Great new demographic-based Electoral College calculator by Nate Silver

[Nichlemn]

Here.

It's ostensibly about the effects of immigration reform, but I think the general racial voting patterns are more interesting. See what it takes, for instance, to make Texas a D-leaning state (going Democratic as the country goes Republican).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's also interesting to see what it takes to get a Republican victory in 2012.  40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote combined with a mere 12% of Blacks would have done it.

[Skill and Chance]

It's also interesting to see what it takes to get a Republican victory in 2012.  40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote combined with a mere 12% of Blacks would have done it.

Another interesting thing is how hugely important Florida becomes to post-2020 Dems in the electoral college.  If the Dems fall into the 30's with the white vote, the Republicans end up with a huge advantage in the electoral college until Florida and/or Arizona become a Dem-leaning states because they flip most of the Midwest.  I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is left of WI, MN, and IA in the 2020's if current coalitions hold. 

Alternatively, assuming the GOP improves it's image with minority voters after immigration reform to such an extent that it gets 40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote, the Democrats only need to get up to 42%-43% of the white vote to compensate.  So the conservative base risk to the GOP from immigration reform is real.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

This is funny, If I put 100% Citizenship/100% Voting and give Obama 100% for all the nonwhite vote, Dems only need 13% of the white vote to win the election by 2048.

[greenforest32]

It's also interesting to see what it takes to get a Republican victory in 2012.  40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote combined with a mere 12% of Blacks would have done it.

Another interesting thing is how hugely important Florida becomes to post-2020 Dems in the electoral college.  If the Dems fall into the 30's with the white vote, the Republicans end up with a huge advantage in the electoral college until Florida and/or Arizona become a Dem-leaning states because they flip most of the Midwest.  I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is left of WI, MN, and IA in the 2020's if current coalitions hold. 

Alternatively, assuming the GOP improves it's image with minority voters after immigration reform to such an extent that it gets 40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote, the Democrats only need to get up to 42%-43% of the white vote to compensate.  So the conservative base risk to the GOP from immigration reform is real.

Democrats should start a 'Battleground Florida' too considering the state is enough to sink Republicans. Also consider how much stronger it would be if Christ won the governorship in 2014 and restarted the automatic restoration of felon voting rights: http://www.sentencingproject.org/map/map.cfm

[opebo]

This is funny, If I put 100% Citizenship/100% Voting and give Obama 100% for all the nonwhite vote, Dems only need 13% of the white vote to win the election by 2048.

You don't like that do you?

Actually I just checked that - given the parameters you stipulate, I get only 10% of the white vote as necessary to win in 2048.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

This is funny, If I put 100% Citizenship/100% Voting and give Obama 100% for all the nonwhite vote, Dems only need 13% of the white vote to win the election by 2048.

You don't like that do you?

No, I'm fine with it.  Whoever wins the most votes should win, IMO.  It's just interesting how sliding the scales different ways can give very, very different results.

[opebo]

This is funny, If I put 100% Citizenship/100% Voting and give Obama 100% for all the nonwhite vote, Dems only need 13% of the white vote to win the election by 2048.

You don't like that do you?

No, I'm fine with it.  Whoever wins the most votes should win, IMO.  It's just interesting how sliding the scales different ways can give very, very different results.

The glaring thing that playing with this map has brought home to me is how very important it is to keep at least in the high 30s of whites voting Democratic.  As Skill-and-Chance points out, a deterioration in the white vote percentage can create a huge electoral vote deficit even while the Democrats win narrowly in popular vote.  Terrifying.

[LastVoter]

This is funny, If I put 100% Citizenship/100% Voting and give Obama 100% for all the nonwhite vote, Dems only need 13% of the white vote to win the election by 2048.

You don't like that do you?

No, I'm fine with it.  Whoever wins the most votes should win, IMO.  It's just interesting how sliding the scales different ways can give very, very different results.

The glaring thing that playing with this map has brought home to me is how very important it is to keep at least in the high 30s of whites voting Democratic.  As Skill-and-Chance points out, a deterioration in the white vote percentage can create a huge electoral vote deficit even while the Democrats win narrowly in popular vote.  Terrifying.

What's more terrifying is that more and more whites are less than 3 months(or however long they can "couch surf" when they lose their employment) away from homelessness/death and yet they vote more and more Republican.  The precariously positioned white working class seems be hungry for the "iron fist".

[Del Tachi]

Even giving Hispanics and Asians very optimistic growth rates, I was surprised by how a little variation in the White vote could cause a wide variation in election outcomes.

Democrats should be really scared about this.  As America becomes "browner" because of the shrinking White population relative to minorities, a more homogeneous racial identity in "White America" may develop.  If the Republicans are able to capitalize upon this, then the "Permanent Democratic Majority" theory is out the window. 

[H. Ross Peron]

Even giving Hispanics and Asians very optimistic growth rates, I was surprised by how a little variation in the White vote could cause a wide variation in election outcomes.

Democrats should be really scared about this.  As America becomes "browner" because of the shrinking White population relative to minorities, a more homogeneous racial identity in "White America" may develop.  If the Republicans are able to capitalize upon this, then the "Permanent Democratic Majority" theory is out the window. 

