand coalition between 2005 and 2009. Rather strange choice for a socialist led coalition, considering  that under his administration one of the lowest flat tax rates in the world was implemented here.

Reminds me of when the Hungarian Socialist Party nominated independent former Finance Minister Péter Medgyessy. Medgyessy did win, so maybe not so weird.

There were valid reasons for this choice, but still it's not something that will attract left-wing voters. Ataka had far more left wing positions and it shows (especially considering that a few months ago had been totally written off).

I remember when Volen Siderov made the presidential run-off election in 2006, one of the few foreign leaders who called to congratulate him was National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard Limonov. If Attack is half as eccentric as the NBP, yeah, they got some left-wing positions here and there.

[GMantis]

Interesting read from today's Standard (for German-understanders Lewis and GMantis) about a youth welfare official in Vienna that has been "silenced" now and accused of racism for stating a fact (and very likely the truth) about Roma kids and also Afghan kids coming here:

http://derstandard.at/1363710732864/Rassismusvorwurf-Sprechverbot-fuer-Wiener-Jugendamt-Mitarbeiter

I'm sure those Gypsy and Afghan children will be happy to know to know that their rights are being protected by this measure

I remember when Volen Siderov made the presidential run-off election in 2006, one of the few foreign leaders who called to congratulate him was National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard Limonov. If Attack is half as eccentric as the NBP, yeah, they got some left-wing positions here and there.

They're calling for nationalizations, they're certainly left-wing on economics. In fact, that's largely how they got into parliament in the first place.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

[GMantis]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

I agree that the infighting played a role why the popular Parvanov was not appointed. Unlike the non-party Oresharski, Parvanov was a member of BSP and could certainly undermine Stanishev from within if he became Prime Minister.
As for the reasons for the rivalry, obviously both think that they're the best possible leaders of BSP. As for whether he was more left-wing, it's difficult to say. Parvanov is more opportunistic, while Stanishev is generally more straightforward when defending his positions (though he's also been capable of compromises with right-wing forces). All in all, I wouldn't say that ideology was the main reason for the conflict between them.

[GMantis]

The leaders of both MRF and Ataka have announced that they will not form a coalition with GERB. BSP will probably attempt a so called "program government", where they ask for support for a political program, without formal agreements. Both they and MRF are suggesting that the choice of those who voted for a non-parliamentary party (which are very high, perhaps over 25%) must in some way be represented though it's unclear how this will be carried out.

[Famous Mortimer]

I was going to ask why a party unambiguously to the left of the BSP (on both economics AND cultural issues) has been unable to emerge. Then I remembered the party from the 90s called the Bulgarian Euroleft. Wouldn't they have fit that bill? The name suggested socially liberal, Green-ish types. What ever happened to them?

[Famous Mortimer]

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

I agree that the infighting played a role why the popular Parvanov was not appointed. Unlike the non-party Oresharski, Parvanov was a member of BSP and could certainly undermine Stanishev from within if he became Prime Minister.
As for the reasons for the rivalry, obviously both think that they're the best possible leaders of BSP. As for whether he was more left-wing, it's difficult to say. Parvanov is more opportunistic, while Stanishev is generally more straightforward when defending his positions (though he's also been capable of compromises with right-wing forces). All in all, I wouldn't say that ideology was the main reason for the conflict between them.

In the news article cited on Wikipedia, Stanishev said that Purvanov would "take the party backwards". That seemed like me to be an illusion to Communism. So I thought maybe Puranov was more left-wing based on that.

[GMantis]

I was going to ask why a party unambiguously to the left of the BSP (on both economics AND cultural issues) has been unable to emerge. Then I remembered the party from the 90s called the Bulgarian Euroleft. Wouldn't they have fit that bill? The name suggested socially liberal, Green-ish types. What ever happened to them?

Actually that was intended to be a social democratic party (by the European model, of course), at a time when BSP was a far more left-wing party. The reason that party collapsed rather quickly was because it was trying to become a satellite of the right-wing ruling party, which of course alienated most of their supporters.
Regarding cultural issues, their importance is so minor here, that it's difficult to tell who is to the right and who is to the left on them.

Wikipedia says there was infighting between Stanishev and former president Georgi Purvanov. Is that why they appointed an independent third person as their candidate? Also, what was the nature of the rivalry between Stanishev and Purvanov? Purely personal or was one more left-wing than the other?

I agree that the infighting played a role why the popular Parvanov was not appointed. Unlike the non-party Oresharski, Parvanov was a member of BSP and could certainly undermine Stanishev from within if he became Prime Minister.
As for the reasons for the rivalry, obviously both think that they're the best possible leaders of BSP. As for whether he was more left-wing, it's difficult to say. Parvanov is more opportunistic, while Stanishev is generally more straightforward when defending his positions (though he's also been capable of compromises with right-wing forces). All in all, I wouldn't say that ideology was the main reason for the conflict between them.

In the news article cited on Wikipedia, Stanishev said that Purvanov would "take the party backwards". That seemed like me to be an illusion to Communism. So I thought maybe Puranov was more left-wing based on that.

Could you give me a link to the article, so that I can see what exactly he meant?

