HI 2014 Congressional Elections

[Vega]

Curious…

Is Hanabusa's relatively high chance (at least for a challenger to an incumbent) of winning the seat more related to legacy, ethnicity, or ties to Abercrombie?

I know very little about Hawaiian politics, but I do know that Hawaii has a very large native Hawaiian and Asian population. Is Hanabusa's candidacy buoyed by these demographics? I also wonder if Schatz's ties with Abercrombie could haunt him on Election Day.

Ethnicity and Legacy don't hurt her, but I'm not sure if they alone would carry her to victory. Given how unpopular Abercrombie is, maybe that sways a few voters to her side.

Interestingly, Abercrombie is paying more for appointing Schatz than Schatz is for being appointed by Abercrombie.

[NHLiberal]

Curious…

Is Hanabusa's relatively high chance (at least for a challenger to an incumbent) of winning the seat more related to legacy, ethnicity, or ties to Abercrombie?

I know very little about Hawaiian politics, but I do know that Hawaii has a very large native Hawaiian and Asian population. Is Hanabusa's candidacy buoyed by these demographics? I also wonder if Schatz's ties with Abercrombie could haunt him on Election Day.

Ethnicity and Legacy don't hurt her, but I'm not sure if they alone would carry her to victory. Given how unpopular Abercrombie is, maybe that sways a few voters to her side.

Interestingly, Abercrombie is paying more for appointing Schatz than Schatz is for being appointed by Abercrombie.

While I agree that it's surprising, logically that's how it should be. As someone said yesterday, it's not like Schatz was going to turn down the appointment.

[Panda Express]

If Abercrombie and Fitch both lose this weekend to Ige and Hanabusa, that will go down as one of the biggest political ownings (for Abercrombie) in recent history

[cinyc]

Walk-in early voting ended four hours early at noon on the Big Island today.  Not that I'd expect many people going out to vote in pre-hurricane conditions to begin with.  Early voting hours were extended last night.

Hurricane Iselle is expected to make landfall on the Big Island later today, as a marginal hurricane or strong tropical storm.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

538 referenced the Atlas for data in its latest article on this race: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/racial-voting-lines-in-hawaii-senate-primary-leave-pollsters-mostly-clueless/

[cinyc]

Iselle didn't do much damage to the Big Island.  The center made landfall as a Tropical Storm a good distance south of Hilo, near Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in a relatively unpopulated area.  It brought a lot of rain to the windward side of the Big Island - over a foot in some places - and, as would be expected, brought down some trees.  About 22,000 customers lost power on the Big Island.  Yet some areas on the leeward side of the island, especially where the major resorts are, didn't see a drop of rain or much in the way of winds.  Mauna Loa protected that side of the island and ripped Iselle to shreds.

The primary election will go on as scheduled tomorrow, with possible precinct consolidations if the polling place doubles as an active hurricane shelter.  Only 17 polling places statewide could be affected - and some are on Oahu and Kauai, which will be least affected by the storm.  I think the most you might see is a precinct consolidation or two on the Big Island.

[Vega]

Iselle didn't do much damage to the Big Island.  The center made landfall as a Tropical Storm a good distance south of Hilo, near Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in a relatively unpopulated area.  It brought a lot of rain to the windward side of the Big Island - over a foot in some places - and, as would be expected, brought down some trees.  About 22,000 customers lost power on the Big Island.  Yet some areas on the leeward side of the island, especially where the major resorts are, didn't see a drop of rain or much in the way of winds.  Mauna Loa protected that side of the island and ripped Iselle to shreds.

The primary election will go on as scheduled tomorrow, with possible precinct consolidations if the polling place doubles as an active hurricane shelter.  Only 17 polling places statewide could be affected - and some are on Oahu and Kauai, which will be least affected by the storm.  I think the most you might see is a precinct consolidation or two on the Big Island.

Thank god. I have some family on the Big Island who live in Hilo, they said it wasn't anything bad too. Just alot of rain.

Dodged a bullet.

[Vega]

I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

[cinyc]

I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

Hawaii News Now reports: "Roads leading to Hawaii Paradise Community Center (04-01) and Keoneopoko Elementary School (04-02) polling places are closed. “According to Hawaii County Civil Defense, the damage to roadways have left some communities in Puna isolated,” Nago says."

Voters cast 1,120 and 1,029 election day ballots in those precincts, respectively, in the 2012 Democratic Primary.  Hirono beat Case with 61-64% of the vote, 4-7 points better than she did statewide and about on par with her performance in Hawaii County.

[Vega]

I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

Hawaii News Now reports: "Roads leading to Hawaii Paradise Community Center (04-01) and Keoneopoko Elementary School (04-02) polling places are closed. “According to Hawaii County Civil Defense, the damage to roadways have left some communities in Puna isolated,” Nago says."

Voters cast 1,120 and 1,029 election day ballots in those precincts, respectively, in the 2012 Democratic Primary.  Hirono beat Case with 61-64% of the vote, 4-7 points better than she did statewide and about on par with her performance in Hawaii County.

Well, if the race is close, than those ballots will really be needed.

[Keystone Phil]

What time do the polls close tonight?

[Vega]

What time do the polls close tonight?

6:00 PM. Midnight here.

[JRP1994]

What time do the polls close tonight?

6:00 PM. Midnight here.

Why not 11pm as in Presidential elections?

[cinyc]

What time do the polls close tonight?

6:00 PM. Midnight here.

Why not 11pm as in Presidential elections?

Daylight Savings Time.  Hawaii doesn't observe it, so it's 6 hours behind the east coast in summer.

[Miles]

Well, I can legitimately say I feel like the freakin tea party after Mississippi.

So disappointing.

[Vega]

At least Donna Kim lost, and now she's saying she'll step down as Senate President. So that's good.

[Flake]

Congratulations Senator Schatz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congratulations Senator Schatz.

I'll only celebrate after those two goddamn precincts cast their votes.

[Vega]

Congratulations Senator Schatz.

I'll only celebrate after those two goddamn precincts cast their votes.

Last election 2,000 of the 8,000 eligible voters actually voted in those two precincts, because of the storm that number will certainly be down.

That would mean that Hanabusa would have to win 1,500 votes, assuming that many people even vote, and she still would narrowly lose.

At this point, Schatz will win.

[free my dawg]

Thank God. I'm even more relieved than when Cochran got elected.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Glorious news. The closeness of her loss should augment the burn of losing a race which she never deserved to win in the first place. This is a victory against seat entitlement and for the liberal wing of the party.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats' War on Women continues.

[Vega]

It seems like there is this weird talking point from every Hawaii Republican I've seen when it comes to the Congressional District 1 race.

They have been saying essentially "Well, because the House of Representatives is going to be Republican controlled, elect a Republican here in Hawaii so he can be part of the Majority".

[RodPresident]

And how do you think that Tulsi Gabbard would do in a primary against Schatz in 2016?

[free my dawg]

And how do you think that Tulsi Gabbard would do in a primary against Schatz in 2016?

I think she'd lose, considering there's no Inouye factor.