I'm sceptical of this. Even white Millennials are far more liberal than their elders, especially in most of the swing states in the West and Florida.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is absolutely awesome. Actually, there needs to be a new word to express how great it is.

There is only one thing I don't get: how comes that, when you toy around with the "immigration reform" buttons (the one on the top, left of the maps), the outcome of the 2012 election is affected? The margin goes from 3.8 (actual margin) with no immigration reform, to 6.8 when both bars are at 100%. By definition, the reform will only be implemented after the election, so how can it change 2012 results (even if not by much)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, I've played around with the numbers in order to find out what a "postracial" 2012 election would look like. I've turned off the "immigration reform" controls and gave Obama 50% of  the 2PV in each racial category.

Obama: 293
Romney: 245

So this is a tied race, not the 4-point IRL Obama win, but the EV count is exactly the same when Obama has 52% of the 2PV.

The most GOP state is UT, closely followed by MS and AL. The most Democratic State is VT, who actually beats DC by a pretty wide margin. Iowa and NH are very close to being 60% D.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Thanks!  This is great.

[Nichlemn]

A word of caution: because this calculator assumes uniform swings, the results are probably not very accurate when large swings are inputted. In states where Republicans already win very high percentages of the white vote, further national swings wouldn't get them much further. Also, I suspect the calculation of the national popular vote might get skewed by large swings.

[Nichlemn]

This is absolutely awesome. Actually, there needs to be a new word to express how great it is.

There is only one thing I don't get: how comes that, when you toy around with the "immigration reform" buttons (the one on the top, left of the maps), the outcome of the 2012 election is affected? The margin goes from 3.8 (actual margin) with no immigration reform, to 6.8 when both bars are at 100%. By definition, the reform will only be implemented after the election, so how can it change 2012 results (even if not by much)?

I assume it's based on the hypothetical scenario where it was implemented prior to the 2012 election, for comparison purposes.

[opebo]

Anyway, I've played around with the numbers in order to find out what a "postracial" 2012 election would look like. I've turned off the "immigration reform" controls

How do you 'turn off' a function on this map?  I don't see any option for that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anyway, I've played around with the numbers in order to find out what a "postracial" 2012 election would look like. I've turned off the "immigration reform" controls

How do you 'turn off' a function on this map?  I don't see any option for that.

Set the percent of amnestied illegals who become citizens to 0%.

[opebo]

Anyway, I've played around with the numbers in order to find out what a "postracial" 2012 election would look like. I've turned off the "immigration reform" controls

How do you 'turn off' a function on this map?  I don't see any option for that.

Set the percent of amnestied illegals who become citizens to 0%.

Oh I see, I thought that was including the normal amount of aliens who would become citizens anyway, not only those who would do so through amnesty.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is absolutely awesome. Actually, there needs to be a new word to express how great it is.

There is only one thing I don't get: how comes that, when you toy around with the "immigration reform" buttons (the one on the top, left of the maps), the outcome of the 2012 election is affected? The margin goes from 3.8 (actual margin) with no immigration reform, to 6.8 when both bars are at 100%. By definition, the reform will only be implemented after the election, so how can it change 2012 results (even if not by much)?

I assume it's based on the hypothetical scenario where it was implemented prior to the 2012 election, for comparison purposes.

Oh, I see. Still interesting, I guess. So a "fully successful" immigration reform gives Democrats a +3 bonus in 2012,  +2.8 in 2016, +2.6 in 2020, +2.4 in 2028, and eventually +1.6 in 2048. Still significant, but not nearly as much as demographics.

BTW, with such a successful immigration reform and assuming voting percentages among minorities stay the same, by 2048 Democrats could win 31% of the white vote and still win the election! It's 32% with a mildly successful reform (50% and 50%), and still 32% with no reform at all.

Also, by 2048, without immigration reform, if Democrats win the same 2PV percentage among whites (40%), they could win only 85% of blacks, 55% of hispanics, 45% of Asians and 55% of others and still win anyway. Wow.

[Mr. Morden]

So they use these numbers to calculate a state-by-state breakdown of House seat allocation, but only give you the EV totals, not how many EVs they expect each state to have in each election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So they use these numbers to calculate a state-by-state breakdown of House seat allocation, but only give you the EV totals, not how many EVs they expect each state to have in each election?

Yeah, that sucks. We should ask Nate to add that feature.

[Benj]

It's also interesting to see what it takes to get a Republican victory in 2012.  40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote combined with a mere 12% of Blacks would have done it.

Another interesting thing is how hugely important Florida becomes to post-2020 Dems in the electoral college.  If the Dems fall into the 30's with the white vote, the Republicans end up with a huge advantage in the electoral college until Florida and/or Arizona become a Dem-leaning states because they flip most of the Midwest.  I wouldn't be surprised if Florida is left of WI, MN, and IA in the 2020's if current coalitions hold. 

Alternatively, assuming the GOP improves it's image with minority voters after immigration reform to such an extent that it gets 40% of the Hispanic and Asian vote, the Democrats only need to get up to 42%-43% of the white vote to compensate.  So the conservative base risk to the GOP from immigration reform is real.

Meh. Problem is that it assumes changes in both demographic indicators and voting patterns are uniform across the country. Which of course they never are (e.g., black population is surging in Georgia but dropping in the Northeast; whites are becoming more Republican in the South but more Democratic in the Pacific Northwest).