[Famous Mortimer]

"Stanishev, who at the end of 2011 had the political fillip of being elected acting leader of the Party of European Socialists, has said that a return to the BSP being led by Purvanov would drag the party backwards. Bulgarian media reports quoted polls indicating that a slim majority of socialist supporters agreed with Stanishev, giving the current leader a slight advantage over Purvanov. The congress at which the leadership question will be decided is quite a number of weeks away, in May."

http://www.sofiaecho.com/2012/03/13/1786372_the-long-long-road-to-bulgarias-2013-parliamentary-elections

Probably nothing to it. I'm just asking a lot of questions because I hardly ever get the chance to talk to a Bulgarian about politics. I actually have met a couple Bulgarians while hosteling in America but bringing up politics always kills the conservation dead. That's actually the case with Eastern Europeans in general.

[GMantis]

"Stanishev, who at the end of 2011 had the political fillip of being elected acting leader of the Party of European Socialists, has said that a return to the BSP being led by Purvanov would drag the party backwards. Bulgarian media reports quoted polls indicating that a slim majority of socialist supporters agreed with Stanishev, giving the current leader a slight advantage over Purvanov. The congress at which the leadership question will be decided is quite a number of weeks away, in May."

http://www.sofiaecho.com/2012/03/13/1786372_the-long-long-road-to-bulgarias-2013-parliamentary-elections

Probably nothing to it. I'm just asking a lot of questions because I hardly ever get the chance to talk to a Bulgarian about politics. I actually have met a couple Bulgarians while hosteling in America but bringing up politics always kills the conservation dead. That's actually the case with Eastern Europeans in general.

I don't really think he meant anything like Parvanov being pro-Communist, it's probably just political talk.
I suppose that Eastern Europeans prefer not to be reminded of such unpleasant subject abroad.

[Tender Branson]

96.1% of the votes counted:

30.7% GERB
27.0% Socialists
10.6% Turk Party
  7.4% Ataka
24.3% Others (but none above 4% threshold)

http://results.cik.bg/pi2013/rezultati/index.html

Is it just me or are there no vote totals shown ?

[Famous Mortimer]

I was going to plug each name into Google translate but then I see Wikipedia has all the parties with their percentages in English:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_parliamentary_election,_2013

[GMantis]

96.1% of the votes counted:

30.7% GERB
27.0% Socialists
10.6% Turk Party
  7.4% Ataka
24.3% Others (but none above 4% threshold)

http://results.cik.bg/pi2013/rezultati/index.html

Now the almost complete results are available (99.563% counted):
30.74% (97) GERB
27.06% (86) Socialists
10.46% (33)Turk Party
7.394% (24) Ataka

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, they'll probably show them when they're finished counting.

[Famous Mortimer]

A grand coalition seems the only way to go since there's no chance a new election would produce a more workable legislature.

Or perhaps they could try to have the current technocratic government government try to stay on indefinitely. I'm unsure about the legality of that under the Bulgarian constitution.

[Hash]

Is there any way to see the results for the FPTP seats?

[GMantis]

A grand coalition seems the only way to go since there's no chance a new election would produce a more workable legislature.

Or perhaps they could try to have the current technocratic government government try to stay on indefinitely. I'm unsure about the legality of that under the Bulgarian constitution.

A grand coalition is out of the question. BSP, MRF and Ataka have all announced that they won't ally with GERB and while the later has now reversed its position and wants a coalition at any cost (they even claim they would discuss forming a coalition with MRF), none of them are likely to change their positions. Of course that doesn't mean that a government relying on the support of both Ataka and MRF is much more likelier. So it seems that regardless of whether it will produce a more workable legislature, a new election seems very likely at the moment.

And no, they can't have the current government stay on indefinitely (and a good thing too, considering to what extent it's controlled by GERB). Once a parliament is elected, a new parliamentary supported government must be formed and if this is impossible, parliament is dissolved and new elections must be held no later than months after this date. Of course if this parliament can't form a government, then the current caretaker government will presumably stay until the next elections (and the one after that and so on, if the current political landscape doesn't change...)

Is there any way to see the results for the FPTP seats?

There are no FPTP seats.

[Hash]

Oh, they abolished the parallel voting system?

[Famous Mortimer]

What about a Socialist government supported by MRF and Attack?

[GMantis]

What about a Socialist government supported by MRF and Attack?

That's the only remaining possibility. But it's difficult to see what "program government" could be supported by both MRF and Ataka.

Oh, they abolished the parallel voting system?

Yes. I doubt that GERB wanted to repeat BSP's experience.

[GMantis]

The results from inside the country are now complete, though there are still outstanding votes from abroad.

The election results by province:



Actually by electoral district, but they're nearly the same.

[MaxQue]

Wierd. I expected Turks to be near the Turkish border, not in the northeast near Romania.

[politicus]

Wierd. I expected Turks to be near the Turkish border, not in the northeast near Romania.

Its Southern Dobruja, a border area that was repeatedly settled by various migrating or deposed groups (Tatars 1512-14, Gagausians etc.), especially during the Ottoman era. The first Turks came in 1280 and the Ottomans needed a loyal population to secure the area. Most of the Bulgarian population came as settlers in the 19th century.